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Smart decision making at the tactical level is important for Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents to perform well in the domain of real-time strategy (RTS) games. This paper presents a Bayesian model that can be used to predict the outcomes of isolated battles, as well as predict what units are needed to defeat a given army. Model parameters are learned from simulated battles, in order to minimize the dependency on player skill. We apply our model to the game of StarCraft, with the end-goal of using the predictor as a module for making high-level combat decisions, and show that the model is capable of making accurate predictions.

Real-Time Strategy (RTS) video games have proven to be a very challenging application area for artificial intelligence research. Existing AI solutionsare limited by vast state and action spaces and real-time constraints. Most implementations efficiently tackle various tactical or strategic sub-problems, but there is no single algorithm fast enough to be successfully applied to big problem sets (such as a complete instance of the StarCraft RTS game). This paper presents a hierarchical adversarial search framework which more closely models the human way of thinking --- much like the chain of command employed by the military. Each level implements a different abstraction --- from deciding how to win the game at the top of the hierarchy to individual unit orders at the bottom. We apply a 3-layer version of our model to SparCraft ---a StarCraft combat simulator --- and show that it outperforms state of the art algorithms such as Alpha-Beta, UCT, and Portfolio Search in large combat scenarios featuring multiple bases and up to 72 mobile units per player under real-time constraints of 40 ms per search episode.

Smart decision making at the tactical level is important for Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents to perform well in the domain of real-time strategy (RTS) games. Winning battles is crucial in RTS games, and while humans can decide when and how to attack based on their experience, it is challenging for AI agents to estimate combat outcomes accurately. A few existing models address this problem in the game of StarCraft but present many restrictions, such as not modeling injured units, supporting only a small number of unit types, or being able to predict the winner of a fight but not the remaining army. Prediction using simulations is a popular method, but generally slow and requires extensive coding to model the game engine accurately. This paper introduces a model based on Lanchester's attrition laws which addresses the mentioned limitations while being faster than running simulations. Unit strength values are learned using maximum likelihood estimation from past recorded battles. We present experiments that use a StarCraft simulator for generating battles for both training and testing, and show that the model is capable of making accurate predictions. Furthermore, we implemented our method in a StarCraft bot that uses either this or traditional simulations to decide when to attack or to retreat. We present tournament results (against top bots from 2014 AIIDE competition) comparing the performances of the two versions, and show increased winning percentages for our method.

Real-Time Strategy (RTS) games have shown to be very resilient to standard  adversarial tree search techniques. Recently, a few approaches to tackle their complexity have emerged that use game state or move abstractions, or both. Unfortunately, the supporting experiments were either limited to simpler RTS environments ( u RTS, SparCraft) or lack testing against state-of-the-art game playing agents. Here, we propose Puppet Search , a new adversarial search framework based on scripts that can expose choice points to a look-ahead search procedure. Selecting a combination of a script and decisions for its choice points represents a move to be applied next. Such moves can be executed in the actual game, thus letting the script play, or in an abstract representation of the game state which can be used by an adversarial tree search algorithm. Puppet Search returns a principal variation of scripts and choices to be executed by the agent for a given time span. We implemented the algorithm in a complete StarCraft bot. Experiments show that it matches or outperforms all of the individual scripts that it uses when playing against state-of-the-art bots from the 2014 AIIDE StarCraft competition.