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 thermosphere


CAM-NET: An AI Model for Whole Atmosphere with Thermosphere and Ionosphere Extension

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present Compressible Atmospheric Model-Network (CAM-NET), an AI model designed to predict neutral atmospheric variables from the Earth's surface to the ionosphere with high accuracy and computational efficiency. Accurate modeling of the entire atmosphere is critical for understanding the upward propagation of gravity waves, which influence upper-atmospheric dynamics and coupling across atmospheric layers. CAM-NET leverages the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) to capture global-scale atmospheric dynamics while preserving the Earth's spherical structure. Trained on a decade of datasets from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension (WACCM-X), CAM-NET demonstrates accuracy comparable to WACCM-X while achieving a speedup of over 1000x in inference time, can provide one year simulation within a few minutes once trained. The model effectively predicts key atmospheric parameters, including zonal and meridional winds, temperature, and time rate of pressure. Inspired by traditional modeling approaches that use external couplers to simulate tracer transport, CAM-NET introduces a modular architecture that explicitly separates tracer prediction from core dynamics. The core backbone of CAM-NET focuses on forecasting primary physical variables (e.g., temperature, wind velocity), while tracer variables are predicted through a lightweight, fine-tuned model. This design allows for efficient adaptation to specific tracer scenarios with minimal computational cost, avoiding the need to retrain the entire model. We have validated this approach on the $O^2$ tracer, demonstrating strong performance and generalization capabilities.


NeuralODEs for VLEO simulations: Introducing thermoNET for Thermosphere Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a novel neural architecture termed thermoNET, designed to represent thermospheric density in satellite orbital propagation using a reduced amount of differentiable computations. Due to the appearance of a neural network on the right-hand side of the equations of motion, the resulting satellite dynamics is governed by a NeuralODE, a neural Ordinary Differential Equation, characterized by its fully differentiable nature, allowing the derivation of variational equations (hence of the state transition matrix) and facilitating its use in connection to advanced numerical techniques such as Taylor-based numerical propagation and differential algebraic techniques. Efficient training of the network parameters occurs through two distinct approaches. In the first approach, the network undergoes training independently of spacecraft dynamics, engaging in a pure regression task against ground truth models, including JB-08 and NRLMSISE-00. In the second paradigm, network parameters are learned based on observed dynamics, adapting through ODE sensitivities. In both cases, the outcome is a flexible, compact model of the thermosphere density greatly enhancing numerical propagation efficiency while maintaining accuracy in the orbital predictions.


An Explainable Deep-learning Model of Proton Auroras on Mars

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Proton auroras are widely observed on the day side of Mars, identified as a significant intensity enhancement in the hydrogen Ly alpha (121.6 nm) emission between 120 and 150~km altitudes. Solar wind protons penetrating as energetic neutral atoms into the Martian thermosphere are thought to be responsible for these auroras. Understanding proton auroras is therefore important for characterizing the solar wind interaction with the atmosphere of Mars. Recent observations of spatially localized "patchy" proton auroras suggest a possible direct deposition of protons into the atmosphere of Mars during unstable solar wind conditions. Here, we develop a purely data-driven model of proton auroras using Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) in situ observations and limb scans of Ly alpha emissions between 2014 and 2022. We train an artificial neural network that reproduces individual Ly alpha intensities with a Pearson correlation of 0.95 along with a faithful reconstruction of the observed Ly alpha emission altitude profiles. By performing a SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, we find that Solar Zenith Angle, seasonal CO2 atmosphere variability, solar wind temperature, and density are the most important features for the modelled proton auroras. We also demonstrate that our model can serve as an inexpensive tool for simulating and characterizing Ly alpha response under a variety of seasonal and upstream solar wind conditions.


Reduced Order Probabilistic Emulation for Physics-Based Thermosphere Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The geospace environment is volatile and highly driven. Space weather has effects on Earth's magnetosphere that cause a dynamic and enigmatic response in the thermosphere, particularly on the evolution of neutral mass density. Many models exist that use space weather drivers to produce a density response, but these models are typically computationally expensive or inaccurate for certain space weather conditions. In response, this work aims to employ a probabilistic machine learning (ML) method to create an efficient surrogate for the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), a physics-based thermosphere model. Our method leverages principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of TIE-GCM and recurrent neural networks to model the dynamic behavior of the thermosphere much quicker than the numerical model. The newly developed reduced order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) uses Long-Short Term Memory neural networks to perform time-series forecasting in the reduced state and provide distributions for future density. We show that across the available data, TIE-GCM ROPE has similar error to previous linear approaches while improving storm-time modeling. We also conduct a satellite propagation study for the significant November 2003 storm which shows that TIE-GCM ROPE can capture the position resulting from TIE-GCM density with < 5 km bias. Simultaneously, linear approaches provide point estimates that can result in biases of 7 - 18 km.