The growing philosophical literature on algorithmic fairness has examined statistical criteria such as equalized odds and calibration, causal and counterfactual approaches, and the role of structural and compounding injustices. Yet an important dimension has been overlooked: whether the evidential value of an algorithmic output itself depends on structural injustice. We contrast a predictive policing algorithm, which relies on historical crime data, with a camera-based system that records ongoing offenses, where both are designed to guide police deployment. In evaluating the moral acceptability of acting on a piece of evidence, we must ask not only whether the evidence is probative in the actual world, but also whether it would remain probative in nearby worlds without the relevant injustices. The predictive policing algorithm fails this test, but the camera-based system passes it. When evidence fails the test, it is morally problematic to use it punitively, more so than evidence that passes the test.

Educational technologies, and the systems of schooling in which they are deployed, enact particular ideologies about what is important to know and how learners should learn. As artificial intelligence technologies -- in education and beyond -- have led to inequitable outcomes for marginalized communities, various approaches have been developed to evaluate and mitigate AI systems' disparate impact. However, we argue in this paper that the dominant paradigm of evaluating fairness on the basis of performance disparities in AI models is inadequate for confronting the structural inequities that educational AI systems (re)produce. We draw on a lens of structural injustice informed by critical theory and Black feminist scholarship to critically interrogate several widely-studied and widely-adopted categories of educational AI systems and demonstrate how educational AI technologies are bound up in and reproduce historical legacies of structural injustice and inequity, regardless of the parity of their models' performance. We close with alternative visions for a more equitable future for educational AI research.