A central goal of modern causal inference is estimating heterogeneous treatment effects to answer questions like "how does an intervention affect each unit," rather than only on average. We study this problem with panel-data where we observe $n$ units across $m$ times under unknown, non-uniform treatment assignments. The data in this setting is naturally represented as a matrix of all unit--time treatment effects. Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects can then be expressed as obtaining a good estimation of each row's average in this matrix. This allows us to formulate the problem as matrix completion, which can be solved under natural low-rankness assumptions. However, existing matrix-completion guarantees are not powerful enough to get meaningful bounds for the per-row guarantee required for estimating the heterogeneous treatment effect; roughly speaking, they are only useful for estimating average treatment effect bounds, as also illustrated in a recent line of work. We give a simple, computationally efficient estimator that, without knowledge of the propensities and under standard low-rankness and regularity assumptions, achieves a row-wise $\ell_2$ error of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{\frac{1}{n} + \frac{n}{m^2}})$. Technically, our analysis establishes the first sharp row-wise $\ell_2$-perturbation bound for low-rank approximation, complementing existing spectral-, Frobenius-, and entrywise perturbation theory.

Fine-tuning a pretrained language model on a curated dataset can produce spurious correlations between the fine-tuning task and unintended latent factors -- such as misaligned personas or political slant -- that the curation procedure has entangled with the task. The model can latch onto these spurious correlations, leading to bias and reduced out-of-distribution generalisation. We prove that under reasonable assumptions on task complexity and the spurious correlation, such latent factors can be identified, without supervision, from the weights of a naive LoRA fine-tune. Existing approaches to removing bias, such as activation steering, remove identified factors from residual-stream activations, either at inference or during training. We argue, however, that the goal should be to remove the spurious correlation, not the latent factor itself, as the pretrained model may rely on it for genuine task signal. To enable this, we propose GRASP, GRadient projection of Associated Spurious Patterns, which prevents the model from acquiring new reliance on the identified latent factor while preserving any pretrained content along it. We validate on three fine-tuning tasks. The first two involve emergent misalignment, where fine-tuning on a narrow task -- in our case, writing insecure code and giving bad medical advice -- leads to misaligned responses on unrelated topics. Here our method completely removes misalignment in the insecure code case and reduces them by ~5x in the bad medical advice case, beating all baselines in the trade-off between misalignment-reduction and task-preservation. The last is a novel political-bias experiment, where fine-tuning on right-skewed Reddit financial-advice data causes political-lean drift on unrelated topics. Here our method reduces drift by more than half, while improving financial task performance, beating all baselines.

We develop a gradient flow on the space of probability measures defined on matrix-valued parameters induced by regularized Muon, an analytically smoothed version of the idealized Muon optimizer. The key observation is that the regularized orthogonalization map is the gradient of a smooth Fenchel-dual smoothing of the nuclear norm. This identifies the (regularized) Muon update as a mirror/prox step in the update variable, with momentum acting as the dual coordinate. We use this structure to lift Muon from a single matrix parameter to finite-particle probability objectives of the form $J(ρ)=R\left(\int F d ρ\right)$, a setting motivated by mean-field descriptions of neural-network training, and derive the inertial continuous-time limit. Using this structure, we derive the finite-particle continuous-time limit under the inertial scaling of step size and momentum, and then pass to a phase-space mean-field equation over probability laws on parameter-momentum pairs. The resulting flow can be shown to be a damped Hamiltonian probability dynamics whose kinetic energy is induced by the regularized Muon mirror potential. We prove an exact Hamiltonian dissipation identity, showing that the Hamiltonian energy decreases monotonically. While the target objective itself need not be monotone along the inertial Muon dynamics, under additional gradient-dominance, bounded-momentum, and curvature/alignment assumptions, we obtain continuous and discrete-time exponential convergence rates for the objective gap. We also study the well-posedness of the mean-field limit equation and establish propagation of chaos guarantees for the interacting particle system. Finally, we extend the formulation to Hilbert-valued feature maps on product matrix spaces, yielding a blockwise Muon probability flow applicable to smooth transformer mixture-of-experts models.

We study the evolution of hidden-weight spectra in wide neural networks trained by (stochastic) gradient descent. We develop a two-level dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) that jointly tracks bulk and outlier spectral dynamics for spiked ensembles whose spike directions remain statistically dependent on the random bulk. We apply this framework to two settings: (1) infinite-width nonlinear networks in mean-field/$μ$P scaling and (2) deep linear networks in the proportional high-dimensional limit, where width, input dimension, and sample size diverge with fixed ratios. Our theory predicts how outliers evolve with training time, width, output scale, and initialization variance. In deep linear networks, $μ$P yields width-consistent outlier dynamics and hyperparameter transfer, including width-stable growth of the leading NTK mode toward the edge of stability (EoS). In contrast, NTK parameterization exhibits strongly width-dependent outlier dynamics, despite converging to a stable large-width limit. We show that this bulk+outlier picture is descriptive of simple tasks with small output channels, but that tasks involving large numbers of outputs (ImageNet classification or GPT language modeling) are better described by a restructuring of the spectral bulk. We develop a toy model with extensive output channels that recapitulates this phenomenon and show that edge of the spectrum still converges for sufficiently wide networks.

Modern matrix completion problems often involve heterogeneous data whose rows simultaneously belong to many meta-categories, such as demographic and age groups in recommendation systems, or region and recording session labels in neural electrophysiological experiments. Standard low-rank estimators impose a single global latent geometry, which can recover average structure but may smooth away subgroup-specific variation, especially when observations are unevenly distributed across groups. We introduce Group-Aware Matrix Estimation (GAME), a convex estimator for overlapping subgroup-wise low-rank matrix estimation. GAME regularizes category-specific submatrices through overlapping nuclear-norm penalties, allowing related groups to borrow information while preserving local latent structure in a shared coordinate system. We provide finite-sample guarantees for both reconstruction error and subgroup-specific subspace recovery, showing how performance depends on sampling density, subgroup rank, and overlap structure. Experiments on synthetic, recommendation, ecological, and neuroscience datasets show that GAME is most beneficial in structured missingness regimes, where subgroup-aware regularization improves both reconstruction accuracy and latent subspace fidelity. Across these benchmarks, GAME is competitive or best among global low-rank, side-information, and modern imputation baselines, with the largest gains when subgroups exhibit distinct low-rank structure.

Large language models (LLMs) are pretrained by minimizing the cross-entropy loss for next-token prediction. In this paper, we study whether this optimization strategy can induce geometric structure in the learned model weights and context embeddings. We approach this problem by analyzing a constrained layer-peeled optimization program, which serves as a mathematically tractable surrogate for LLMs by treating the output projection matrix and last-layer context embeddings as optimization variables. Our analysis of this nonconvex optimization program demonstrates that symmetries in the target next-token distributions are transferred to the global minimizers of the layer-peeled model in a precise group-theoretic sense. Specifically, we prove that when the target tokens exhibit a cyclic-shift symmetry (such as the seven days of the week or the twelve months of the year), the optimal logit matrix is exactly circulant, and the Gram matrices of both the output projections and the context embeddings form circulant geometries as well. Next, for exchangeable target distributions invariant under the symmetric group and, more generally, under two-transitive group actions, we show that the global optimal output projection matrix forms a simplex equiangular tight frame, while the optimal logit matrix and context embeddings inherit the permutation symmetries present in the input data. A key technical step is to reduce the constrained nonconvex factorized problem to an explicit logit-level convex characterization for cyclic symmetry and to a symmetry-based lower bound for permutation symmetry, together with a sharp characterization of the optimal factorization. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that open-source LLMs naturally exhibit symmetries consistent with our theoretical predictions, despite being trained without any explicit regularization promoting such geometric structure.

The recent empirical success of the Muon optimizer has renewed interest in non-Euclidean optimization, typically justified by similarities with second-order methods, and linear minimization oracle (LMO) theory. In this paper, we challenge this geometric narrative through three contributions, demonstrating that precise geometric structure is not the key factor affecting optimization performance. First, we introduce Freon, a family of optimizers based on Schatten (quasi-)norms, powered by a novel, provably optimal QDWH-based iterative approximation. Freon naturally interpolates between SGD and Muon, while smoothly extrapolating into the quasi-norm regime. Empirically, the best-performing Schatten parameters for GPT-2 lie strictly within the quasi-norm regime, and thus cannot be represented by any unitarily invariant LMO. Second, noting that Freon performs well across a wide range of exponents, we introduce Kaon, an absurd optimizer that replaces singular values with random noise. Despite lacking any coherent geometric structure, Kaon matches Muon's performance and retains classical convergence guarantees, proving that strict adherence to a precise geometry is practically irrelevant. Third, having shown that geometry is not the primary driver of performance, we demonstrate it is instead controlled by two local quantities: alignment and descent potential. Ultimately, each optimizer must tune its step size around these two quantities. While their dynamics are difficult to predict a-priori, evaluating them within a stochastic random feature model yields a precise insight: Muon succeeds not by tracking an ideal global geometry, but by guaranteeing step-size optimality.

Large language models demonstrate remarkable ability in factual recall, yet the fundamental limits of storing and retrieving input--output associations with neural networks remain unclear. We study these limits in a minimal setting: a linear associative memory that maps $p$ input embeddings in $\mathbb{R}^d$ to their corresponding~$d$-dimensional targets via a single layer, requiring each mapped input to be well separated from all other targets. Unlike in supervised classification, this strict separation induces~$p$ constraints per association and produces strong correlations between constraints that make a direct characterisation of the storage capacity difficult. Here, we provide a precise characterisation of this capacity in the following way. We first introduce a decoupled model in which each input has its own independent set of competing outputs, and provide numerical and analytical evidence that this decoupled model is equivalent to the original model in terms of storage capacity, spectra of the learnt weights, and storage mechanism. Using tools from statistical physics, we show that the decoupled model can store up to $p_c \log p_c / d^2 = 1 / 2$ associations, and generalise the computation of $p_c$ to linear two-layer architectures. Our analysis also gives mechanistic insight into how the optimal solution improves over a naïve Hebbian learning rule: rather than boosting input-output alignments with broad fluctuations, the optimal solution raises the correct scores just above the extreme-value threshold set by the competing outputs. These findings give a sharp statistical-physics characterisation of factual storage in linear networks and provide a baseline for understanding the memory capacity of more realistic neural architectures.

We consider a novel algorithm, for the completion of partially observed low-rank tensors, as a generalization of matrix completion. The proposed low-rank tensor completion (TC) method builds on the conventional nuclear norm (NN) minimization-based low-rank TC paradigm, by leveraging the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) optimization framework. To that extend the original NN minimization problem is reformulated into multiple subproblems, which are then solved iteratively via closed-form proximal operators, making use of over-relaxation and an adaptive penalty parameter update scheme, to further speed up convergence and improve the overall performance of the method. Simulation results demonstrate the superior performance of the new method in terms of normalized mean square error (NMSE), compared to the conventional state-of-the-art (SotA) techniques, including NN minimization approaches, as well as a mixture of the latter with a matrix factorization approach, while its convergence can be significantly improved by initializing the algorithm with the solution of the SotA.