Estimating catastrophic harms from frontier AI is hindered by deep ambiguity: many of its risks are not only unobserved but unanticipated by analysts. The central limitation of current risk analysis is the inability to populate the $\textit{catastrophic event space}$, or the set of potential large-scale harms to which probabilities might be assigned. This intractability is worsened by the $\textit{Lucretius problem}$, or the tendency to infer future risks only from past experience. We propose a process of $\textit{dark speculation}$, in which systematically generating and refining catastrophic scenarios ("qualitative" work) is coupled with estimating their likelihoods and associated damages (quantitative underwriting analysis). The idea is neither to predict the future nor to enable insurance for its own sake, but to use narrative and underwriting tools together to generate probability distributions over outcomes. We formalize this process using a simplified catastrophic Lévy stochastic framework and propose an iterative institutional design in which (1) speculation (including scenario planning) generates detailed catastrophic event narratives, (2) insurance underwriters assign probabilistic and financial parameters to these narratives, and (3) decision-makers synthesize the results into summary statistics to inform judgment. Analysis of the model reveals the value of (a) maintaining independence between speculation and underwriting, (b) analyzing multiple risk categories in parallel, and (c) generating "thick" catastrophic narrative rich in causal (counterfactual) and mitigative detail. While the approach cannot eliminate deep ambiguity, it offers a systematic approach to reason about extreme, low-probability events in frontier AI, tempering complacency and overreaction. The framework is adaptable for iterative use and can be further augmented with AI systems.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents, acting on their users' behalf to manipulate and analyze data, are likely to become the dominant workload for data systems in the future. When working with data, agents employ a high-throughput process of exploration and solution formulation for the given task, one we call agentic speculation. The sheer volume and inefficiencies of agentic speculation can pose challenges for present-day data systems. We argue that data systems need to adapt to more natively support agentic workloads. We take advantage of the characteristics of agentic speculation that we identify, i.e., scale, heterogeneity, redundancy, and steerability - to outline a number of new research opportunities for a new agent-first data systems architecture, ranging from new query interfaces, to new query processing techniques, to new agentic memory stores.

Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT o1, ChatGPT o3, and DeepSeek R1 have shown great potential in solving difficult problems. However, current LLM evaluation benchmarks are limited to one-step interactions. Some of the existing sequence decision-making environments, such as TextStarCraftII and LLM-PySC2, are too complicated and require hours of interaction to complete a game. In this paper, we introduce LLM-Cave, a benchmark and light environment for LLM reasoning and decision-making systems. This environment is a classic instance in the era of Symbolism. Artificial intelligence enables the agent to explore the environment and avoid potential losses by reasoning about nearby dangers using partial observable state information. In the experiment, we evaluated the sequential reasoning ability, decision-making performance and computational efficiency of mainstream large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4o-mini, o1-mini, and DeepSeek-R1. Experiments show that while Deepseek-R1 achieved the highest success rate on complex reasoning tasks, smaller models like 4o-mini significantly narrowed the performance gap on challenges by employing Chain of Speculation and Planner-Critic strategies, at the expense of reduced computational efficiency. This indicates that structured, multi-step reasoning combined with an LLM-based feedback mechanism can substantially enhance an LLM's decision-making capabilities, providing a promising direction for improving reasoning in weaker models and suggesting a new reasoning-centered benchmark for LLM assessment. Our code is open-sourced in https://github.com/puleya1277/CaveEnv.

LLM-based search agents achieve strong performance but suffer from severe latency, as each step requires serialized LLM reasoning followed by action of tool execution. We revisit this bottleneck through the lens of speculation. While traditional predict-verify speculation paradigm can break serial execution, its benefit remains limited, as it retains the full original workload and adds extra inference overhead. We observe that early agent steps often involve simple evidence-gathering, where correct actions can often be predicted without full reasoning. Building on these observations, we present SPAgent, an algorithm-system co-design framework that expands the role of speculation in search agents to reduce latency. Algorithmically, SPAgent introduces a two-phase adaptive speculation mechanism that selectively omits verification when safe. System-wise, a two-level scheduler regulates speculative requests based on engine load to ensure speculation remains beneficial. We implement SPAgent in real-world systems. Across extensive experimental settings, SPAgent achieves up to $1.65\times$ end-to-end speedup while maintaining same or even achieving higher accuracy, enabling practical deployment of multi-step search agents.

Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) is an influential sequential decision-making algorithm notably employed in AlphaZero.

After weeks of silence, NASA has officially dismissed speculation that 3I/ATLAS has anything to do with aliens. After the temporary shutdown of the US government, NASA has finally started its nonessential work back up. It's starting off with a bang: The agency called a press conference to show its hitherto reserved images of the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS. NASA scientists also confirmed that 3I/ATLAS is in fact a comet, contrary to the speculations about alien technology flooding the internet. During the broadcast, a panel of scientists showed the results of observations obtained by different NASA missions across various points in the journey 3I/ATLAS has taken .

Autoregressive (AR) image generation models are capable of producing high-fidelity images but often suffer from slow inference due to their inherently sequential, token-by-token decoding process. Speculative decoding, which employs a lightweight draft model to approximate the output of a larger AR model, has shown promise in accelerating text generation without compromising quality. However, its application to image generation remains largely underexplored. The challenges stem from a significantly larger sampling space, which complicates the alignment between the draft and target model outputs, coupled with the inadequate use of the two-dimensional spatial structure inherent in images, thereby limiting the modeling of local dependencies. To overcome these challenges, we introduce Hawk, a new approach that harnesses the spatial structure of images to guide the speculative model toward more accurate and efficient predictions. Experimental results on multiple text-to-image benchmarks demonstrate a 1.71x speedup over standard AR models, while preserving both image fidelity and diversity.

Despite growing interest in AI agents across industry and academia, their execution in an environment is often slow, hampering training, evaluation, and deployment. For example, a game of chess between two state-of-the-art agents may take hours. A critical bottleneck is that agent behavior unfolds sequentially: each action requires an API call, and these calls can be time-consuming. Inspired by speculative execution in microprocessors and speculative decoding in LLM inference, we propose speculative actions, a lossless framework for general agentic systems that predicts likely actions using faster models, enabling multiple steps to be executed in parallel. We evaluate this framework across three agentic environments: gaming, e-commerce, web search, and a "lossy" extension for an operating systems environment. In all cases, speculative actions achieve substantial accuracy in next-action prediction (up to 55%), translating into significant reductions in end-to-end latency. Moreover, performance can be further improved through stronger guessing models, top-K action prediction, multi-step speculation, and uncertainty-aware optimization, opening a promising path toward deploying low-latency agentic systems in the real world.

If the recent embrace of seemingly--and only seemingly--autonomous machines is any indication, something much less chic than the future premised in "The Matrix" awaits us. During the 1999 film's sequence of down-the-rabbit-hole scenes, Morpheus (Laurence Fishburne) flips the channel on the late-nineties metropolis as Neo (Keanu Reeves) knows it, revealing it to be a "computer-generated dream world" that pacifies a dozing human race whose bioelectricity is extracted by machines, for machines, circa 2197. The "world as it exists today" is instead a dark and decaying place--the "desert of the real," as Morpheus coolly puts it. It is also, he explains, the aftermath of early twenty-first-century optimism, a time when, he says, "we marvelled at our own magnificence as we gave birth to A.I." Still, dystopia as envisioned by the movie's directors, the Wachowskis (and their collaborators, on that film, particularly in production and costume design), looks pretty rad, in cinematic terms. The glint and thrum of Y2K aesthetics--as contrasted with the droning conservatism of the white-collar office--read as anticipatory rather than melancholic, looking toward a future liberated from systems of old.