Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) aims to predict future trends based on historical data. While longer lookback windows theoretically offer more comprehensive insights, Transformer-based models often struggle with them. On one hand, longer windows introduce more noise and redundancy, hindering the model's learning process. On the other hand, Transformers suffer from attention dispersion and are prone to overfitting to noise, especially when processing long sequences. In this paper, we introduce the Maximum Effective Window (MEW) metric to assess a model's ability to effectively utilize the lookback window.

Reasoning capability is pivotal for Large Language Models (LLMs) to solve complex tasks, yet achieving reliable and scalable reasoning remains challenging. While Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has become a mainstream approach, existing methods often suffer from uncontrolled generation, insufficient quality, and limited diversity in reasoning paths. Recent efforts leverage code to enhance CoT by grounding reasoning in executable steps, but such methods are typically constrained to predefined mathematical problems, hindering scalability and generalizability. In this work, we propose Caco(Code-Assisted Chain-of-ThOught), a novel framework that automates the synthesis of high-quality, verifiable, and diverse instruction-CoT reasoning data through code-driven augmentation.

Large language models (LLMs) frequently generate hallucinations--content that deviates from factual accuracy or provided context--posing challenges for diagnosis due to the complex interplay of underlying causes. This paper introduces a subsequence association framework to systematically trace and understand hallucinations. Our key insight is that hallucinations arise when dominant hallucinatory associations outweigh faithful ones. Through theoretical and empirical analyses, we demonstrate that decoder-only transformers effectively function as subsequence embedding models, with linear layers encoding input-output associations. We propose a tracing algorithm that identifies causal subsequences by analyzing hallucination probabilities across randomized input contexts. Experiments show our method outperforms standard attribution techniques in identifying hallucination causes and aligns with evidence from the model's training corpus. This work provides a unified perspective on hallucinations and a robust framework for their tracing and analysis.

Explaining time series classification models is crucial, particularly in high-stakes applications such as healthcare and finance, where transparency and trust play a critical role. Although numerous time series classification methods have identified key subsequences, known as shapelets, as core features for achieving stateof-the-art performance and validating their pivotal role in classification outcomes, existing post-hoc time series explanation (PHTSE) methods primarily focus on timestep-level feature attribution. These explanation methods overlook the fundamental prior that classification outcomes are predominantly driven by key shapelets.

Selective prediction [Dru13, QV19] models the scenario where a forecaster freely decides on the prediction window that their forecast spans. Many data statistics can be predicted to a non-trivial error rate without any distributional assumptions or expert advice, yet these results rely on that the forecaster may predict at any time. We introduce a model of Prediction with Limited Selectivity (PLS) where the forecaster can start the prediction only on a subset of the time horizon. We study the optimal prediction error both on an instance-by-instance basis and via an average-case analysis. We introduce a complexity measure that gives instancedependent bounds on the optimal error. For a randomly-generated PLS instance, these bounds match with high probability.

Large language models (LLMs) frequently generate hallucinations--content that deviates from factually inaccurate or deviates from provided context--posing challenges for diagnosis. However, diagnosing the causes of hallucination is challenging due to the complex interplay of underlying causes. This paper introduces a framework to systematically understand the sources of hallucination behavior in large language models. Our key insight is that hallucinations arise when more frequent but non-factual associations outweigh faithful ones. Through theoretical and empirical analyses, we demonstrate that decoder-only transformers effectively function as subsequence embedding models, with the fully-connected layers encoding input-output associations. We propose a tracing algorithm that identifies causal subsequences by analyzing hallucination probabilities across randomized input contexts. Experiments show our method outperforms standard attribution techniques in identifying hallucination causes and is supported by evidence from the model's training corpus. This work provides a unified perspective on hallucinations and a robust framework for their cause and analysis.

Explaining time series classification models is crucial, particularly in high-stakes applications such as healthcare and finance, where transparency and trust play a critical role. Although numerous time series classification methods have identified key subsequences, known as shapelets, as core features for achieving state-of-the-art performance and validating their pivotal role in classification outcomes, existing post-hoc time series explanation (PHTSE) methods primarily focus on timestep-level feature attribution. These explanation methods overlook the fundamental prior that classification outcomes are predominantly driven by key shapelets. To bridge this gap, we present ShapeX, an innovative framework that segments time series into meaningful shapelet-driven segments and employs Shapley values to assess their saliency. At the core of ShapeX lies the Shapelet Describe-and-Detect (SDD) framework, which effectively learns a diverse set of shapelets essential for classification. We further demonstrate that ShapeX produces explanations which reveal causal relationships instead of just correlations, owing to the atomicity properties of shapelets. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that ShapeX outperforms existing methods in identifying the most relevant subsequences, enhancing both the precision and causal fidelity of time series explanations.

This paper studies the identifiability and stability of drifting fields within the framework of Generative Modeling via Drifting. The motivating question is whether a zero-drift equilibrium identifies the target distribution, and whether an approximate zero drift implies weak distributional convergence. Since the original drifting model employs the Laplace kernel by default, we first analyze why standard Gaussian score-based arguments fail to apply. This analysis motivates the introduction of companion-elliptic kernel families, which are characterized by a companion potential satisfying an elliptic closure relation. We show that this class naturally contains the Laplace kernel and consists precisely of Gaussian and Matérn kernels with smoothness parameter $ν\ge 1/2$. Within this class, we establish field identifiability for arbitrary Borel probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$: if the drifting field vanishes identically, then the two measures must coincide. As for stability, we demonstrate that field convergence alone does not guarantee weak convergence, since mass may escape to infinity while remaining invisible to the field. Although tightness of the sequence directly removes this obstruction and restores weak stability, we prove that, even without tightness, every $C_0$-vague cluster point lies exactly on the defect ray $\{cp:0\le c\le1\}$. Consequently, a single scalar $C_0$-observable suffices to detect the missing mass and recover weak convergence.

While it has been the subject of several recent theoretical studies, many important questions related to adversarial robustness are still open.