We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

We study the subject of universal online learning with non-i.i.d. processes for bounded losses. The notion of an universally consistent learning was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions, where the objective is to obtain low long-run average loss for any target function. We are interested in characterizing processes for which learning is possible and whether there exist learning rules guaranteed to be universally consistent given the only assumption that such learning is possible. The case of unbounded losses is very restrictive, since the learnable processes almost surely visit a finite number of points and as a result, simple memorization is optimistically universal. We focus on the bounded setting and give a complete characterization of the processes admitting strong and weak universal learning. We further show that k-nearest neighbor algorithm (kNN) is not optimistically universal and present a novel variant of 1NN which is optimistically universal for general input and value spaces in both strong and weak setting. This closes all COLT 2021 open problems posed by Hanneke on universal online learning.

We study universal consistency of non-i.i.d. processes in the context of online learning. A stochastic process is said to admit universal consistency if there exists a learner that achieves vanishing average loss for any measurable response function on this process. When the loss function is unbounded, Blanchard et al. showed that the only processes admitting strong universal consistency are those taking a finite number of values almost surely. However, when the loss function is bounded, the class of processes admitting strong universal consistency is much richer and its characterization could be dependent on the response setting (Hanneke). In this paper, we show that this class of processes is independent from the response setting thereby closing an open question (Hanneke, Open Problem 3). Specifically, we show that the class of processes that admit universal online learning is the same for binary classification as for multiclass classification with countable number of classes. Consequently, any output setting with bounded loss can be reduced to binary classification. Our reduction is constructive and practical. Indeed, we show that the nearest neighbor algorithm is transported by our construction. For binary classification on a process admitting strong universal learning, we prove that nearest neighbor successfully learns at least all finite unions of intervals.

While the standard approach to statistical learning theory is based on assumptions chosen largely for their convenience (e.g., i.i.d. or stationary ergodic), in this work we are interested in developing a theory of learning based only on the most fundamental and natural assumptions implicit in the requirements of the learning problem itself. We specifically study universally consistent function learning, where the objective is to obtain low long-run average loss for any target function, when the data follow a given stochastic process. We are then interested in the question of whether there exist learning rules guaranteed to be universally consistent given only the assumption that universally consistent learning is possible for the given data process. The reasoning that motivates this criterion emanates from a kind of optimist's decision theory, and so we refer to such learning rules as being optimistically universal. We study this question in three natural learning settings: inductive, self-adaptive, and online. Remarkably, as our strongest positive result, we find that optimistically universal learning rules do indeed exist in the self-adaptive learning setting. Establishing this fact requires us to develop new approaches to the design of learning algorithms. Along the way, we also identify concise characterizations of the family of processes under which universally consistent learning is possible in the inductive and self-adaptive settings. We additionally pose a number of enticing open problems, particularly for the online learning setting.