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Bridging the Clinical Expertise Gap: Development of a Web-Based Platform for Accessible Time Series Forecasting and Analysis

Mullen, Aaron D., Harris, Daniel R., Slavova, Svetla, Bumgardner, V. K. Cody

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series forecasting has applications across domains and industries, especially in healthcare, but the technical expertise required to analyze data, build models, and interpret results can be a barrier to using these techniques. This article presents a web platform that makes the process of analyzing and plotting data, training forecasting models, and interpreting and viewing results accessible to researchers and clinicians. Users can upload data and generate plots to showcase their variables and the relationships between them. The platform supports multiple forecasting models and training techniques which are highly customizable according to the user's needs. Additionally, recommendations and explanations can be generated from a large language model that can help the user choose appropriate parameters for their data and understand the results for each model. The goal is to integrate this platform into learning health systems for continuous data collection and inference from clinical pipelines.


A Selective Temporal Hamming distance to find patterns in state transition event timeseries, at scale

Marié, Sylvain, Knecht, Pablo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Discrete event systems are present both in observations of nature, socio economical sciences, and industrial systems. Standard analysis approaches do not usually exploit their dual event / state nature: signals are either modeled as transition event sequences, emphasizing event order alignment, or as categorical or ordinal state timeseries, usually resampled a distorting and costly operation as the observation period and number of events grow. In this work we define state transition event timeseries (STE-ts) and propose a new Selective Temporal Hamming distance (STH) leveraging both transition time and duration-in-state, avoiding costly and distorting resampling on large databases. STH generalizes both resampled Hamming and Jaccard metrics with better precision and computation time, and an ability to focus on multiple states of interest. We validate these benefits on simulated and real-world datasets.




": As will

Neural Information Processing Systems

We thank the reviewers for their insightful feedback. In the following, we address their concerns and questions. ": There is a big misunderstanding. The table above shows that the proposed model performs best. ": Deep SVDD uses only one center and one layer, while we have multiple centers ( 's, the key challenge is on what contribution Indeed, these have been discussed at lines 115-116 and 126-128.


Machine Learning for Sustainable Rice Production: Region-Scale Monitoring of Water-Saving Practices in Punjab, India

Shah, Ando, Singh, Rajveer, Zaytar, Akram, Tadesse, Girmaw Abebe, Robinson, Caleb, Tafti, Negar, Wood, Stephen A., Dodhia, Rahul, Ferres, Juan M. Lavista

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In regions like Punjab, India, where groundwater levels are plummeting at 41.6 cm/year, adopting water-saving rice farming practices is critical. Direct-Seeded Rice (DSR) and Alternate Wetting and Drying (A WD) can cut irrigation water use by 20-40% without hurting yields, yet lack of spatial data on adoption impedes effective adaptation policy and climate action. We present a machine learning framework to bridge this data gap by monitoring sustainable rice farming at scale. In collaboration with agronomy experts and a large-scale farmer training program, we obtained ground-truth data from 1,400 fields across Punjab. Leveraging this partnership, we developed a novel dimensional classification approach that decouples sowing and irrigation practices, achieving F1 scores of 0.8 and 0.74 respectively, solely employing Sentinel-1 satellite imagery. Explainability analysis reveals that DSR classification is robust while A WD classification depends primarily on planting schedule differences, as Sentinel-1's 12-day revisit frequency cannot capture the higher frequency irrigation cycles characteristic of A WD practices. Applying this model across 3 million fields reveals spatial heterogeneity in adoption at the state level, highlighting gaps and opportunities for policy targeting. Our district-level adoption rates correlate well with government estimates (Spearman's ρ=0.69 and Rank Biased Overlap=0.77). This study provides policymakers and sustainability programs a powerful tool to track practice adoption, inform targeted interventions, and drive data-driven policies for water conservation and climate mitigation at regional scale.


47a3893cc405396a5c30d91320572d6d-AuthorFeedback.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

We find that although Masking is very expensive, it does not perform well. We will include a more detailed discussion. S ( X) is network output i.e. S Upon your suggestion, we generated a new dataset with the advised setting. We will include this dataset along with more datasets generated using HMMs and state models in the benchmark. We will consider replacing GradientSHAP with SHAP in our final draft.


": As will

Neural Information Processing Systems

We thank the reviewers for their insightful feedback. In the following, we address their concerns and questions. ": There is a big misunderstanding. The table above shows that the proposed model performs best. ": Deep SVDD uses only one center and one layer, while we have multiple centers ( 's, the key challenge is on what contribution Indeed, these have been discussed at lines 115-116 and 126-128.


47a3893cc405396a5c30d91320572d6d-AuthorFeedback.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

We find that although Masking is very expensive, it does not perform well. We will include a more detailed discussion. S ( X) is network output i.e. S Upon your suggestion, we generated a new dataset with the advised setting. We will include this dataset along with more datasets generated using HMMs and state models in the benchmark. We will consider replacing GradientSHAP with SHAP in our final draft.


A Bayesian Dynamical System Model of Joint Action and Interpersonal Coordination

Lee, Andrew Jun, Miao, Grace Qiyuan, Dale, Rick, Galati, Alexia, Lu, Hongjing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Successful teamwork depends on interpersonal dynamics, the ways in which individuals coordinate, influence, and adapt to one another over time. Existing measures of interpersonal dynamics, such as CRQA, correlation, Granger causality, and transfer entropy, typically capture only a single dimension: either the synchrony/coordination or the direction of influence between individuals. What is missing is a psychologically meaningful representation that unifies these dimensions and varies systematically with behavior. We propose the "context matrix" as one such representation. The context matrix, modeled within a linear dynamical system, has psychologically interpretable entries specifying how much each individual's current behavior is attributable to their own versus every other group member's past behaviors. Critically, these entries can be distilled into summary features that represent synchrony and directional influence. Evidence for the context matrix as psychologically meaningful is provided in two steps. First, we develop a sequential Bayesian model that infers context matrices from timeseries data and show that it accurately recovers them in noisy simulations. Second, applying the model to human eyetracking data, we demonstrate that summary features of the inferred context matrices capture expected task-based differences in interpersonal dynamics (or lack thereof), predict task accuracy in psychologically reasonable ways, and show some correspondence with existing measures (CRQA and Granger causality). We conclude by situating the context matrix within a broader agenda for modeling interpersonal dynamics in joint action.