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Deep Autocorrelation Modeling for Time-Series Forecasting: Progress and Prospects

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Autocorrelation is a defining characteristic of time-series data, where each observation is statistically dependent on its predecessors. In the context of deep time-series forecasting, autocorrelation arises in both the input history and the label sequences, presenting two central research challenges: (1) designing neural architectures that model autocorrelation in history sequences, and (2) devising learning objectives that model autocorrelation in label sequences. Recent studies have made strides in tackling these challenges, but a systematic survey examining both aspects remains lacking. To bridge this gap, this paper provides a comprehensive review of deep time-series forecasting from the perspective of autocorrelation modeling. In contrast to existing surveys, this work makes two distinctive contributions. First, it proposes a novel taxonomy that encompasses recent literature on both model architectures and learning objectives -- whereas prior surveys neglect or inadequately discuss the latter aspect. Second, it offers a thorough analysis of the motivations, insights, and progression of the surveyed literature from a unified, autocorrelation-centric perspective, providing a holistic overview of the evolution of deep time-series forecasting. The full list of papers and resources is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/Awesome-TSF-Papers.



Better Transfer Learning with Inferred Successor Maps

Neural Information Processing Systems

Dayan's SR [3] is well-suited for transfer learning in settings with fixed dynamics, as the decomposition ofthevaluefunction intorepresentations ofexpected outcomes (future stateoccupancies) andcorresponding rewards allowsustoquickly recompute values under newrewardsettings.



e464656edca5e58850f8cec98cbb979b-AuthorFeedback.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

We will add these additional results to the paper. Reviewer mentioned that "the effect of the random initialization23 andshuffling(RIS)inthealgorithm isnotclear".




6174c67b136621f3f2e4a6b1d3286f6b-Supplemental-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

We first discuss the broader impact of the proposed DynamicD inSec. D presents the training dynamics for the further analysis. E also conducts qualitative experiments to verify whether our approach memorizes the real images for extremely limited data. F shows the hyper-parameter analysis. It demonstrates the importance of discriminator in the two-player competition as simply adjusting the capacity could lead tosuch significant improvements on avarietyof settings, making training generative models more accessible to everyone.


AnEmbarrassinglySimpleApproachto Semi-SupervisedFew-ShotLearning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Themostpopular fashion of SSFSL is to predict unlabeled data with pseudo-labels by carefully devising tailored strategies, and then augment the extremely small support set of labeled data in few-shot classification,e.g., [9,15,36].


LearningDistinctandRepresentativeModes forImageCaptioning

Neural Information Processing Systems

While mode collapse is typically a side effect for generative modeling, it is somewhat "welcomed" in SoTA image captioning models as it usually facilitates a higher evaluation performance on reference-based metrics like CIDEr, BLEU and SPICE.