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 tactis


PrACTiS: Perceiver-Attentional Copulas for Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transformers incorporating copula structures have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series prediction. However, their heavy reliance on self-attention mechanisms demands substantial computational resources, thus limiting their practical utility across a wide range of tasks. In this work, we present a model that combines the perceiver architecture with a copula structure to enhance time-series forecasting. By leveraging the perceiver as the encoder, we efficiently transform complex, high-dimensional, multimodal data into a compact latent space, thereby significantly reducing computational demands. To further reduce complexity, we introduce midpoint inference and local attention mechanisms, enabling the model to capture dependencies within imputed samples effectively. Subsequently, we deploy the copula-based attention and output variance testing mechanism to capture the joint distribution of missing data, while simultaneously mitigating error propagation during prediction. Our experimental results on the unimodal and multimodal benchmarks showcase a consistent 20\% improvement over the state-of-the-art methods, while utilizing less than half of available memory resources.


TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. However, the practical utility of such estimates is limited by how accurately they quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we address the problem of estimating the joint predictive distribution of high-dimensional multivariate time series. We propose a versatile method, based on the transformer architecture, that estimates joint distributions using an attention-based decoder that provably learns to mimic the properties of non-parametric copulas. The resulting model has several desirable properties: it can scale to hundreds of time series, supports both forecasting and interpolation, can handle unaligned and non-uniformly sampled data, and can seamlessly adapt to missing data during training. We demonstrate these properties empirically and show that our model produces state-of-the-art predictions on several real-world datasets.