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Use of Continuous Glucose Monitoring with Machine Learning to Identify Metabolic Subphenotypes and Inform Precision Lifestyle Changes

Metwally, Ahmed A., Park, Heyjun, Wu, Yue, McLaughlin, Tracey, Snyder, Michael P.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The classification of diabetes and prediabetes by static glucose thresholds obscures the pathophysiological dysglycemia heterogeneity, primarily driven by insulin resistance (IR), beta-cell dysfunction, and incretin deficiency. This review demonstrates that continuous glucose monitoring and wearable technologies enable a paradigm shift towards non-invasive, dynamic metabolic phenotyping. We show evidence that machine learning models can leverage high-resolution glucose data from at-home, CGM-enabled oral glucose tolerance tests to accurately predict gold-standard measures of muscle IR and beta-cell function. This personalized characterization extends to real-world nutrition, where an individual's unique postprandial glycemic response (PPGR) to standardized meals, such as the relative glucose spike to potatoes versus grapes, could serve as a biomarker for their metabolic subtype. Moreover, integrating wearable data reveals that habitual diet, sleep, and physical activity patterns, particularly their timing, are uniquely associated with specific metabolic dysfunctions, informing precision lifestyle interventions. The efficacy of dietary mitigators in attenuating PPGR is also shown to be phenotype-dependent. Collectively, this evidence demonstrates that CGM can deconstruct the complexity of early dysglycemia into distinct, actionable subphenotypes. This approach moves beyond simple glycemic control, paving the way for targeted nutritional, behavioral, and pharmacological strategies tailored to an individual's core metabolic defects, thereby paving the way for a new era of precision diabetes prevention.


MixEHR-Nest: Identifying Subphenotypes within Electronic Health Records through Hierarchical Guided-Topic Modeling

Wang, Ruohan, Wang, Zilong, Song, Ziyang, Buckeridge, David, Li, Yue

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automatic subphenotyping from electronic health records (EHRs)provides numerous opportunities to understand diseases with unique subgroups and enhance personalized medicine for patients. However, existing machine learning algorithms either focus on specific diseases for better interpretability or produce coarse-grained phenotype topics without considering nuanced disease patterns. In this study, we propose a guided topic model, MixEHR-Nest, to infer sub-phenotype topics from thousands of disease using multi-modal EHR data. Specifically, MixEHR-Nest detects multiple subtopics from each phenotype topic, whose prior is guided by the expert-curated phenotype concepts such as Phenotype Codes (PheCodes) or Clinical Classification Software (CCS) codes. We evaluated MixEHR-Nest on two EHR datasets: (1) the MIMIC-III dataset consisting of over 38 thousand patients from intensive care unit (ICU) from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) in Boston, USA; (2) the healthcare administrative database PopHR, comprising 1.3 million patients from Montreal, Canada. Experimental results demonstrate that MixEHR-Nest can identify subphenotypes with distinct patterns within each phenotype, which are predictive for disease progression and severity. Consequently, MixEHR-Nest distinguishes between type 1 and type 2 diabetes by inferring subphenotypes using CCS codes, which do not differentiate these two subtype concepts. Additionally, MixEHR-Nest not only improved the prediction accuracy of short-term mortality of ICU patients and initial insulin treatment in diabetic patients but also revealed the contributions of subphenotypes. For longitudinal analysis, MixEHR-Nest identified subphenotypes of distinct age prevalence under the same phenotypes, such as asthma, leukemia, epilepsy, and depression. The MixEHR-Nest software is available at GitHub: https://github.com/li-lab-mcgill/MixEHR-Nest.


Data-driven identification of post-acute SARS-CoV-2 infection subphenotypes

#artificialintelligence

The post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) refers to a broad spectrum of symptoms and signs that are persistent, exacerbated or newly incident in the period after acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. Most studies have examined these conditions individually without providing evidence on co-occurring conditions. In this study, we leveraged the electronic health record data of two large cohorts, INSIGHT and OneFlorida+, from the national Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network. We created a development cohort from INSIGHT and a validation cohort from OneFlorida+ including 20,881 and 13,724 patients, respectively, who were SARS-CoV-2 infected, and we investigated their newly incident diagnoses 30–180 days after a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. Through machine learning analysis of over 137 symptoms and conditions, we identified four reproducible PASC subphenotypes, dominated by cardiac and renal (including 33.75% and 25.43% of the patients in the development and validation cohorts); respiratory, sleep and anxiety (32.75% and 38.48%); musculoskeletal and nervous system (23.37% and 23.35%); and digestive and respiratory system (10.14% and 12.74%) sequelae. These subphenotypes were associated with distinct patient demographics, underlying conditions before SARS-CoV-2 infection and acute infection phase severity. Our study provides insights into the heterogeneity of PASC and may inform stratified decision-making in the management of PASC conditions. Machine learning applied to electronic health records in two US cohorts from the RECOVER initiative identified four Long-COVID subphenotypes that differ in the involvement of organ systems, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection severity and underlying conditions.


Detecting time-evolving phenotypic topics via tensor factorization on electronic health records: Cardiovascular disease case study

#artificialintelligence

Present a method using Tensor Factorization to find subphenotypes from longitudinal EHR. We applied this approach to 12,380 patients' 10-year PheCodes prior to CVD. We identified 14 subphenotypes and showed the progress pattern. Topics Vitamin D deficiency, Urinary infections cannot be explained by traditional risk factors. Discovering subphenotypes of complex diseases can help characterize disease cohorts for investigative studies aimed at developing better diagnoses and treatments.


Identification of Pediatric Sepsis Subphenotypes for Enhanced Machine Learning Predictive Performance: A Latent Profile Analysis

Velez, Tom, Wang, Tony, Koutroulis, Ioannis, Chamberlain, James, Uppal, Amit, Yohannes, Seife, Tschampel, Tim, Apostolova, Emilia

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Background: While machine learning (ML) models are rapidly emerging as promising screening tools in critical care medicine, the identification of homogeneous subphenotypes within populations with heterogeneous conditions such as pediatric sepsis may facilitate attainment of high-predictive performance of these prognostic algorithms. This study is aimed to identify subphenotypes of pediatric sepsis and demonstrate the potential value of partitioned data/subtyping-based training. Methods: This was a retrospective study of clinical data extracted from medical records of 6,446 pediatric patients that were admitted at a major hospital system in the DC area. Vitals and labs associated with patients meeting the diagnostic criteria for sepsis were used to perform latent profile analysis. Modern ML algorithms were used to explore the predictive performance benefits of reduced training data heterogeneity via label profiling. Results: In total 134 (2.1%) patients met the diagnostic criteria for sepsis in this cohort and latent profile analysis identified four profiles/subphenotypes of pediatric sepsis. Profiles 1 and 3 had the lowest mortality and included pediatric patients from different age groups. Profile 2 were characterized by respiratory dysfunction; profile 4 by neurological dysfunction and highest mortality rate (22.2%). Machine learning experiments comparing the predictive performance of models derived without training data profiling against profile targeted models suggest statistically significant improved performance of prediction can be obtained. For example, area under ROC curve (AUC) obtained to predict profile 4 with 24-hour data (AUC = .998, p < .0001) compared favorably with the AUC obtained from the model considering all profiles as a single homogeneous group (AUC = .918) with 24-hour data.