Model selection in Gaussian processes scales prohibitively with the size of the training dataset, both in time and memory. While many approximations exist, all incur inevitable approximation error. Recent work accounts for this error in the form of computational uncertainty, which enables--at the cost of quadratic complexity--an explicit tradeoff between computational efficiency and precision. Here we extend this development to model selection, which requires significant enhancements to the existing approach, including linear-time scaling in the size of the dataset. We propose a novel training loss for hyperparameter optimization and demonstrate empirically that the resulting method can outperform SGPR, CGGP and SVGP, state-of-the-art methods for GP model selection, on medium to large-scale datasets. Our experiments show that model selection for computation-aware GPs trained on 1.8 million data points can be done within a few hours on a single GPU. As a result of this work, Gaussian processes can be trained on large-scale datasets without significantly compromising their ability to quantify uncertainty-- a fundamental prerequisite for optimal decision-making.

High-dimensional Bayesian optimization (BO) tasks such as molecular design often require $> 10,$$000$ function evaluations before obtaining meaningful results. While methods like sparse variational Gaussian processes (SVGPs) reduce computational requirements in these settings, the underlying approximations result in suboptimal data acquisitions that slow the progress of optimization. In this paper we modify SVGPs to better align with the goals of BO: targeting informed data acquisition over global posterior fidelity. Using the framework of utility-calibrated variational inference (Lacoste-Julien et al., 2011), we unify GP approximation and data acquisition into a joint optimization problem, thereby ensuring optimal decisions under a limited computational budget. Our approach can be used with any decision-theoretic acquisition function and is readily compatible with trust region methods like TuRBO (Eriksson et al., 2019). We derive efficient joint objectives for the expected improvement (EI) and knowledge gradient (KG) acquisition functions in both the standard and batch BO settings. On a variety of recent high dimensional benchmark tasks in control and molecular design, our approach significantly outperforms standard SVGPs and is capable of achieving comparable rewards with up to $10\times$ fewer function evaluations.

With a principled representation of uncertainty and closed form posterior updates, Gaussian processes (GPs) are a natural choice for online decision making. However, Gaussian processes typically require at least $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ computations for $n$ training points, limiting their general applicability. Stochastic variational Gaussian processes (SVGPs) can provide scalable inference for a dataset of fixed size, but are difficult to efficiently condition on new data. We propose online variational conditioning (OVC), a procedure for efficiently conditioning SVGPs in an online setting that does not require re-training through the evidence lower bound with the addition of new data. OVC enables the pairing of SVGPs with advanced look-ahead acquisition functions for black-box optimization, even with non-Gaussian likelihoods. We show OVC provides compelling performance in a range of applications including active learning of malaria incidence, and reinforcement learning on MuJoCo simulated robotic control tasks.

Despite a large corpus of recent work on scaling up Gaussian processes, a stubborn trade-off between computational speed, prediction and uncertainty quantification accuracy, and customizability persists. This is because the vast majority of existing methodologies exploit various levels of approximations that lower accuracy and limit the flexibility of kernel and noise-model designs -- an unacceptable drawback at a time when expressive non-stationary kernels are on the rise in many fields. Here, we propose a methodology we term \emph{gp2Scale} that scales exact Gaussian processes to more than 10 million data points without relying on inducing points, kernel interpolation, or neighborhood-based approximations, and instead leveraging the existing capabilities of a GP: its kernel design. Highly flexible, compactly supported, and non-stationary kernels lead to the identification of naturally occurring sparse structure in the covariance matrix, which is then exploited for the calculations of the linear system solution and the log-determinant for training. We demonstrate our method's functionality on several real-world datasets and compare it with state-of-the-art approximation algorithms. Although we show superior approximation performance in many cases, the method's real power lies in its agnosticism toward arbitrary GP customizations -- core kernel design, noise, and mean functions -- and the type of input space, making it optimally suited for modern Gaussian process applications.

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) offer a promising alternative to Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) by placing learnable univariate functions on network edges, enhancing interpretability. However, standard KANs lack probabilistic outputs, limiting their utility in applications requiring uncertainty quantification. While recent Gaussian Process (GP) extensions to KANs address this, they utilize exact inference methods that scale cubically with data size N, restricting their application to smaller datasets. We introduce the Sparse Variational GP-KAN (SVGP-KAN), an architecture that integrates sparse variational inference with the KAN topology. By employing $M$ inducing points and analytic moment matching, our method reduces computational complexity from $O(N^3)$ to $O(NM^2)$ or linear in sample size, enabling the application of probabilistic KANs to larger scientific datasets. Furthermore, we demonstrate that integrating a permutation-based importance analysis enables the network to function as a framework for structural identification, identifying relevant inputs and classifying functional relationships.

Model selection in Gaussian processes scales prohibitively with the size of the training dataset, both in time and memory. While many approximations exist, all incur inevitable approximation error. Recent work accounts for this error in the form of computational uncertainty, which enables--at the cost of quadratic complexity--an explicit tradeoff between computational efficiency and precision. Here we extend this development to model selection, which requires significant enhancements to the existing approach, including linear-time scaling in the size of the dataset. We propose a novel training loss for hyperparameter optimization and demonstrate empirically that the resulting method can outperform SGPR, CGGP and SVGP, state-of-the-art methods for GP model selection, on medium to large-scale datasets. Our experiments show that model selection for computation-aware GPs trained on 1.8 million data points can be done within a few hours on a single GPU. As a result of this work, Gaussian processes can be trained on large-scale datasets without significantly compromising their ability to quantify uncertainty-- a fundamental prerequisite for optimal decision-making.