Accurate weather forecasting across time scales is critical for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recent data-driven methods based on deep learning have achieved significant success in the medium range, but struggle at longer subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) horizons due to error accumulation in their autoregressive approach. In this work, we propose OmniCast, a scalable and skillful probabilistic model that unifies weather forecasting across timescales. OmniCast consists of two components, a VAE model that encodes raw weather data into a continuous, lower-dimensional latent space, and a diffusion-based transformer model that generates a sequence of future latent tokens given the initial conditioning tokens. During training, we mask random future tokens and train the transformer to estimate their distribution given conditioning and visible tokens using a per-token diffusion head. During inference, the transformer generates the full sequence of future tokens by iteratively unmasking random subsets of tokens.

Continuous time systems are often modeled using discrete time dynamics but this requires a small simulation step to maintain accuracy. In turn, this requires a large planning horizon which leads to computationally demanding planning problems and reduced performance. Previous work in model-free reinforcement learning has partially addressed this issue using action repeats where a policy is learned to determine a discrete action duration. Instead we propose to control the continuous decision timescale directly by using temporally-extended actions and letting the planner treat the duration of the action as an additional optimization variable along with the standard action variables. This additional structure has multiple advantages. It speeds up simulation time of trajectories and, importantly, it allows for deep horizon search in terms of primitive actions while using a shallow search depth in the planner. In addition, in the model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) setting, it reduces compounding errors from model learning and improves training time for models. We show that this idea is effective and that the range for action durations can be automatically selected using a multi-armed bandit formulation and integrated into the MBRL framework. An extensive experimental evaluation both in planning and in MBRL, shows that our approach yields faster planning, better solutions, and that it enables solutions to problems that are not solved in the standard formulation.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of generative tasks. A key challenge is understanding the mechanisms that prevent their memorization of training data and allow generalization. In this work, we investigate the role of the training dynamics in the transition from generalization to memorization. Through extensive experiments and theoretical analysis, we identify two distinct timescales: an early time τgen at which models begin to generate high-quality samples, and a later time τmem beyond which memorization emerges. Crucially, we find that τmem increases linearly with the training set size n, while τgen remains constant. This creates a growing window of training times with n where models generalize effectively, despite showing strong memorization if training continues beyond it. It is only when nbecomes larger than a model-dependent threshold that overfitting disappears at infinite training times. These findings reveal a form of implicit dynamical regularization in the training dynamics, which allow to avoid memorization even in highly overparameterized settings. Our results are supported by numerical experiments with standard U-Net architectures on realistic and synthetic datasets, and by a theoretical analysis using a tractable random features model studied in the high-dimensional limit.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate η and weight decay λ. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work [1] suggests the AdamW timescale, τ = B/(ηλD), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal λscales linearly with B, for a fixed N and D. However, as N and Dscale, we show optimal τ obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict λopt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast to prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

The energy paradigm, exemplified by Hopfield networks, offers a principled framework for memory in neural systems by interpreting dynamics as descent on an energy surface. While powerful for static associative memories, it falls short in modeling sequential memory, where transitions between memories are essential. We introduce the Exponential Dynamic Energy Network (EDEN), a novel architecture that extends the energy paradigm to temporal domains by evolving the energy function over multiple timescales. EDEN combines a static high-capacity energy network with a slow, asymmetrically interacting modulatory population, enabling robust and controlled memory transitions. We formally derive short-timescale energy functions that govern local dynamics and use them to analytically compute memory escape times, revealing a phase transition between static and dynamic regimes. The analysis of capacity, defined as the number of memories that can be stored with minimal error rate as a function of the dimensions of the state space (number of feature neurons), for EDEN shows that it achieves exponential sequence memory capacity O(γN), outperforming the linear capacity O(N) of conventional models. Furthermore, EDEN's dynamics resemble the activity of time and ramping cells observed in the human brain during episodic memory tasks, grounding its biological relevance. By unifying static and sequential memory within a dynamic energy framework, EDEN offers a scalable and interpretable model for high-capacity temporal memory in both artificial and biological systems.

Real-time decoding of target variables from multiple simultaneously recorded neural time-series modalities, such as discrete spiking activity and continuous field potentials, is important across various neuroscience applications. However, a major challenge for doing so is that different neural modalities can have different timescales (i.e., sampling rates) and different probabilistic distributions, or can even be missing at some time-steps. Existing nonlinear models of multimodal neural activity do not address different timescales or missing samples across modalities. Further, some of these models do not allow for real-time decoding. Here, we develop a learning framework that can enable real-time recursive decoding while nonlinearly aggregating information across multiple modalities with different timescales and distributions and with missing samples. This framework consists of 1) a multiscale encoder that nonlinearly aggregates information after learning within-modality dynamics to handle different timescales and missing samples in real time, 2) a multiscale dynamical backbone that extracts multimodal temporal dynamics and enables real-time recursive decoding, and 3) modality-specific decoders to account for different probabilistic distributions across modalities. In both simulations and three distinct multiscale brain datasets, we show that our model can aggregate information across modalities with different timescales and distributions and missing samples to improve real-time target decoding. Further, our method outperforms various linear and nonlinear multimodal benchmarks in doing so.

Understanding the inductive bias and generalization properties of large overparametrized machine learning models requires to characterize the dynamics of the training algorithm. We study the learning dynamics of large two-layer neural networks via dynamical mean field theory, a well established technique of nonequilibrium statistical physics. We show that, for large network width m, and large number of samples per input dimension n/d, the training dynamics exhibits a separation of timescales which implies: (i) The emergence of a slow time scale associated with the growth in Gaussian/Rademacher complexity of the network; (ii) Inductive bias towards small complexity if the initialization has small enough complexity; (iii) A dynamical decoupling between feature learning and overfitting regimes; (iv)A non-monotone behavior of the test error, associated'feature unlearning' regime at large times.

The feedback that AI systems (e.g., recommender systems, chatbots) collect from user interactions is a crucial source of training data. While short-term feedback (e.g., clicks, engagement) is widely used for training, there is ample evidence that optimizing short-term feedback does not necessarily achieve the desired long-term objectives. Unfortunately, directly optimizing for long-term objectives is challenging, and we identify the disconnect in the timescales of short-term interventions (e.g., rankings) and the long-term feedback (e.g., user retention) as one of the key obstacles. To overcome this disconnect, we introduce the framework of MultiScale Policy Learning to contextually reconcile that AI systems need to act and optimize feedback at multiple interdependent timescales. Following a PAC-Bayes motivation, we show how the lower timescales with more plentiful data can provide a data-dependent hierarchical prior for faster learning at higher scales, where data is more scarce.

Accurate weather forecasting across time scales is critical for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recent data-driven methods based on deep learning have achieved significant success in the medium range, but struggle at longer subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) horizons due to error accumulation in their autoregressive approach. In this work, we propose OmniCast, a scalable and skillful probabilistic model that unifies weather forecasting across timescales. OmniCast consists of two components: a VAE model that encodes raw weather data into a continuous, lower-dimensional latent space, and a diffusion-based transformer model that generates a sequence of future latent tokens given the initial conditioning tokens. During training, we mask random future tokens and train the transformer to estimate their distribution given conditioning and visible tokens using a per-token diffusion head. During inference, the transformer generates the full sequence of future tokens by iteratively unmasking random subsets of tokens.

The feedback that AI systems (e.g., recommender systems, chatbots) collect from user interactions is a crucial source of training data. While short-term feedback (e.g., clicks, engagement) is widely used for training, there is ample evidence that optimizing short-term feedback does not necessarily achieve the desired long-term objectives. Unfortunately, directly optimizing for long-term objectives is challenging, and we identify the disconnect in the timescales of short-term interventions (e.g., rankings) and the long-term feedback (e.g., user retention) as one of the key obstacles. To overcome this disconnect, we introduce the framework of MultiScale Policy Learning to contextually reconcile that AI systems need to act and optimize feedback at multiple interdependent timescales. Following a PAC-Bayes motivation, we show how the lower timescales with more plentiful data can provide a data-dependent hierarchical prior for faster learning at higher scales, where data is more scarce.