Understanding how events in a scenario causally connect with each other is important for effectively modeling and reasoning about events. But event reasoning remains a difficult challenge, and despite recent advances, Large Language Models (LLMs) still struggle to accurately identify causal connections between events. This struggle leads to poor performance on deeper reasoning tasks like event forecasting and timeline understanding. To address this challenge, we investigate the generation of causal event graphs (e.g., A enables B) as a parallel mechanism to help LLMs explicitly represent causality during inference. This paper evaluates both how to generate correct graphs as well as how graphs can assist reasoning. We propose a collaborative approach to causal graph generation where we use LLMs to simulate experts that focus on specific semantic relations. The experts engage in multiple rounds of discussions which are then consolidated by a final expert. Then, to demonstrate the utility of causal graphs, we use them on multiple downstream applications, and also introduce a new explainable event prediction task that requires a causal chain of events in the explanation. These explanations are more informative and coherent than baseline generations. Finally, our overall approach not finetuned on any downstream task, achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art models on both forecasting and next event prediction tasks.

The Variational Bayesian method (VB) is used to solve the probability distributions of latent variables with the minimum free energy criterion. This criterion is not easy to understand, and the computation is complex. For these reasons, this paper proposes the Semantic Variational Bayes' method (SVB). The Semantic Information Theory the author previously proposed extends the rate-distortion function R(D) to the rate-fidelity function R(G), where R is the minimum mutual information for given semantic mutual information G. SVB came from the parameter solution of R(G), where the variational and iterative methods originated from Shannon et al.'s research on the rate-distortion function. The constraint functions SVB uses include likelihood, truth, membership, similarity, and distortion functions. SVB uses the maximum information efficiency (G/R) criterion, including the maximum semantic information criterion for optimizing model parameters and the minimum mutual information criterion for optimizing the Shannon channel. For the same tasks, SVB is computationally simpler than VB. The computational experiments in the paper include 1) using a mixture model as an example to show that the mixture model converges as G/R increases; 2) demonstrating the application of SVB in data compression with a group of error ranges as the constraint; 3) illustrating how the semantic information measure and SVB can be used for maximum entropy control and reinforcement learning in control tasks with given range constraints, providing numerical evidence for balancing control's purposiveness and efficiency. Further research is needed to apply SVB to neural networks and deep learning.

For some companies attending London Tech Week this Monday, just being there is an achievement. The sudden failure in March of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a financial cornerstone for the UK and US tech industries, had left many British companies wondering how they were going to see out that month. Ashley Ramrachia, chief executive of Academy, a tech company with headquarters in Manchester, said the first he knew of SVB's troubles was on Wednesday 8 March. By Thursday, Ramrachia and others were trying, unsuccessfully, to withdraw funds. By Friday, the Bank of England said it planned to put SVB's UK operation into insolvency and Ramrachia was one of 3,500 customers in Britain scrambling to deal with the consequences.

If the technological innovation coming out of Silicon Valley is as important as venture capitalists insist, the past few days suggest they haven't been very responsible stewards of it. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank late last week may have resulted from a perfect storm of ugly events. But it was also emblematic of a startup ecosystem and venture-capital apparatus that are too unstable, too risky, and too unmoored from reality to be left in charge of something as important as the direction of our technological development. As the startups that make up Silicon Valley Bank's customer base scrambled to figure out whether they would be able to make payroll, a group of extremely online venture capitalists spent four days emoting on Twitter, ginning up confusion and hysteria about the threat of a systemic risk if depositors didn't get all their money back, pronto. All weekend, they screamed that there would be an economic collapse, that they were concerned about the workers, that the Federal Reserve was responsible, that-that-that … until finally, on Sunday evening, they got what they wanted: the government promising full account access to all Silicon Valley Bank depositors. By now, it is relatively clear what happened at Silicon Valley Bank.

We consider how to effectively use prior knowledge when learning a Bayesian model from streaming environments where the data come infinitely and sequentially. This problem is highly important in the era of data explosion and rich sources of precious external knowledge such as pre-trained models, ontologies, Wikipedia, etc. We show that some existing approaches can forget any knowledge very fast. We then propose a novel framework that enables to incorporate the prior knowledge of different forms into a base Bayesian model for data streams. Our framework subsumes some existing popular models for time-series/dynamic data. Extensive experiments show that our framework outperforms existing methods with a large margin. In particular, our framework can help Bayesian models generalize well on extremely short text while other methods overfit. The implementation of our framework is available at https://github.com/bachtranxuan/TPS.git.

Streaming variational Bayes (SVB) is successful in learning LDA models in an online manner. However previous attempts toward developing online Monte-Carlo methods for LDA have little success, often by having much worse perplexity than their batch counterparts. We present a streaming Gibbs sampling (SGS) method, an online extension of the collapsed Gibbs sampling (CGS). Our empirical study shows that SGS can reach similar perplexity as CGS, much better than SVB. Our distributed version of SGS, DSGS, is much more scalable than SVB mainly because the updates' communication complexity is small.

Variational Bayesian inference and (collapsed) Gibbs sampling are the two important classes of inference algorithms for Bayesian networks. Both have their advantages and disadvantages: collapsed Gibbs sampling is unbiased but is also inefficient for large count values and requires averaging over many samples to reduce variance. On the other hand, variational Bayesian inference is efficient and accurate for large count values but suffers from bias for small counts. We propose a hybrid algorithm that combines the best of both worlds: it samples very small counts and applies variational updates to large counts. This hybridization is shown to significantly improve testset perplexity relative to variational inference at no computational cost.