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OnlineForecastingofTotal-Variation-bounded Sequences

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of online forecasting of sequences of lengthn with total-variation at mostCn using observations contaminated by independentσsubgaussian noise. We design anO(nlogn)-time algorithm that achieves a cu-mulativesquare error of O(n1/3C2/3n σ4/3+C2n)with high probability.



Highly Adaptive Principal Component Regression

Wang, Mingxun, Schuler, Alejandro, van der Laan, Mark, Meixide, Carlos García

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Highly Adaptive Lasso (HAL) is a nonparametric regression method that achieves almost dimension-free convergence rates under minimal smoothness assumptions, but its implementation can be computationally prohibitive in high dimensions due to the large basis matrix it requires. The Highly Adaptive Ridge (HAR) has been proposed as a scalable alternative. Building on both procedures, we introduce the Principal Component based Highly Adaptive Lasso (PCHAL) and Principal Component based Highly Adaptive Ridge (PCHAR). These estimators constitute an outcome-blind dimension reduction which offer substantial gains in computational efficiency and match the empirical performances of HAL and HAR. We also uncover a striking spectral link between the leading principal components of the HAL/HAR Gram operator and a discrete sinusoidal basis, revealing an explicit Fourier-type structure underlying the PC truncation.




AdaptiveOnlineEstimationofPiecewisePolynomial Trends

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the framework of non-stationary stochastic optimization [Besbes et al., 2015] with squared error losses and noisy gradient feedback where the dynamic regret ofanonline learner against atime varying comparator sequence isstudied.


AdaptiveOnlineEstimationofPiecewisePolynomial Trends

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the framework of non-stationary stochastic optimization [Besbes et al., 2015] with squared error losses and noisy gradient feedback where the dynamic regret ofanonline learner against atime varying comparator sequence isstudied.