State-space models (SSMs) are powerful probabilistic tools for modeling time-varying systems with latent dynamics. Inference in SSMs involves the estimation of latent states and parameters. In this work, we focus on parameter inference, which for SSMs is in general a very challenging problem due to the intractability of the likelihood. Recently, neural estimation methods, such as sequential neural likelihood (SNL), have shown promising results in Bayesian inference problems. In this paper, we show that SNL, when applied to the SSM setting, suffers important limitations, such as requiring a large amount of simulated samples to achieve a moderate performance, scaling poorly with sequence length, while not being amortized. We then introduce a novel inference algorithm called truncated-SNL (T-SNL), which addresses the limitations of SNL. Our algorithm is more accurate, more stable and robust during training, more scalable to longer temporal sequences, and can be amortized when new observations become available. Our experiments show that T-SNL is sample-efficient, robust, and flexible algorithm which outperforms other approaches.

This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space model together to form a stochastic and sequential neural generative model. The clear separation of deterministic and stochastic layers allows a structured variational inference network to track the factorization of the model's posterior distribution. By retaining both the nonlinear recursive structure of a recurrent neural network and averaging over the uncertainty in a latent path, like a state space model, we improve the state of the art results on the Blizzard and TIMIT speech modeling data sets by a large margin, while achieving comparable performances to competing methods on polyphonic music modeling.

We formalize and generalize the notation of Section 4.1 and prove the results. For the remainder of this section, we fix a dimension D (e.g. The D-dimensional SSM will be a map from a function u: D! to y: D!. Definition 2 (Indexing notation). Given a subset I [D], let I denote its complement [D]\I. Given a 2 N1 and b 2 N2, let a b 2 N1 N2 be defined as (a b)n1,n2 = an1bn2.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) are gaining popularity as effective foundational architectures for sequential data, demonstrating outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains alongside desirable scalability properties. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for a selectivity mechanism leveraging multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. Mamba, GLA, Hawk/Griffin, HGRN2), then the resulting architecture can surpass attention-powered foundation models trained on text in both accuracy and efficiency, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to the selectivity mechanism, often linked to in-context learning, using tools from Rough Path Theory. We provide a framework for the theoretical analysis of generalized selective SSMs, fully characterizing their expressive power and identifying the gating mechanism as the crucial architectural choice. Our analysis provides a closed-form description of the expressive powers of modern SSMs, such as Mamba, quantifying theoretically the drastic improvement in performance from the previous generation of models, such as S4. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models, but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants. In particular, it suggests cross-channel interactions could play a vital role in future improvements.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. It, however, is challenging as it requires methods to (1) have high expressive power of representing complicated dependencies along the time axis to capture both long-term progression and seasonal patterns, (2) capture the inter-variate dependencies when it is informative, (3) dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and (4) have efficient training and inference for very long sequences. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera, an expressive variation of the 2-dimensional SSMs with careful design of parameters to maintain high expressive power while keeping the training complexity linear. Using two SSM heads with different discretization processes and input-dependent parameters, Chimera is provably able to learn long-term progression, seasonal patterns, and desirable dynamic autoregressive processes. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Structured state space models (SSMs), the core engine behind prominent neural networks such as S4 and Mamba, are linear dynamical systems adhering to a specified structure, most notably diagonal. In contrast to typical neural network modules, whose parameterizations are real, SSMs often use complex parameterizations. Theoretically explaining the benefits of complex parameterizations for SSMs is an open problem. The current paper takes a step towards its resolution, by establishing formal gaps between real and complex diagonal SSMs. Firstly, we prove that while a moderate dimension suffices in order for a complex SSM to express all mappings of a real SSM, a much higher dimension is needed for a real SSM to express mappings of a complex SSM. Secondly, we prove that even if the dimension of a real SSM is high enough to express a given mapping, typically, doing so requires the parameters of the real SSM to hold exponentially large values, which cannot be learned in practice. In contrast, a complex SSM can express any given mapping with moderate parameter values. Experiments corroborate our theory, and suggest a potential extension of the theory that accounts for selectivity, a new architectural feature yielding state of the art performance.

This paper studies the scaling behavior of state-space models (SSMs) and their structured variants, such as Mamba, that have recently arisen in popularity as alternatives to transformer-based neural network architectures. Specifically, we focus on the capability of SSMs to learn features as their network width approaches infinity. Our findings reveal that established scaling rules, such as the Maximal Update Parameterization, fail to support feature learning as these models cannot be represented in the form of Tensor Programs. Additionally, we demonstrate that spectral scaling conditions, shown to be effective for feature learning in a host of other architectures, do not hold the same implications for SSMs. Through a detailed signal propagation analysis in SSMs, both forward and backward, we identify the appropriate scaling necessary for non-trivial feature evolution in the infinite-width limit. Our proposed scaling shows behavior akin to the Maximal Update Parameterization, such as improved stability, better generalization, and transferability of optimal hyper-parameters from small to large scale SSMs.

Data-driven inference of the generative dynamics underlying a set of observed time series is of growing interest in machine learning and the natural sciences. In neuroscience, such methods promise to alleviate the need to handcraft models based on biophysical principles and allow to automatize the inference of inter-individual differences in brain dynamics. Recent breakthroughs in training techniques for state space models (SSMs) specifically geared toward dynamical systems (DS) reconstruction (DSR) enable to recover the underlying system including its geometrical (attractor) and long-term statistical invariants from even short time series. These techniques are based on control-theoretic ideas, like modern variants of teacher forcing (TF), to ensure stable loss gradient propagation while training. However, as it currently stands, these techniques are not directly applicable to data modalities where current observations depend on an entire history of previous states due to a signal's filtering properties, as common in neuroscience (and physiology more generally). Prominent examples are the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signal in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) or Ca$^{2+}$ imaging data. Such types of signals render the SSM's decoder model non-invertible, a requirement for previous TF-based methods.Here, exploiting the recent success of control techniques for training SSMs, we propose a novel algorithm that solves this problem and scales exceptionally well with model dimensionality and filter length. We demonstrate its efficiency in reconstructing dynamical systems, including their state space geometry and long-term temporal properties, from just short BOLD time series.