Stochastic simulation is widely used to study complex systems composed of various interconnected subprocesses, such as input processes, routing and control logic, optimization routines, and data-driven decision modules. In practice, these subprocesses may be inherently unknown or too computationally intensive to directly embed in the simulation model. Replacing these elements with estimated or learned approximations introduces a form of epistemic uncertainty that we refer to as submodel uncertainty. This paper investigates how submodel uncertainty affects the estimation of system performance metrics. We develop a framework for quantifying submodel uncertainty in stochastic simulation models and extend the framework to digital-twin settings, where simulation experiments are repeatedly conducted with the model initialized from observed system states. Building on approaches from input uncertainty analysis, we leverage bootstrapping and Bayesian model averaging to construct quantile-based confidence or credible intervals for key performance indicators. We propose a tree-based method that decomposes total output variability and attributes uncertainty to individual submodels in the form of importance scores. The proposed framework is model-agnostic and accommodates both parametric and nonparametric submodels under frequentist and Bayesian modeling paradigms. A synthetic numerical experiment and a more realistic digital-twin simulation of a contact center illustrate the importance of understanding how and how much individual submodels contribute to overall uncertainty.

Feed Forward Network (FFN) block structure within a standard Transformer model.

For samples where some annotators disagree, a comparative strategy is proposed to filter noise.

Each sublayer adds a skip-connection (ADD) and batch normalization (BN). The decoder sequentially chooses a node according to a probability distribution produced by the node embeddings to construct a solution. The scaled symmetric sampling method is shown in Algorithm 2. The scaled factor The uniform division of the weight space is illustrated as follows. Thus, its approximate Pareto optimal solutions are commonly pursued. V ehicles must serve all the customers and finally return to the depot.

Recently, neural heuristics based on deep reinforcement learning have exhibited promise in solving multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems (MO-COPs).

If the required memory to train a model exceeds this limit, the device will be excluded from the training.

Often, however, the causal relationship may be entirely absent or account only for a part of the initially observed correlation.

A.1 Experiment 1 A.1.1 Participants Experiment 1 recruited 21 participants (11 females, aged 18-25). All participants had provided informed consent before the experiment. Cover story Participants were told that they were apprentice magicians in a magical world. In this world, dangerous magic lava rocks were emitted from an unknown number of invisible volcano(es). On each trial, they observed past landing locations of lava rocks in a specific area (on the screen), and their job was to predict the probability density of future landing locations. More specifically, they were asked to draw a probability density by reporting, using click-and-drag mouse gestures, three key properties of the volcano(es), corresponding to the mean, the weight, and the standard deviation of a Gaussian component. They were told that their bonus payment depended on the accuracy of the reported predictive density.