Many decision-facing stochastic systems are observed through aggregate distributions rather than scalar trajectories: queue occupancies, mobility shares, publichealth mixtures, generation-source shares, ecological compositions, and air-quality severity profiles all live on the probability simplex and evolve over time. We study causal (time-respecting online) forecasting for these distribution-valued time series and argue that the transition operator itself should be structured around the simplex. We introduce CAST (Causal Anchored Simplex Transport), a successor-local operator that (i) retrieves empirical successors from causal context, (ii) stabilizes them with a persistence anchor, and (iii) applies a bounded local stochastic transport on ordered supports; every stage preserves the simplex by construction. We identify a structural failure mode, latent transition-kernel aliasing, where similar observed distributions evolve differently under different contextual regimes, and prove that any forecaster depending only on an aliased summary incurs an irreducible weighted Jensen-Shannon excess-risk lower bound, while the CAST hypothesis class contains the regime-aware Bayes successor; for ordered supports an additional Pinsker separation holds whenever the transported successor lies outside the no-transport anchor hull. On a suite of eleven public and simulated benchmarks spanning ecology, energy, diet, mortality, employment, air quality, severe weather, mobility, and G/G/1, Gt/G/1 queue occupancy, CAST achieves the best average rank on both one-step KL (1.27) and autoregressive rollout JSD (1.91), winning 8/11 sections on each metric against a broad statistical, compositional, recurrent, convolutional, Transformer, and modern time-series baseline set, and top-2 on all 11 sections for offline KL. Component ablations and a controlled synthetic aliasing experiment corroborate the theory. The code release is available at this link.

While most heuristics studied in heuristic search depend only on the state, some accumulate information during search and thus also depend on the search history. Various existing approaches use such dynamic heuristics in $\mathrm{A}^*$-like algorithms and appeal to classic results for $\mathrm{A}^*$ to show optimality. However, doing so ignores the complexities of searching with a mutable heuristic. In this paper we formalize the idea of dynamic heuristics and use them in a generic algorithm framework. We study a particular instantiation that models $\mathrm{A}^*$ with dynamic heuristics and show general optimality results. Finally we show how existing approaches from classical planning can be viewed as special cases of this instantiation, making it possible to directly apply our optimality results.

Greedy search methods like Greedy Best-First Search (GBFS) and Enforced Hill-Climbing (EHC) often struggle when faced with Uninformed Heuristic Regions (UHRs) like heuristic local minima or plateaus. In this work, we theoretically and empirically compare two popular methods for escaping UHRs in breadth-first search (BrFS) and restarting random walks (RRWs). We first derive the expected runtime of escaping a UHR using BrFS and RRWs, based on properties of the UHR and the random walk procedure, and then use these results to identify when RRWs will be faster in expectation than BrFS. We then evaluate these methods for escaping UHRs by comparing standard EHC, which uses BrFS to escape UHRs, to variants of EHC called EHC-RRW, which use RRWs for that purpose. EHC-RRW is shown to have strong expected runtime guarantees in cases where EHC has previously been shown to be effective. We also run experiments with these approaches on PDDL planning benchmarks to better understand their relative effectiveness for escaping UHRs.

In these lecture notes, we first recall the connection between graph neural networks, Weisfeiler-Lehman tests and logics such as first-order logic and graded modal logic. We then present a modal logic in which counting modalities appear in linear inequalities in order to solve verification tasks on graph neural networks. We describe an algorithm for the satisfiability problem of that logic. It is inspired from the tableau method of vanilla modal logic, extended with reasoning in quantifier-free fragment Boolean algebra with Presburger arithmetic.

Constraint Programming (CP) offers an intuitive, declarative framework for modeling V ehicle Routing Problems (VRP), yet classical CP models based on successor variables cannot always deal with optional visits or insertion based heuristics. T o address these limitations, this paper formalizes sequence variables within CP . Unlike the classical successor models, this computational domain handle optional visits and support insertion heuristics, including insertion-based Large Neighborhood Search. We provide a clear definition of their domain, update operations, and introduce consistency levels for constraints on this domain. An implementation is described with the underlying data structures required for integrating sequence variables into existing trail-based CP solvers. Furthermore, global constraints specifically designed for sequence variables and vehicle routing are introduced. Finally, the effectiveness of sequence variables is demonstrated by simplifying problem modeling and achieving competitive computational performance on the Dial-a-Ride Problem.