We study calibration measures in a sequential prediction setup.

We initiate the study of the truthfulness of calibration measures in sequential prediction. A calibration measure is said to be truthful if the forecaster (approximately) minimizes the expected penalty by predicting the conditional expectation of the next outcome, given the prior distribution of outcomes. Truthfulness is an important property of calibration measures, ensuring that the forecaster is not incentivized to exploit the system with deliberate poor forecasts. This makes it an essential desideratum for calibration measures, alongside typical requirements, such as soundness and completeness. We conduct a taxonomy of existing calibration measures and their truthfulness. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that all of them are far from being truthful. That is, under existing calibration measures, there are simple distributions on which a polylogarithmic (or even zero) penalty is achievable, while truthful prediction leads to a polynomial penalty. Our main contribution is the introduction of a new calibration measure termed the Subsampled Smooth Calibration Error (SSCE) under which truthful prediction is optimal up to a constant multiplicative factor.

We consider the use of deep learning for covariance estimation. We propose to globally learn a neural network that will then be applied locally at inference time. Leveraging recent advancements in self-supervised foundational models, we train the network without any labeling by simply masking different samples and learning to predict their covariance given their surrounding neighbors. The architecture is based on the popular attention mechanism. Its main advantage over classical methods is the automatic exploitation of global characteristics without any distributional assumptions or regularization. It can be pre-trained as a foundation model and then be repurposed for various downstream tasks, e.g., adaptive target detection in radar or hyperspectral imagery.