Study of 320,000 adults reveals there is no safe level of smoking, with even light smokers facing significantly higher risks of heart disease and early death.

The conversational capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) suggest that they may be able to perform as automated talk therapists. It is crucial to know if these systems would be effective and adhere to known standards. We present a counsellor chatbot that focuses on motivating tobacco smokers to quit smoking. It uses a state-of-the-art LLM and a widely applied therapeutic approach called Motivational Interviewing (MI), and was evolved in collaboration with clinician-scientists with expertise in MI. We also describe and validate an automated assessment of both the chatbot's adherence to MI and client responses. The chatbot was tested on 106 participants, and their confidence that they could succeed in quitting smoking was measured before the conversation and one week later. Participants' confidence increased by an average of 1.7 on a 0-10 scale. The automated assessment of the chatbot showed adherence to MI standards in 98% of utterances, higher than human counsellors. The chatbot scored well on a participant-reported metric of perceived empathy but lower than typical human counsellors. Furthermore, participants' language indicated a good level of motivation to change, a key goal in MI. These results suggest that the automation of talk therapy with a modern LLM has promise.

Recent studies revealed structural and functional brain changes in heavy smokers. However, the specific changes in topological brain connections are not well understood. We used Gaussian Undirected Graphs with the graphical lasso algorithm on rs-fMRI data from smokers and non-smokers to identify significant changes in brain connections. Our results indicate high stability in the estimated graphs and identify several brain regions significantly affected by smoking, providing valuable insights for future clinical research.

Large Language Models have undoubtedly revolutionized the Natural Language Processing field, the current trend being to promote one-model-for-all tasks (sentiment analysis, translation, etc.). However, the statistical mechanisms at work in the larger language models struggle to exploit the relevant information when it is very sparse, when it is a weak signal. This is the case, for example, for the classification of long domain-specific documents, when the relevance relies on a single relevant word or on very few relevant words from technical jargon. In the medical domain, it is essential to determine whether a given report contains critical information about a patient's condition. This critical information is often based on one or few specific isolated terms. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical model which exploits a short list of potential target terms to retrieve candidate sentences and represent them into the contextualized embedding of the target term(s) they contain. A pooling of the term(s) embedding(s) entails the document representation to be classified. We evaluate our model on one public medical document benchmark in English and on one private French medical dataset. We show that our narrower hierarchical model is better than larger language models for retrieving relevant long documents in a domain-specific context.

Feedforward neural networks (FNNs) are typically viewed as pure prediction algorithms, and their strong predictive performance has led to their use in many machine-learning applications. However, their flexibility comes with an interpretability trade-off; thus, FNNs have been historically less popular among statisticians. Nevertheless, classical statistical theory, such as significance testing and uncertainty quantification, is still relevant. Supplementing FNNs with methods of statistical inference, and covariate-effect visualisations, can shift the focus away from black-box prediction and make FNNs more akin to traditional statistical models. This can allow for more inferential analysis, and, hence, make FNNs more accessible within the statistical-modelling context.

Lung cancer is a significant cause of mortality worldwide, emphasizing the importance of early detection for improved survival rates. In this study, we propose a machine learning (ML) tool trained on data from the PLCO Cancer Screening Trial and validated on the NLST to estimate the likelihood of lung cancer occurrence within five years. The study utilized two datasets, the PLCO (n=55,161) and NLST (n=48,595), consisting of comprehensive information on risk factors, clinical measurements, and outcomes related to lung cancer. Data preprocessing involved removing patients who were not current or former smokers and those who had died of causes unrelated to lung cancer. Additionally, a focus was placed on mitigating bias caused by censored data. Feature selection, hyper-parameter optimization, and model calibration were performed using XGBoost, an ensemble learning algorithm that combines gradient boosting and decision trees. The ML model was trained on the pre-processed PLCO dataset and tested on the NLST dataset. The model incorporated features such as age, gender, smoking history, medical diagnoses, and family history of lung cancer. The model was well-calibrated (Brier score=0.044). ROC-AUC was 82% on the PLCO dataset and 70% on the NLST dataset. PR-AUC was 29% and 11% respectively. When compared to the USPSTF guidelines for lung cancer screening, our model provided the same recall with a precision of 13.1% vs. 9.3% on the PLCO dataset and 3.2% vs. 3.1% on the NLST dataset. The developed ML tool provides a freely available web application for estimating the likelihood of developing lung cancer within five years. By utilizing risk factors and clinical data, individuals can assess their risk and make informed decisions regarding lung cancer screening. This research contributes to the efforts in early detection and prevention strategies, aiming to reduce lung cancer-related mortality rates.

In this paper, our aim is to briefly survey and articulate the logical and philosophical foundations of using (first-order) logic to represent (probabilistic) knowledge in a non-technical fashion. Our motivation is three fold. First, for machine learning researchers unaware of why the research community cares about relational representations, this article can serve as a gentle introduction. Second, for logical experts who are newcomers to the learning area, such an article can help in navigating the differences between finite vs infinite, and subjective probabilities vs random-world semantics. Finally, for researchers from statistical relational learning and neuro-symbolic AI, who are usually embedded in finite worlds with subjective probabilities, appreciating what infinite domains and random-world semantics brings to the table is of utmost theoretical import.

An important part of a data scientist's role is to explain model predictions. Often, the person receiving the explanation will be non-technical. If you start talking about cost functions, hyperparameters or p-values you will be met with blank stares. We need to translate these technical concepts into layman's terms. This process can be more challenging than building the model itself. We will explore how you can give human-friendly explanations. We will do this by discussing some key characteristics of a good explanation. The focus will be on explaining individual predictions.

Think about a cigarette that knows its owner, refuses to be smoked in public, and alarms the parents if it identifies that their children are smoking. How about cigarettes that identify the health of a person, his behaviour and alarm them to not smoke when it is dangerous. This is the power of AI in smoking. Let us explore some of the possibilities that might become realities in the future of smoking. As of the year 2019, there were more than 1 billion smokers in the world and I am sure the number would have increased today.

I use Kaggle public dataset "Insurance Premium Prediction" in this exercise. The data includes independent variables: age, sex, bmi, children, smoker, region, and target variable -- expenses. Firstly, let's load the data and have a preliminary examination of the data using df.info() EDA is essential to both investigate the data quality and reveal hidden correlations among variables. In this exercise, I cover three techniques relevant to linear regression.