Given taxi-ride counts information between departure and destination locations, how can we forecast their future demands?

Given taxi-ride counts information between departure and destination locations, how can we forecast their future demands? In general, given a data stream of events with seasonal patterns that innovate over time, how can we effectively and efficiently forecast future events? In this paper, we propose Shifting Seasonal Matrix Factorization approach, namely SSMF, that can adaptively learn multiple seasonal patterns (called regimes), as well as switching between them. Our proposed method has the following properties: (a) it accurately forecasts future events by detecting regime shifts in seasonal patterns as the data stream evolves; (b) it works in an online setting, i.e., processes each observation in constant time and memory; (c) it effectively realizes regime shifts without human intervention by using a lossless data compression scheme. We demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art baseline methods by accurately forecasting upcoming events on three real-world data streams.

Technical quality: I would rate marginally below 3 if given the option. The model definition was clear. The algorithms followed a well established framework [14], and appeared solid. However, maybe a bit undermined by its presentation, the paper did not seem to clearly demonstrate the empirical advantage of introducing the Sobolev prior in the results section. Especially, in Figure 2, it was not clear in what aspect the SSMF method was better than the two alternatives.

Given taxi-ride counts information between departure and destination locations, how can we forecast their future demands? In general, given a data stream of events with seasonal patterns that innovate over time, how can we effectively and efficiently forecast future events? In this paper, we propose Shifting Seasonal Matrix Factorization approach, namely SSMF, that can adaptively learn multiple seasonal patterns (called regimes), as well as switching between them. Our proposed method has the following properties: (a) it accurately forecasts future events by detecting regime shifts in seasonal patterns as the data stream evolves; (b) it works in an online setting, i.e., processes each observation in constant time and memory; (c) it effectively realizes regime shifts without human intervention by using a lossless data compression scheme. We demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art baseline methods by accurately forecasting upcoming events on three real-world data streams.

The connection between galaxies and their host dark matter (DM) halos is critical to our understanding of cosmology, galaxy formation, and DM physics. To maximize the return of upcoming cosmological surveys, we need an accurate way to model this complex relationship. Many techniques have been developed to model this connection, from Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) to empirical and semi-analytic models to hydrodynamic. Hydrodynamic simulations can incorporate more detailed astrophysical processes but are computationally expensive; HODs, on the other hand, are computationally cheap but have limited accuracy. In this work, we present NeHOD, a generative framework based on variational diffusion model and Transformer, for painting galaxies/subhalos on top of DM with an accuracy of hydrodynamic simulations but at a computational cost similar to HOD. By modeling galaxies/subhalos as point clouds, instead of binning or voxelization, we can resolve small spatial scales down to the resolution of the simulations. For each halo, NeHOD predicts the positions, velocities, masses, and concentrations of its central and satellite galaxies. We train NeHOD on the TNG-Warm DM suite of the DREAMS project, which consists of 1024 high-resolution zoom-in hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way-mass halos with varying warm DM mass and astrophysical parameters. We show that our model captures the complex relationships between subhalo properties as a function of the simulation parameters, including the mass functions, stellar-halo mass relations, concentration-mass relations, and spatial clustering. Our method can be used for a large variety of downstream applications, from galaxy clustering to strong lensing studies.

Simplex-structured matrix factorization (SSMF) is a generalization of nonnegative matrix factorization, a fundamental interpretable data analysis model, and has applications in hyperspectral unmixing and topic modeling. To obtain identifiable solutions, a standard approach is to find minimum-volume solutions. By taking advantage of the duality/polarity concept for polytopes, we convert minimum-volume SSMF in the primal space to a maximum-volume problem in the dual space. We first prove the identifiability of this maximum-volume dual problem. Then, we use this dual formulation to provide a novel optimization approach which bridges the gap between two existing families of algorithms for SSMF, namely volume minimization and facet identification. Numerical experiments show that the proposed approach performs favorably compared to the state-of-the-art SSMF algorithms.

Given taxi-ride counts information between departure and destination locations, how can we forecast their future demands? In general, given a data stream of events with seasonal patterns that innovate over time, how can we effectively and efficiently forecast future events? In this paper, we propose Shifting Seasonal Matrix Factorization approach, namely SSMF, that can adaptively learn multiple seasonal patterns (called regimes), as well as switching between them. Our proposed method has the following properties: (a) it accurately forecasts future events by detecting regime shifts in seasonal patterns as the data stream evolves; (b) it works in an online setting, i.e., processes each observation in constant time and memory; (c) it effectively realizes regime shifts without human intervention by using a lossless data compression scheme. We demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art baseline methods by accurately forecasting upcoming events on three real-world data streams.

In this paper, we provide novel algorithms with identifiability guarantees for simplex-structured matrix factorization (SSMF), a generalization of nonnegative matrix factorization. Current state-of-the-art algorithms that provide identifiability results for SSMF rely on the sufficiently scattered condition (SSC) which requires the data points to be well spread within the convex hull of the basis vectors. The conditions under which our proposed algorithms recover the unique decomposition is in most cases much weaker than the SSC. We only require to have $d$ points on each facet of the convex hull of the basis vectors whose dimension is $d-1$. The key idea is based on extracting facets containing the largest number of points. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach on synthetic data sets and hyperspectral images, showing that it outperforms state-of-the-art SSMF algorithms as it is able to handle higher noise levels, rank deficient matrices, outliers, and input data that highly violates the SSC.

Beta process is the standard nonparametric Bayesian prior for latent factor model. In this paper, we derive a structured mean-field variational inference algorithm for a beta process non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) model with Poisson likelihood. Unlike the linear Gaussian model, which is well-studied in the nonparametric Bayesian literature, NMF model with beta process prior does not enjoy the conjugacy. We leverage the recently developed stochastic structured mean-field variational inference to relax the conjugacy constraint and restore the dependencies among the latent variables in the approximating variational distribution. Preliminary results on both synthetic and real examples demonstrate that the proposed inference algorithm can reasonably recover the hidden structure of the data.