In recent years, the Prairies have seen bigger swings in climate conditions -- very wet years followed by very dry ones. That makes an already unpredictable landscape even harder to forecast, with real consequences for flood preparedness and water quality. The challenge is the landscape itself. Much of the Canadian Prairies sit within the Prairie Pothole Region, a landscape dotted with millions of shallow wetlands and depressions. Water doesn't simply run downhill into a stream, it is stored first.

Prior multi-frame optical flow methods typically estimate flow repeatedly in a pair-wise manner, leading to significant computational redundancy. To mitigate this, we implement a Streamlined In-batch Multi-frame (SIM) pipeline, specifically tailored to video inputs to minimize redundant calculations. It enables the simultaneous prediction of successive unidirectional flows in a single forward pass, boosting processing speed by 44.43% and reaching efficiencies on par with two-frame networks. Moreover, we investigate various spatiotemporal modeling methods for optical flow estimation within this pipeline. Notably, we propose a simple yet highly effective parameter-efficient Integrative spatiotemporal Coherence (ISC) modeling method, alongside a lightweight Global Temporal Regressor (GTR) to harness temporal cues. The proposed ISC and GTR bring powerful spatiotemporal modeling capabilities and significantly enhance accuracy, including in occluded areas, while adding modest computations to the SIM pipeline. Compared to the baseline, our approach, StreamFlow, achieves performance enhancements of 15.45% and 11.37% on the Sintel clean and final test sets respectively, with gains of 15.53% and 10.77% on occluded regions and only a 1.11% rise in latency. Furthermore, StreamFlow exhibits state-of-the-art cross-dataset testing results on Sintel and KITTI, demonstrating its robust cross-domain generalization capabilities. The code is available here .

Streamflow forecasting is crucial for water resource management and risk mitigation. While deep learning models have achieved strong predictive performance, they often overlook underlying physical processes, limiting interpretability and generalization. Recent causal learning approaches address these issues by integrating domain knowledge, yet they typically rely on fixed causal graphs that fail to adapt to data. We propose CauStream, a unified framework for causal spatiotemporal streamflow forecasting. CauSTream jointly learns (i) a runoff causal graph among meteorological forcings and (ii) a routing graph capturing dynamic dependencies across stations. We further establish identifiability conditions for these causal structures under a nonparametric setting. We evaluate CauSTream on three major U.S. river basins across three forecasting horizons. The model consistently outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods, with performance gaps widening at longer forecast windows, indicating stronger generalization to unseen conditions. Beyond forecasting, CauSTream also learns causal graphs that capture relationships among hydrological factors and stations. The inferred structures align closely with established domain knowledge, offering interpretable insights into watershed dynamics. CauSTream offers a principled foundation for causal spatiotemporal modeling, with the potential to extend to a wide range of scientific and environmental applications.

Recent advances in time series research facilitate the development of foundation models. While many state-of-the-art time series foundation models have been introduced, few studies examine their effectiveness in specific downstream applications in physical science. This work investigates the role of integrating domain knowledge into time series models for hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling. Using the CAMELS-US dataset, which includes rainfall and runoff data from 671 locations with six time series streams and 30 static features, we compare baseline and foundation models. Results demonstrate that models incorporating comprehensive known exogenous inputs outperform more limited approaches, including foundation models. Notably, incorporating natural annual periodic time series contribute the most significant improvements.

Streamflow prediction is one of the key challenges in the field of hydrology due to the complex interplay between multiple non-linear physical mechanisms behind streamflow generation. While physics based models are rooted in rich understanding of the physical processes, a significant performance gap still remains which can be potentially addressed by leveraging the recent advances in machine learning. The goal of this work is to incorporate our understanding of hydrological processes and constraints into machine learning algorithms to improve the predictive performance. Traditional ML models for this problem predict streamflow using weather drivers as input. However there are multiple intermediate processes that interact to generate streamflow from weather drivers. The key idea of the approach is to explicitly model these intermediate processes that connect weather drivers to streamflow using a multi-task learning framework. While our proposed approach requires data about intermediate processes during training, only weather drivers will be needed to predict the streamflow during testing phase. We assess the efficacy of the approach on a simulation dataset generated by the SWAT model for a catchment located in the South Branch of the Root River Watershed in southeast Minnesota. While the focus of this paper is on improving the performance given data from a single catchment, methodology presented here is applicable to ML-based approaches that use data from multiple catchments to improve performance of each individual catchment.

Conceptual rainfall-runoff models aid hydrologists and climate scientists in modelling streamflow to inform water management practices. Recent advances in deep learning have unravelled the potential for combining hydrological models with deep learning models for better interpretability and improved predictive performance. In our previous work, we introduced DeepGR4J, which enhanced the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model using a deep learning model to serve as a surrogate for the routing component. DeepGR4J had an improved rainfall-runoff prediction accuracy, particularly in arid catchments. Quantile regression models have been extensively used for quantifying uncertainty while aiding extreme value forecasting. In this paper, we extend DeepGR4J using a quantile regression-based ensemble learning framework to quantify uncertainty in streamflow prediction. We also leverage the uncertainty bounds to identify extreme flow events potentially leading to flooding. We further extend the model to multi-step streamflow predictions for uncertainty bounds. We design experiments for a detailed evaluation of the proposed framework using the CAMELS-Aus dataset. The results show that our proposed Quantile DeepGR4J framework improves the predictive accuracy and uncertainty interval quality (interval score) compared to baseline deep learning models. Furthermore, we carry out flood risk evaluation using Quantile DeepGR4J, and the results demonstrate its suitability as an early warning system.

Prior multi-frame optical flow methods typically estimate flow repeatedly in a pair-wise manner, leading to significant computational redundancy. To mitigate this, we implement a Streamlined In-batch Multi-frame (SIM) pipeline, specifically tailored to video inputs to minimize redundant calculations. It enables the simultaneous prediction of successive unidirectional flows in a single forward pass, boosting processing speed by 44.43% and reaching efficiencies on par with two-frame networks. Moreover, we investigate various spatiotemporal modeling methods for optical flow estimation within this pipeline. Notably, we propose a simple yet highly effective parameter-efficient Integrative spatiotemporal Coherence (ISC) modeling method, alongside a lightweight Global Temporal Regressor (GTR) to harness temporal cues.

Traditional equation-driven hydrological models often struggle to accurately predict streamflow in challenging regional Earth systems like the Tibetan Plateau, while hybrid and existing algorithm-driven models face difficulties in interpreting hydrological behaviors. This work introduces HydroTrace, an algorithm-driven, data-agnostic model that substantially outperforms these approaches, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 98% and demonstrating strong generalization on unseen data. Moreover, HydroTrace leverages advanced attention mechanisms to capture spatial-temporal variations and feature-specific impacts, enabling the quantification and spatial resolution of streamflow partitioning as well as the interpretation of hydrological behaviors such as glacier-snow-streamflow interactions and monsoon dynamics. Additionally, a large language model (LLM)-based application allows users to easily understand and apply HydroTrace's insights for practical purposes. These advancements position HydroTrace as a transformative tool in hydrological and broader Earth system modeling, offering enhanced prediction accuracy and interpretability.