For training-data-based model risk prediction, $K$-fold cross-validation~(CV) is widely used to mitigate the well-known over-optimism of the empirical risk and is often regarded as reliable. However, for binary classification via empirical risk minimization, our numerical studies reveal a surprising phenomenon: $K$-fold CV may perform poorly in estimating class-specific risks, even worse than the empirical estimator. We perform a higher-order asymptotic analysis showing that $K$-fold CV may converge at a slower rate, whereas the empirical estimator exhibits a second-order asymptotic bias that explains its over-optimism. These findings motivate a novel two-step procedure for model risk prediction, termed cross-audit projection (CAP). The cross-audit step adopts the same resampling scheme as $K$-fold CV to estimate over-optimism in subsamples, while the asymptotic-theory-informed projection step adjusts for the reduced sample size in bias correction of the empirical risk. The resulting CAP estimator is first-order asymptotically equivalent to the empirical risk while achieving second-order asymptotic unbiasedness. An accompanying inference procedure is also developed. Simulation studies support theoretical advantages of CAP and demonstrate favorable finite-sample performance. An application to breast cancer detection further illustrates the proposed method.

Clustering is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. We propose the first one-bit clustering method for two-component sub-Gaussian mixture models. The method uses only one bit per entry of each sample obtained via a dithered quantizer. Under a mild non-spikiness condition on the cluster centers, we show that a variant of Lloyd's algorithm achieves a misclassification rate that decays exponentially with a signal-to-noise ratio comparable to that in the unquantized setting. This result further implies exact recovery under an explicit separation condition, which exceeds the optimal threshold for unquantized data by only a logarithmic factor. When the dimension $p$ is sufficiently large, the non-spikiness condition can be enforced by applying a random rotation using a Haar distributed matrix prior to quantization. In particular, it holds with high probability when $p \gtrsim 1$ for partial recovery and $p \gtrsim \log n \log\log n$ for exact recovery, where $n$ is the sample size. We also establish a minimax lower bound, showing that the misclassification rate and separation condition exhibit sharp constants in general. Numerical results are provided to corroborate the theory and demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.

Deep learning has exhibited superior performance for various tasks, especially for high-dimensional datasets, such as images. To understand this property, we investigate the approximation and estimation ability of deep learning on anisotropic Besov spaces. The anisotropic Besov space is characterized by direction-dependent smoothness and includes several function classes that have been investigated thus far. We demonstrate that the approximation error and estimation error of deep learning only depend on the average value of the smoothness parameters in all directions. Consequently, the curse of dimensionality can be avoided if the smoothness of the target function is highly anisotropic. Unlike existing studies, our analysis does not require a low-dimensional structure of the input data. We also investigate the minimax optimality of deep learning and compare its performance with that of the kernel method (more generally, linear estimators). The results show that deep learning has better dependence on the input dimensionality if the target function possesses anisotropic smoothness, and it achieves an adaptive rate for functions with spatially inhomogeneous smoothness.

Deep learning has exhibited superior performance for various tasks, especially for high-dimensional datasets, such as images. To understand this property, we investigate the approximation and estimation ability of deep learning on anisotropic Besov spaces. The anisotropic Besov space is characterized by direction-dependent smoothness and includes several function classes that have been investigated thus far. We demonstrate that the approximation error and estimation error of deep learning only depend on the average value of the smoothness parameters in all directions. Consequently, the curse of dimensionality can be avoided if the smoothness of the target function is highly anisotropic. Unlike existing studies, our analysis does not require a low-dimensional structure of the input data. We also investigate the minimax optimality of deep learning and compare its performance with that of the kernel method (more generally, linear estimators). The results show that deep learning has better dependence on the input dimensionality if the target function possesses anisotropic smoothness, and it achieves an adaptive rate for functions with spatially inhomogeneous smoothness.

Variational inference (VI) is a central tool in modern machine learning, used to approximate an intractable target density by optimising over a tractable family of distributions. As the variational family cannot typically represent the target exactly, guarantees on the quality of the resulting approximation are crucial for understanding which of its properties VI can faithfully capture. Recent work has identified instances in which symmetries of the target and the variational family enable the recovery of certain statistics, even under model misspecification. However, these guarantees are inherently problem-specific and offer little insight into the fundamental mechanism by which symmetry forces statistic recovery. In this paper, we overcome this limitation by developing a general theory of symmetry-induced statistic recovery in variational inference. First, we characterise when variational minimisers inherit the symmetries of the target and establish conditions under which these pin down identifiable statistics. Second, we unify existing results by showing that previously known statistic recovery guarantees in location-scale families arise as special cases of our theory. Third, we apply our framework to distributions on the sphere to obtain novel guarantees for directional statistics in von Mises-Fisher families. Together, these results provide a modular blueprint for deriving new recovery guarantees for VI in a broad range of symmetry settings.

When considering a model selection or, more generally, an aggregation approach for adaptive statistical inference, it is often necessary to compute estimators over a wide range of model complexities including unnecessarily large models even when the true data-generating process is relatively simple, due to the lack of prior knowledge. This requirement can lead to substantial computational inefficiency. In this work, we propose a novel framework for efficient model aggregation called the early-stopped aggregation (ESA): instead of computing and aggregating estimators for all candidate models, we compute only a small number of simpler ones using an early-stopping criterion and aggregate only these for final inference. Our framework is versatile and applies to both Bayesian model selection, in particular, within the variational Bayes framework, and frequentist estimation, including a general penalized estimation setting. We investigate adaptive optimal property of the ESA approach across three learning paradigms. We first show that ESA achieves optimal adaptive contraction rates in the variational Bayes setting under mild conditions. We extend this result to variational empirical Bayes, where prior hyperparameters are chosen in a data-dependent manner. In addition, we apply the ESA approach to frequentist aggregation including both penalization-based and sample-splitting implementations, and establish corresponding theory. As we demonstrate, there is a clear unification between early-stopped Bayes and frequentist penalized aggregation, with a common "energy" functional comprising a data-fitting term and a complexity-control term that drives both procedures. We further present several applications and numerical studies that highlight the efficiency and strong performance of the proposed approach.

We exemplify our result in two tasks of interest in statistical learning: a) classification for a mixture with sparse means, wherewestudytheefficiencyof `1penaltywithrespectto `2;b)max-marginmulticlass classification, where we characterise the phase transition on the existence ofthemulti-class logistic maximum likelihood estimator forK >2.

Variational Bayes (VB) is a scalable alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)forBayesian posterior inference.

Inadditiontothememory limitation, there are other important concerns.

The regularizer P λi|b|(i) is a sorted `1-norm (denoted asJλ(b) henceforth), which isnon-separabledue to the sorting operation involved in its calculation.