singularity
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A social network for AI looks disturbing, but it's not what you think
A social network for AI looks disturbing, but it's not what you think A social network solely for AI - no humans allowed - has made headlines around the world. Chatbots are using it to discuss humans' diary entries, describe existential crises or even plot world domination . It looks like an alarming development in the rise of the machines - but all is not as it seems. Like any chatbots, the AI agents on Moltbook are just creating statistically plausible strings of words - there is no understanding, intent or intelligence. And in any case, there's plenty of evidence that much of what we can read on the site is actually written by humans.
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Thermodynamic Characterizations of Singular Bayesian Models: Specific Heat, Susceptibility, and Entropy Flow in Posterior Geometry
Singular learning theory (SLT) \citep{watanabe2009algebraic,watanabe2018mathematical} provides a rigorous asymptotic framework for Bayesian models with non-identifiable parameterizations, yet the statistical meaning of its second-order invariant, the \emph{singular fluctuation}, has remained unclear. In this work, we show that singular fluctuation admits a precise and natural interpretation as a \emph{specific heat}: the second derivative of the Bayesian free energy with respect to temperature. Equivalently, it measures the posterior variance of the log-likelihood observable under the tempered Gibbs posterior. We further introduce a collection of related thermodynamic quantities, including entropy flow, prior susceptibility, and cross-susceptibility, that together provide a detailed geometric diagnosis of singular posterior structure. Through extensive numerical experiments spanning discrete symmetries, boundary singularities, continuous gauge freedoms, and piecewise (ReLU) models, we demonstrate that these thermodynamic signatures cleanly distinguish singularity types, exhibit stable finite-sample behavior, and reveal phase-transition--like phenomena as temperature varies. We also show empirically that the widely used WAIC estimator \citep{watanabe2010asymptotic, watanabe2013widely} is exactly twice the thermodynamic specific heat at unit temperature, clarifying its robustness in singular models.Our results establish a concrete bridge between singular learning theory and statistical mechanics, providing both theoretical insight and practical diagnostics for modern Bayesian models.
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