sundial
CarbonX: An Open-Source Tool for Computational Decarbonization Using Time Series Foundation Models
Maji, Diptyaroop, Yang, Kang, Shenoy, Prashant, Sitaraman, Ramesh K, Srivastava, Mani
Computational decarbonization aims to reduce carbon emissions in computing and societal systems such as data centers, transportation, and built environments. This requires accurate, fine-grained carbon intensity forecasts, yet existing tools have several key limitations: (i) they require grid-specific electricity mix data, restricting use where such information is unavailable; (ii) they depend on separate grid-specific models that make it challenging to provide global coverage; and (iii) they provide forecasts without uncertainty estimates, limiting reliability for downstream carbon-aware applications. In this paper, we present CarbonX, an open-source tool that leverages Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) for a range of decarbonization tasks. CarbonX utilizes the versatility of TSFMs to provide strong performance across multiple tasks, such as carbon intensity forecasting and imputation, and across diverse grids. Using only historical carbon intensity data and a single general model, our tool achieves a zero-shot forecasting Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 15.82% across 214 grids worldwide. Across 13 benchmark grids, CarbonX performance is comparable with the current state-of-the-art, with an average MAPE of 9.59% and tail forecasting MAPE of 16.54%, while also providing prediction intervals with 95% coverage. CarbonX can provide forecasts for up to 21 days with minimal accuracy degradation. Further, when fully fine-tuned, CarbonX outperforms the statistical baselines by 1.2--3.9X on the imputation task. Overall, these results demonstrate that CarbonX can be used easily on any grid with limited data and still deliver strong performance, making it a practical tool for global-scale decarbonization.
Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Models
Liu, Yong, Qin, Guo, Shi, Zhiyuan, Chen, Zhi, Yang, Caiyin, Huang, Xiangdong, Wang, Jianmin, Long, Mingsheng
We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.
Molecule-dynamic-based Aging Clock and Aging Roadmap Forecast with Sundial
Wu, Wei, Deng, Zizhen, Zhang, Chi, Liao, Can, Wang, Jinzhuo
Addressing the unavoidable bias inherent in supervised aging clocks, we introduce Sundial, a novel framework that models molecular dynamics through a diffusion field, capturing both the population-level aging process and the individual-level relative aging order. Sundial enables unbiasedestimation of biological age and the forecast of aging roadmap. Fasteraging individuals from Sundial exhibit a higher disease risk compared to those identified from supervised aging clocks. This framework opens new avenues for exploring key topics, including age- and sex-specific aging dynamics and faster yet healthy aging paths.
Reformulating Vision-Language Foundation Models and Datasets Towards Universal Multimodal Assistants
Yu, Tianyu, Hu, Jinyi, Yao, Yuan, Zhang, Haoye, Zhao, Yue, Wang, Chongyi, Wang, Shan, Pan, Yinxv, Xue, Jiao, Li, Dahai, Liu, Zhiyuan, Zheng, Hai-Tao, Sun, Maosong
Recent Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) exhibit impressive abilities to perceive images and follow open-ended instructions. The capabilities of MLLMs depend on two crucial factors: the model architecture to facilitate the feature alignment of visual modules and large language models; the multimodal instruction tuning datasets for human instruction following. (i) For the model architecture, most existing models introduce an external bridge module to connect vision encoders with language models, which needs an additional feature-alignment pre-training. In this work, we discover that compact pre-trained vision language models can inherently serve as ``out-of-the-box'' bridges between vision and language. Based on this, we propose Muffin framework, which directly employs pre-trained vision-language models to act as providers of visual signals. (ii) For the multimodal instruction tuning datasets, existing methods omit the complementary relationship between different datasets and simply mix datasets from different tasks. Instead, we propose UniMM-Chat dataset which explores the complementarities of datasets to generate 1.1M high-quality and diverse multimodal instructions. We merge information describing the same image from diverse datasets and transforms it into more knowledge-intensive conversation data. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the Muffin framework and UniMM-Chat dataset. Muffin achieves state-of-the-art performance on a wide range of vision-language tasks, significantly surpassing state-of-the-art models like LLaVA and InstructBLIP. Our model and dataset are all accessible at https://github.com/thunlp/muffin.