Decision trees are powerful machine learning algorithms, widely used in fields such as economics and medicine for their simplicity and interpretability. However, decision trees such as CART are prone to overfitting, especially when grown deep or the sample size is small. Conventional methods to reduce overfitting include pre-pruning and post-pruning, which constrain the growth of uninformative branches. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach by introducing a covariance-driven splitting criterion for regression trees (CovRT). This method is more robust to overfitting than the empirical risk minimization criterion used in CART, as it produces more balanced and stable splits and more effectively identifies covariates with true signals. We establish an oracle inequality of CovRT and prove that its predictive accuracy is comparable to that of CART in high-dimensional settings. We find that CovRT achieves superior prediction accuracy compared to CART in both simulations and real-world tasks.

Decision trees have been studied extensively in the context of fairness, aiming to maximize prediction performance while ensuring non-discrimination against different groups. Techniques in this space usually focus on imposing constraints at training time, constraining the search space so that solutions which display unacceptable values of relevant metrics are not considered, discarded, or discouraged. If we assume one target variable y and one sensitive attribute s, the design space of tree learning algorithms can be spanned as follows: (i) One can have one tree T that is built using an objective function that is a function of y, s, and T. For instance, one can build a tree based on the weighted information gain regarding y (maximizing) and s (minimizing). (ii) The second option is to have one tree model T that uses an objective function in y and T and a constraint on s and T. Here, s is no longer part of the objective, but part of a constraint. This can be achieved greedily by aborting a further split as soon as the condition that optimizes the objective in y fails to satisfy the constraint on s. A simple way to explore other splits is to backtrack during tree construction once a fairness constraint is violated. (iii) The third option is to have two trees T_y and T_s, one for y and one for s, such that the tree structure for y and s does not have to be shared. In this way, information regarding y and regarding s can be used independently, without having to constrain the choices in tree construction by the mutual information between the two variables. Quite surprisingly, of the three options, only the first one and the greedy variant of the second have been studied in the literature so far. In this paper, we introduce the above two additional options from that design space and characterize them experimentally on multiple datasets.

Oblique decision trees have attracted attention due to their potential for improved classification performance over traditional axis-aligned decision trees. However, methods that rely on exhaustive search to find oblique splits face computational challenges. As a result, they have not been widely explored. We introduce a novel algorithm, Classification and Regression Tree - Exhaustive Linear Combinations (CART-ELC), for inducing oblique decision trees that performs an exhaustive search on a restricted set of hyperplanes. We then investigate the algorithm's computational complexity and its predictive capabilities. Our results demonstrate that CART-ELC consistently achieves competitive performance on small datasets, often yielding statistically significant improvements in classification accuracy relative to existing decision tree induction algorithms, while frequently producing shallower, simpler, and thus more interpretable trees.

Ordinal Classification (OC) is a machine learning field that addresses classification tasks where the labels exhibit a natural order. Unlike nominal classification, which treats all classes as equally distinct, OC takes the ordinal relationship into account, producing more accurate and relevant results. This is particularly critical in applications where the magnitude of classification errors has implications. Despite this, OC problems are often tackled using nominal methods, leading to suboptimal solutions. Although decision trees are one of the most popular classification approaches, ordinal tree-based approaches have received less attention when compared to other classifiers. This work conducts an experimental study of tree-based methodologies specifically designed to capture ordinal relationships. A comprehensive survey of ordinal splitting criteria is provided, standardising the notations used in the literature for clarity. Three ordinal splitting criteria, Ordinal Gini (OGini), Weighted Information Gain (WIG), and Ranking Impurity (RI), are compared to the nominal counterparts of the first two (Gini and information gain), by incorporating them into a decision tree classifier. An extensive repository considering 45 publicly available OC datasets is presented, supporting the first experimental comparison of ordinal and nominal splitting criteria using well-known OC evaluation metrics. Statistical analysis of the results highlights OGini as the most effective ordinal splitting criterion to date. Source code, datasets, and results are made available to the research community.

Despite the rise to dominance of deep learning in unstructured data domains, treebased methods such as Random Forests (RF) and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) are still the workhorses for handling discriminative tasks on tabular data. We explore generative extensions of these popular algorithms with a focus on explicitly modeling the data density (up to a normalization constant), thus enabling other applications besides sampling. As our main contribution we propose an energy-based generative boosting algorithm that is analogous to the second order boosting implemented in popular packages like XGBoost. We show that, despite producing a generative model capable of handling inference tasks over any input variable, our proposed algorithm can achieve similar discriminative performance to GBDT on a number of real world tabular datasets, outperforming alternative generative approaches. At the same time, we show that it is also competitive with neural network based models for sampling. Generative models have achieved tremendous success in computer vision and natural language processing, where the ability to generate synthetic data guided by user prompts opens up many exciting possibilities. While generating synthetic table records does not necessarily enjoy the same wide appeal, this problem has still received considerable attention as a potential avenue for bypassing privacy concerns when sharing data. Estimating the data density, p(x), is another typical application of generative models which enables a host of different use cases that can be particularly interesting for tabular data. Unlike discriminative models which are trained to perform inference over a single target variable, density models can be used more flexibly for inference over different variables or for out of distribution detection. They can also handle inference with missing data in a principled way by marginalizing over unobserved variables. The development of generative models for tabular data has mirrored its progression in computer vision with many of its Deep Learning (DL) approaches being adapted to the tabular domain (Jordon et al., 2018; Xu et al., 2019; Fan et al., 2020; Engelmann & Lessmann, 2021; Zhao et al., 2021; Kotelnikov et al., 2023). Unfortunately, these methods are only useful for sampling as they either don't model the density explicitly or can't evaluate it due to untractable marginalization over high dimensional latent variable spaces.

Decision trees are a popular tool in machine learning and yield easy-to-understand models. Several techniques have been proposed in the literature for learning a decision tree classifier, with different techniques working well for data from different domains. In this work, we develop approaches to design decision tree learning algorithms given repeated access to data from the same domain. We propose novel parameterized classes of node splitting criteria in top-down algorithms, which interpolate between popularly used entropy and Gini impurity based criteria, and provide theoretical bounds on the number of samples needed to learn the splitting function appropriate for the data at hand. We also study the sample complexity of tuning prior parameters in Bayesian decision tree learning, and extend our results to decision tree regression. We further consider the problem of tuning hyperparameters in pruning the decision tree for classical pruning algorithms including min-cost complexity pruning. We also study the interpretability of the learned decision trees and introduce a data-driven approach for optimizing the explainability versus accuracy trade-off using decision trees. Finally, we demonstrate the significance of our approach on real world datasets by learning data-specific decision trees which are simultaneously more accurate and interpretable.

Real-life machine learning problems exhibit distributional shifts in the data from one time to another or from on place to another. This behavior is beyond the scope of the traditional empirical risk minimization paradigm, which assumes i.i.d. distribution of data over time and across locations. The emerging field of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization addresses this reality with new theory and algorithms which incorporate environmental, or era-wise information into the algorithms. So far, most research has been focused on linear models and/or neural networks. In this research we develop two new splitting criteria for decision trees, which allow us to apply ideas from OOD generalization research to decision tree models, including random forest and gradient-boosting decision trees. The new splitting criteria use era-wise information associated with each data point to allow tree-based models to find split points that are optimal across all disjoint eras in the data, instead of optimal over the entire data set pooled together, which is the default setting. In this paper we describe the problem setup in the context of financial markets. We describe the new splitting criteria in detail and develop unique experiments to showcase the benefits of these new criteria, which improve metrics in our experiments out-of-sample. The new criteria are incorporated into the a state-of-the-art gradient boosted decision tree model in the Scikit-Learn code base, which is made freely available.

This paper revisits an adaptation of the random forest algorithm for Fr\'echet regression, addressing the challenge of regression in the context of random objects in metric spaces. Recognizing the limitations of previous approaches, we introduce a new splitting rule that circumvents the computationally expensive operation of Fr\'echet means by substituting with a medoid-based approach. We validate this approach by demonstrating its asymptotic equivalence to Fr\'echet mean-based procedures and establish the consistency of the associated regression estimator. The paper provides a sound theoretical framework and a more efficient computational approach to Fr\'echet regression, broadening its application to non-standard data types and complex use cases.