This paper will propose a novel machine learning based portfolio management method in the context of the cryptocurrency market. Previous researchers mainly focus on the prediction of the movement for specific cryptocurrency such as the bitcoin(BTC) and then trade according to the prediction. In contrast to the previous work that treats the cryptocurrencies independently, this paper manages a group of cryptocurrencies by analyzing the relative relationship. Specifically, in each time step, we utilize the neural network to predict the rank of the future return of the managed cryptocurrencies and place weights accordingly. By incorporating such cross-sectional information, the proposed methods is shown to profitable based on the backtesting experiments on the real daily cryptocurrency market data from May, 2020 to Nov, 2023. During this 3.5 years, the market experiences the full cycle of bullish, bearish and stagnant market conditions. Despite under such complex market conditions, the proposed method outperforms the existing methods and achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.01 and annualized return of 64.26%. Additionally, the proposed method is shown to be robust to the increase of transaction fee.

In electricity markets around the world, the ability to anticipate price movements with precision can be the difference between profit and loss, especially for fast-acting assets like battery energy storage systems (BESS). As grid volatility increases due to renewables and market decentralisation, operators and forecasters alike face growing pressure to transform prediction into strategy. Yet while forecast data is abundant, especially in advanced markets like Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM), its practical value in driving real-world BESS trading decisions remains largely unexplored. This thesis dives into that gap. This work addresses a key research question: Can the accuracy of the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) energy price forecasts be systematically leveraged to develop a reliable and profitable battery energy storage system trading algorithm? Despite the availability of AEMO price forecasts, no existing framework evaluates their reliability or incorporates them into practical BESS trading strategies. By analysing patterns in forecast accuracy based on time of day, forecast horizon, and regional variations, this project creates a novel, forecast-informed BESS trading model to optimise arbitrage financial returns. The performance of this forecast-driven algorithm is benchmarked against a basic trading algorithm with no knowledge of forecast data. The study further explores the potential of machine learning techniques to predict future energy prices by enhancing AEMO forecasts to govern a more advanced trading strategy. The research outcomes will inform future improvements in energy market trading models and promote more efficient BESS integration into market operations.

Predicting Bitcoin price remains a challenging problem due to the high volatility and complex non-linear dynamics of cryptocurrency markets. Traditional time-series models, such as ARIMA and GARCH, and recurrent neural networks, like LSTMs, have been widely applied to this task but struggle to capture the regime shifts and long-range dependencies inherent in the data. In this work, we propose CryptoMamba, a novel Mamba-based State Space Model (SSM) architecture designed to effectively capture long-range dependencies in financial time-series data. Our experiments show that CryptoMamba not only provides more accurate predictions but also offers enhanced generalizability across different market conditions, surpassing the limitations of previous models. Coupled with trading algorithms for real-world scenarios, CryptoMamba demonstrates its practical utility by translating accurate forecasts into financial outcomes. Our findings signal a huge advantage for SSMs in stock and cryptocurrency price forecasting tasks.

Advances in artificial intelligence risk destabilising the financial markets, a Bank of England policymaker is warning today. Jonathan Hall, an external member of our Financial Policy Committee (FPC), argues that market stability could be threatened if deep neural networks – programs that uses multiple layers of artificial neurons to process information – were turned into deep trading agents, which select and execute trading strategies. Hall tells the University of Exeter Business School that AI traders could amplify shocks and undermine market stability. Hall cites a well-known example of AI confusion, where researches taught a system what a panda looked like, and then added noise to the picture of a panda – leading the AI system to declare that the animal was almost certainly a gibbon. From a financial stability perspective, this raises the question of whether through bad luck, or targeted malicious behaviour, a tiny change in market prices could abruptly shift the trading signal from "buy" to "strong sell"? And, unlike in the image example, it would be extremely difficult for a human to know whether that sudden shift was the result of a model error, or indicated some important, but inscrutable, information in the pattern of prices.

In this paper, we introduce DeepTraderX (DTX), a simple Deep Learning-based trader, and present results that demonstrate its performance in a multi-threaded market simulation. In a total of about 500 simulated market days, DTX has learned solely by watching the prices that other strategies produce. By doing this, it has successfully created a mapping from market data to quotes, either bid or ask orders, to place for an asset. Trained on historical Level-2 market data, i.e., the Limit Order Book (LOB) for specific tradable assets, DTX processes the market state $S$ at each timestep $T$ to determine a price $P$ for market orders. The market data used in both training and testing was generated from unique market schedules based on real historic stock market data. DTX was tested extensively against the best strategies in the literature, with its results validated by statistical analysis. Our findings underscore DTX's capability to rival, and in many instances, surpass, the performance of public-domain traders, including those that outclass human traders, emphasising the efficiency of simple models, as this is required to succeed in intricate multi-threaded simulations. This highlights the potential of leveraging "black-box" Deep Learning systems to create more efficient financial markets.

We approach the problem of designing an automated trading strategy that can consistently profit by adapting to changing market conditions. This challenge can be framed as a Nonstationary Continuum-Armed Bandit (NCAB) problem. To solve the NCAB problem, we propose PRBO, a novel trading algorithm that uses Bayesian optimization and a ``bandit-over-bandit'' framework to dynamically adjust strategy parameters in response to market conditions. We use Bristol Stock Exchange (BSE) to simulate financial markets containing heterogeneous populations of automated trading agents and compare PRBO with PRSH, a reference trading strategy that adapts strategy parameters through stochastic hill-climbing. Results show that PRBO generates significantly more profit than PRSH, despite having fewer hyperparameters to tune. The code for PRBO and performing experiments is available online open-source (https://github.com/HarmoniaLeo/PRZI-Bayesian-Optimisation).

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a branch of machine learning that has been used in a variety of applications such as robotics, game playing, and autonomous systems. In recent years, there has been growing interest in applying RL to quantitative trading, where the goal is to make profitable trades in financial markets. This paper explores the use of RL in quantitative trading and presents a case study of a RL-based trading algorithm. The results show that RL can be a powerful tool for quantitative trading, and that it has the potential to outperform traditional trading algorithms. The use of reinforcement learning in quantitative trading represents a promising area of research that can potentially lead to the development of more sophisticated and effective trading systems. Future work could explore the use of alternative reinforcement learning algorithms, incorporate additional data sources, and test the system on different asset classes. Overall, our research demonstrates the potential of using reinforcement learning in quantitative trading and highlights the importance of continued research and development in this area. By developing more sophisticated and effective trading systems, we can potentially improve the efficiency of financial markets and generate greater returns for investors.

Financial regulation is forever running to catch up with evolving technology. There are many examples of this: the Second Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II) sought to make up ground on the increased electronification of markets since the introduction of MiFID I; policymakers in both the EU and the UK are at this very moment defining the regulatory perimeter around cryptoassets, more than a decade after the initial launch of bitcoin; and regulators first took action against runaway algorithms long before restrictions on algorithmic trading made it into regulatory rulebooks. Continuing this trend, on 11 October 2022, the Bank of England (BoE) and the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) launched a joint discussion paper on how the UK regulators should approach the "safe and responsible" adoption of AI in financial services (FCA DP22/4 and BoE DP5/22) (the AI Discussion Paper), which is now open for responses. This follows the UK Government's Command Paper published in July 2022, announcing a "pro-innovation" approach to regulating AI (CP 728) across different sectors. One strong theme that comes out of the AI Discussion Paper is that, notwithstanding the potential benefits of AI in fostering innovation and reducing costs in financial services, the human factor is key to ensure that AI is governed and overseen responsibly and that potential negative impacts on clients and other stakeholders are mitigated appropriately.

Financial regulation is forever running to catch up with evolving technology. There are many examples of this: the Second Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II) sought to make up ground on the increased electronification of markets since the introduction of MiFID I; policymakers in both the EU and the UK are at this very moment defining the regulatory perimeter around cryptoassets, more than a decade after the initial launch of bitcoin; and regulators first took action against runaway algorithms long before restrictions on algorithmic trading made it into regulatory rulebooks. Continuing this trend, on 11 October 2022, the Bank of England (BoE) and the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) launched a joint discussion paper on how the UK regulators should approach the "safe and responsible" adoption of AI in financial services (FCA DP22/4 and BoE DP5/22) (the AI Discussion Paper), which is now open for responses. This follows the UK Government's Command Paper published in July 2022, announcing a "pro-innovation" approach to regulating AI (CP 728) across different sectors. One strong theme that comes out of the AI Discussion Paper is that, notwithstanding the potential benefits of AI in fostering innovation and reducing costs in financial services, the human factor is key to ensure that AI is governed and overseen responsibly and that potential negative impacts on clients and other stakeholders are mitigated appropriately. The fact that the regulators are consulting on bringing the oversight of AI expressly within the scope of the UK Senior Managers and Certifications Regime (SMCR) illustrates the importance of this human element, and that humans should continue to run the machines, rather than the other way around.

Python was used to download and format NewsAPI article data relating to 400 publicly traded, low cap. Biotech companies. Crowd-sourcing was used to label a subset of this data to then train and evaluate a variety of models to classify the public sentiment of each company. The best performing models were then used to show that trading entirely off public sentiment could provide market beating returns.