Conformal prediction methods enjoy strong theoretical and empirical predictive inference performance, provided the data is exchangeable, and predictors are trained in a memoryless fashion. However, these assumptions and constraints are impractical in many real-data settings, such as time series (where temporal dependence violates exchangeability, and where memoryless predictors will inevitably have poor predictive accuracy). Recent work shows that the split conformal prediction method is robust to these issues of memory-based predictors and deviations from exchangeability that are common features of time-series data. However, since using sample splitting can lead to lower accuracy, this motivates asking whether other predictive inference methods (that do not rely on data splitting) could also be reliably used in the time series setting. In this work, we show that the vanilla leave-one-out jackknife can suffer an arbitrary loss of coverage even in canonical time series models with mild temporal dependence. As a remedy, we propose a careful modification tailored to such settings, which we term the \emph{leave-a-window-out} (LWO) method, and show that it can achieve valid coverage provided that the model-fitting procedure satisfies mild stability properties. Our proofs are based on quantifying the degree to which the data departs from \emph{cyclic exchangeability}, and we introduce new coefficients to measure the extent of this departure. Experiments on time series data demonstrate that our LWO method often enjoys valid coverage when the vanilla jackknife fails to cover, while producing much narrower intervals than split conformal prediction.

Efficient benchmarking techniques aim to lower the computational cost of evaluating LLMs by predicting full benchmark scores using only a subset of a benchmark's questions. By reframing this problem as an instance of multiple regression with feature selection, we find that existing efficient benchmarking methods can be greatly improved by simply using kernel ridge regression at the prediction stage. Additionally, using an information-theoretic feature-selection algorithm called minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), we can further improve upon these methods by selecting question subsets that will be maximally useful for prediction. Except in very data-poor settings, these approaches consistently achieve smaller prediction errors (in both MAE and RMSE), and greater ranking correlation between predicted and true scores (in both Spearman $ρ$ and Kendall $τ$) across a range of benchmarks using both binary and continuous metrics. Furthermore, mRMR subsampling is much faster than competitor methods (which often involve fitting probabilistic models or running clustering algorithms), and is more likely to select the same questions under different random seeds or training data splits. Tutorial code can be found at https://github.com/sambowyer/mrmr_eval .

We study sample quantiles of distributions indexed by estimated parameters, with a on Value-at-Risk related to linear projections of financial returns that whose underlying probability law is heavy-tailed. In this setting, the projection direction and the empirical quantile threshold are estimated from the data, so the standard Bahadur representation under a fixed distribution does not separate the distinct sources of instability. A canonical starting point is Bahadur's representation, which expresses the sample quantile through the empirical distribution function plus a remainder term \cite{bahadur1966}. Empirical-process theory provides a usable scaffolding through the mechanics of half-spaces, symmetric differences, and Glivenko--Cantelli uniform convergence. They yield stability bounds, but absorb changes in projection direction and changes in quantile threshold into a single symmetric-difference measure. Interestingly, a global uniform-convergence requirement is imposed on what is intrinsically a local quantile-stability problem. This paper introduces a Q-Q orthogonality formulation for separating projection-direction and quantile-threshold effects. The object of interest is the difference between the empirical quantile computed using the estimated projection direction and the population quantile computed at the reference projection direction. We decompose this difference into three terms, $\hat q_α(\hat w)-q_α(w_0)=D_1+D_2+D_3$. Here, $D_1$ measures the population quantile movement induced by perturbing the projection direction, $D_2$ measures the empirical quantile fluctuation with the projection direction held fixed, and $D_3$ is the Bahadur-type remainder.

We consider the problem of sampling from an unnormalized Boltzmann/ Gibbs density, π(θ) exp V(θ),θ Θ Rd, where the normalization constant is unknown (and/or intractable) and only the potential function V (and typically its derivatives) can be evaluated. This problem arises across various domains in Bayesian inference, statistical physics, and modern machine learning. A common variational perspective on sampling is to characterize the target distribution π as the unique minimizer of a functional (typically a divergence functional) over the space of probability measures. From this viewpoint, sampling can be formulated as evolving an initial distribution ρ0 toward π via the gradient flow of this functional under a suitable geometric structure on the space of probability measures. In this paper, we focus on a gradient flow based sampling methodology built from the spherical Hellinger Kantorovich (SHK), also known as the Wasserstein Fisher Rao (WFR), geometry on the space of probability measures (Kondratyev and Vorotnikov, 2019; Liero et al., 2018; Chizat et al., 2015). When the variational objective is the exclusive KL divergence ρ 7 KL(ρ π), the SHK gradient flow generates a time-indexed family of marginals {ρt}t 0 (initialized at ρ0 P2(Θ)) that evolves according to the continuity reaction equation (4). This evolution is equivalent to the birth-death Langevin dynamics introduced in Lu et al. (2019) .

Gradient-flow analyses show that simplified linear transformers can learn the in-context linear-regression algorithm, but they do not explain the finite-step behavior of gradient descent at large learning rates. Motivated by empirical work on high-learning-rate transformer instabilities and by the cubic-map phase diagram for quadratic regression, we study an exactly reducible one-prompt linear-transformer training problem. After normalization, the dynamics reduce to a two-factor product map with an effective step-size parameter \(μ\). On the balanced slice, this map recovers the known scalar cubic transition from monotone convergence to catapult convergence, periodic and chaotic bounded nonconvergence, and divergence. We then analyze the full two-dimensional system and show that, for \(0<μ<2\), it has an explicit invariant Chebyshev ellipse separating forward-invariant regions; this ellipse carries off-balanced chaotic dynamics but is transversely repelling, while balanced scalar attractors can be transversely attracting. These results show that large constant learning rates can change the training attractor of the learned transformer rather than merely accelerating convergence: beyond sharp stability thresholds, finite-step training may settle into cycles, bounded chaos, or divergence instead of a single in-context linear-regression solution. We also discuss the consequences for mini-batch gradient descent based training methods.

In modern deep learning, weight decay is often credited with "stabilizing" training dynamics, diverging from its classical role as a static regularization penalty. We investigate a fundamental question: *does weight decay stabilize training dynamics, and if so, through which mechanism?* Indeed, training stability is understood through different but related notions in the literature. We consider how weight decay affects the parameter-space dynamics and loss sharpness by analyzing its effects at the \emph{Edge of Stability} (EoS). We show that weight decay robustly slows *progressive sharpening}. Furthermore, we uncover a striking architecture-dependent phase transition. In CNNs, weight decay dampens the oscillations at the EoS, while in MLPs, increasing weight decay causes a phase transition in which the sharpness stabilizes at a threshold significantly below the theoretical $\frac{2}η$ boundary. We develop a mathematical framework that accurately models these phenomena and identify the global alignment of the parameter vector and the sharpness gradient as the mechanistic driver of the phase transition. Importantly, we show that these phenomena translate into stability in terms of search in function-space (NTK). Last, this shows that curvature thresholds obtained from convex/quadratic heuristics may not be reliable stability diagnostics under regularization.

We propose a variational quantum classifier operating on high dimensional deep representations via amplitude encoding, stabilized by a learnable classical pre encoding layer.By combining normalized amplitude embeddings with bounded quantum observables, the resulting model induces a structured and smooth hypothesis class with controlled sensitivity to input variations. Model reliability is assessed using SAFE-AI metrics derived from the Cramer von Mises divergence, enabling consistent evaluation across accuracy, robustness, and explainability dimensions. Empirical results show that the proposed quantum model provides competitive predictive performance compared with strong classical baselines while exhibiting a more balanced SAFE reliability profile, with improved robustness to noise and stability under structured feature removal. These findings suggest that variational quantum circuits offer a principled mechanism for stability oriented SAFE learning in safety critical settings.

This paper studies the identifiability and stability of drifting fields within the framework of Generative Modeling via Drifting. The motivating question is whether a zero-drift equilibrium identifies the target distribution, and whether an approximate zero drift implies weak distributional convergence. Since the original drifting model employs the Laplace kernel by default, we first analyze why standard Gaussian score-based arguments fail to apply. This analysis motivates the introduction of companion-elliptic kernel families, which are characterized by a companion potential satisfying an elliptic closure relation. We show that this class naturally contains the Laplace kernel and consists precisely of Gaussian and Matérn kernels with smoothness parameter $ν\ge 1/2$. Within this class, we establish field identifiability for arbitrary Borel probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$: if the drifting field vanishes identically, then the two measures must coincide. As for stability, we demonstrate that field convergence alone does not guarantee weak convergence, since mass may escape to infinity while remaining invisible to the field. Although tightness of the sequence directly removes this obstruction and restores weak stability, we prove that, even without tightness, every $C_0$-vague cluster point lies exactly on the defect ray $\{cp:0\le c\le1\}$. Consequently, a single scalar $C_0$-observable suffices to detect the missing mass and recover weak convergence.

The trustworthiness of AI decision-making systems is increasingly important. A key feature of such systems is the ability to provide recommendations for how an individual may reverse a negative decision, a problem known as algorithmic recourse. Existing approaches treat recourse outcomes as counterfactuals of a fixed unit, ignoring that real-world recourse involves repeated decisions on the same individual under possibly different latent conditions. We develop a causal framework that models recourse as a process over pre- and post-intervention outcomes, allowing for partial stability and resampling of latent variables. We introduce post-recourse stability conditions that enable reasoning about recourse from observational data alone, and develop a copula-based algorithm for inferring the effects of recourse under these conditions. For settings where paired observations of the same individual before and after intervention are available (called recourse data), we develop methods for inferring copula parameters and performing goodness-of-fit testing. When the copula model is rejected, we provide a distribution-free algorithm for learning recourse effects directly from recourse data. We demonstrate the value of the proposed methods on real and semi-synthetic datasets.

We introduce Pion, a spectrum-preserving optimizer for large language model (LLM) training based on orthogonal equivalence transformation. Unlike additive optimizers such as Adam and Muon, Pion updates each weight matrix through left and right orthogonal transformations, preserving its singular values throughout training. This yields an optimization mechanism that modulates the geometry of weight matrices while keeping their spectral norm fixed. We derive the Pion update rule, systematically examine its design choices, and analyze its convergence behavior along with several key properties. Empirical results show that Pion offers a stable and competitive alternative to standard optimizers for both LLM pretraining and finetuning.