Streamflow, vital for water resource management, is governed by complex hydrological systems involving intermediate processes driven by meteorological forces. While deep learning models have achieved state-of-the-art results of streamflow prediction, their end-to-end single-task learning approach often fails to capture the causal relationships within these systems. To address this, we propose Hierarchical Conditional Multi-Task Learning (HCMTL), a hierarchical approach that jointly models soil water and snowpack processes based on their causal connections to streamflow. HCMTL utilizes task embeddings to connect network modules, enhancing flexibility and expressiveness while capturing unobserved processes beyond soil water and snowpack. It also incorporates the Conditional Mini-Batch strategy to improve long time series modeling. We compare HCMTL with five baselines on a global dataset. HCMTL's superior performance across hundreds of drainage basins over extended periods shows that integrating domain-specific causal knowledge into deep learning enhances both prediction accuracy and interpretability. This is essential for advancing our understanding of complex hydrological systems and supporting efficient water resource management to mitigate natural disasters like droughts and floods.

Multi-task learning (MTL) aims to improve the generalization performance of multiple tasks by exploiting the shared factors among them. Various metrics (e.g., F-score, Area Under the ROC Curve) are used to evaluate the performances of MTL methods. Most existing MTL methods try to minimize either the misclassified errors for classification or the mean squared errors for regression. In this paper, we propose a method to directly optimize the evaluation metrics for a large family of MTL problems. The formulation of MTL that directly optimizes evaluation metrics is the combination of two parts: (1) a regularizer defined on the weight matrix over all tasks, in order to capture the relatedness of these tasks; (2) a sum of multiple structured hinge losses, each corresponding to a surrogate of some evaluation metric on one task. This formulation is challenging in optimization because both of its parts are non-smooth. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel optimization procedure based on the alternating direction scheme of multipliers, where we decompose the whole optimization problem into a sub-problem corresponding to the regularizer and another sub-problem corresponding to the structured hinge losses. For a large family of MTL problems, the first sub-problem has closed-form solutions. To solve the second sub-problem, we propose an efficient primal-dual algorithm via coordinate ascent. Extensive evaluation results demonstrate that, in a large family of MTL problems, the proposed MTL method of directly optimization evaluation metrics has superior performance gains against the corresponding baseline methods.

We introduce Scheduling MTL (SMTL) an extension of Metric Temporal Logic that supports the specification of complex scheduling problems with repeated and conditional occurrences of activities, and rich temporal relationships among them. We define the syntax and semantics of SMTL, and explore natural restrictions of the language to gain tractability. We also provide an algorithm for finding a schedule to a problem specified as an SMTL formula, and establish a novel equivalence between a fragment of MTL and simple temporal networks, a widely-used formalism in AI temporal planning.

We introduce Scheduling MTL (SMTL) an extension of Metric Temporal Logic that supports the specification of complex scheduling problems with repeated and conditional occurrences of activities, and rich temporal relationships among them. We define the syntax and semantics of SMTL, and explore natural restrictions of the language to gain tractability. We also provide an algorithm for finding a schedule to a problem specified as an SMTL formula, and establish a novel equivalence between a fragment of MTL and simple temporal networks, a widely-used formalism in AI temporal planning.