Transformer LMs show emergent reasoning that resists mechanistic understanding. We offer a statistical physics framework for continuous-time chain-of-thought reasoning dynamics. We model sentence-level hidden state trajectories as a stochastic dynamical system on a lower-dimensional manifold. This drift-diffusion system uses latent regime switching to capture diverse reasoning phases, including misaligned states or failures. Empirical trajectories (8 models, 7 benchmarks) show a rank-40 projection (balancing variance capture and feasibility) explains ~50% variance. We find four latent reasoning regimes. An SLDS model is formulated and validated to capture these features. The framework enables low-cost reasoning simulation, offering tools to study and predict critical transitions like misaligned states or other LM failures.

In this paper, we propose a novel model called Recurrent Explicit Duration Switching Linear Dynamical Systems (REDSLDS) that incorporates recurrent explicit duration variables into the rSLDS model. We also propose an inference and learning scheme that involves the use of P\'olya-gamma augmentation. We demonstrate the improved segmentation capabilities of our model on three benchmark datasets, including two quantitative datasets and one qualitative dataset.

We introduce a method for approximate smoothed inference in a class of switching linear dynamical systems, based on a novel form of Gaussian Sum smoother. This class includes the switching Kalman Filter and the more general case of switch transitions dependent on the continuous latent state. The method improves on the standard Kim smoothing approach by dispensing with one of the key approximations, thus making fuller use of the available future information. Whilst the only central assumption required is projection to a mixture of Gaussians, we show that an additional conditional independence assumption results in a simpler but stable and accurate alternative. Unlike the alternative unstable Expectation Propagation procedure, our method consists only of a single forward and backward pass and is reminiscent of the standard smoothing correction' recursions in the simpler linear dynamical system.

Many nonlinear dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. In this paper, we present a nonparametric approach to the learning of an unknown number of persistent, smooth dynamical modes by utilizing a hierarchical Dirichlet process prior. We develop a sampling algorithm that combines a truncated approximation to the Dirichlet process with an efficient joint sampling of the mode and state sequences. The utility and flexibility of our model are demonstrated on synthetic data, sequences of dancing honey bees, and the IBOVESPA stock index.

Many nonlinear dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. In this paper, we present a nonparametric approach to the learning of an unknown number of persistent, smooth dynamical modes by utilizing a hierarchical Dirichlet process prior. We develop a sampling algorithm that combines a truncated approximation to the Dirichlet process with an efficient joint sampling of the mode and state sequences. The utility and flexibility of our model are demonstrated on synthetic data, sequences of dancing honey bees, and the IBOVESPA stock index.

Many real-world systems studied are governed by complex, nonlinear dynamics. By modeling these dynamics, we can gain insight into how these systems work, make predictions about how they will behave, and develop strategies for controlling them. While there are many methods for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems, existing techniques face a trade off between offering interpretable descriptions and making accurate predictions. Here, we develop a class of models that aims to achieve both simultaneously, smoothly interpolating between simple descriptions and more complex, yet also more accurate models. Our probabilistic model achieves this multi-scale property through a hierarchy of locally linear dynamics that jointly approximate global nonlinear dynamics. We call it the tree-structured recurrent switching linear dynamical system. To fit this model, we present a fully-Bayesian sampling procedure using Polya-Gamma data augmentation to allow for fast and conjugate Gibbs sampling. Through a variety of synthetic and real examples, we show how these models outperform existing methods in both interpretability and predictive capability.

Using movement primitive libraries is an effective means to enable robots to solve more complex tasks. In order to build these movement libraries, current algorithms require a prior segmentation of the demonstration trajectories. A promising approach is to model the trajectory as being generated by a set of Switching Linear Dynamical Systems and inferring a meaningful segmentation by inspecting the transition points characterized by the switching dynamics. With respect to the learning, a nonparametric Bayesian approach is employed utilizing a Gibbs sampler.

The switch 5t may depend on both the previous 5:71 and hkl.

We introduce a method for approximate smoothed inference in a class of switching linear dynamical systems, based on a novel form of Gaussian Sum smoother. This class includes the switching Kalman Filter and the more general case of switch transitions dependent on the continuous latent state. The method improves on the standard Kim smoothing approach by dispensing with one of the key approximations, thus making fuller use of the available future information. Whilst the only central assumption required is projection to a mixture of Gaussians, we show that an additional conditional independence assumption results in a simpler but stable and accurate alternative. Unlike the alternative unstable Expectation Propagation procedure, our method consists only of a single forward and backward pass and is reminiscent of the standard smoothing'correction' recursions in the simpler linear dynamical system. The algorithm performs well on both toy experiments and in a large scale application to noise robust speech recognition.

We introduce a method for approximate smoothed inference in a class of switching linear dynamical systems, based on a novel form of Gaussian Sum smoother. This class includes the switching Kalman Filter and the more general case of switch transitions dependent on the continuous latent state. The method improves on the standard Kim smoothing approach by dispensing with one of the key approximations, thus making fuller use of the available future information. Whilst the only central assumption required is projection to a mixture of Gaussians, we show that an additional conditional independence assumption results in a simpler but stable and accurate alternative. Unlike the alternative unstable Expectation Propagation procedure, our method consists only of a single forward and backward pass and is reminiscent of the standard smoothing'correction' recursions in the simpler linear dynamical system. The algorithm performs well on both toy experiments and in a large scale application to noise robust speech recognition.