sigspatial
Building a Foundation Model for Trajectory from Scratch
Merten, Gaspard, Sakr, Mahmoud, Dejaegere, Gilles
Foundation models are transformative in artificial intelligence, but building them from scratch, especially for mobility trajectories, is not yet clear or documented. This tutorial bridges this gap by demonstrating the steps and code of a minimal implementation of a trajectory-focused foundation model starting from GPT-2. Through a concise, step-by-step, code-driven process, we demonstrate adapting GPT-2 for spatiotemporal data. We then review and compare representative trajectory foundation models, such as TrajFM and TrajGPT, highlighting their architectural innovations and differences. Additionally, we introduce complementary techniques from related domains, like TimesFM's patching approach. Targeted at researchers and practitioners, this tutorial aims to explain the concepts and terminology of foundation models, at the implementation level. We find it timely and indispensable to create this educational material in order to support the SIGSPATIAL community in building and evaluating mobility foundation models, enhancing both research clarity and peer-review effectiveness in mobility AI.
STOAT: Spatial-Temporal Probabilistic Causal Inference Network
Yang, Yang, Yin, Du, Xue, Hao, Salim, Flora
Spatial-temporal causal time series (STC-TS) involve region-specific temporal observations driven by causally relevant covariates and interconnected across geographic or network-based spaces. Existing methods often model spatial and temporal dynamics independently and overlook causality-driven probabilistic forecasting, limiting their predictive power. To address this, we propose STOAT (Spatial-Temporal Probabilistic Causal Inference Network), a novel framework for probabilistic forecasting in STC-TS. The proposed method extends a causal inference approach by incorporating a spatial relation matrix that encodes interregional dependencies (e.g. proximity or connectivity), enabling spatially informed causal effect estimation. The resulting latent series are processed by deep probabilistic models to estimate the parameters of the distributions, enabling calibrated uncertainty modeling. We further explore multiple output distributions (e.g., Gaussian, Student's-$t$, Laplace) to capture region-specific variability. Experiments on COVID-19 data across six countries demonstrate that STOAT outperforms state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting models (DeepAR, DeepVAR, Deep State Space Model, etc.) in key metrics, particularly in regions with strong spatial dependencies. By bridging causal inference and geospatial probabilistic forecasting, STOAT offers a generalizable framework for complex spatial-temporal tasks, such as epidemic management.
RailEstate: An Interactive System for Metro Linked Property Trends
Chang, Chen-Wei, Cheng, Yu-Chieh, Tsai, Yun-En, Chen, Fanglan, Lu, Chang-Tien
Access to metro systems plays a critical role in shaping urban housing markets by enhancing neighborhood accessibility and driving property demand. We present RailEstate, a novel web based system that integrates spatial analytics, natural language interfaces, and interactive forecasting to analyze how proximity to metro stations influences residential property prices in the Washington metropolitan area. Unlike static mapping tools or generic listing platforms, RailEstate combines 25 years of historical housing data with transit infrastructure to support low latency geospatial queries, time series visualizations, and predictive modeling. Users can interactively explore ZIP code level price patterns, investigate long term trends, and forecast future housing values around any metro station. A key innovation is our natural language chatbot, which translates plain-English questions e.g., What is the highest price in Falls Church in the year 2000? into executable SQL over a spatial database. This unified and interactive platform empowers urban planners, investors, and residents to derive actionable insights from metro linked housing data without requiring technical expertise.
MVeLMA: Multimodal Vegetation Loss Modeling Architecture for Predicting Post-fire Vegetation Loss
Ravi, Meenu, Sarkar, Shailik, Sun, Yanshen, Singh, Vaishnavi, Lu, Chang-Tien
Understanding post-wildfire vegetation loss is critical for developing effective ecological recovery strategies and is often challenging due to the extended time and effort required to capture the evolving ecosystem features. Recent works in this area have not fully explored all the contributing factors, their modalities, and interactions with each other. Furthermore, most research in this domain is limited by a lack of interpretability in predictive modeling, making it less useful in real-world settings. In this work, we propose a novel end-to-end ML pipeline called MVeLMA (\textbf{M}ultimodal \textbf{Ve}getation \textbf{L}oss \textbf{M}odeling \textbf{A}rchitecture) to predict county-wise vegetation loss from fire events. MVeLMA uses a multimodal feature integration pipeline and a stacked ensemble-based architecture to capture different modalities while also incorporating uncertainty estimation through probabilistic modeling. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that our model outperforms several state-of-the-art (SOTA) and baseline models in predicting post-wildfire vegetation loss. Furthermore, we generate vegetation loss confidence maps to identify high-risk counties, thereby helping targeted recovery efforts. The findings of this work have the potential to inform future disaster relief planning, ecological policy development, and wildlife recovery management.
Geo-Aware Models for Stream Temperature Prediction across Different Spatial Regions and Scales
Luo, Shiyuan, Yu, Runlong, Chen, Shengyu, Fan, Yingda, Xie, Yiqun, Li, Yanhua, Jia, Xiaowei
Understanding environmental ecosystems is vital for the sustainable management of our planet. However,existing physics-based and data-driven models often fail to generalize to varying spatial regions and scales due to the inherent data heterogeneity presented in real environmental ecosystems. This generalization issue is further exacerbated by the limited observation samples available for model training. To address these issues, we propose Geo-STARS, a geo-aware spatio-temporal modeling framework for predicting stream water temperature across different watersheds and spatial scales. The major innovation of Geo-STARS is the introduction of geo-aware embedding, which leverages geographic information to explicitly capture shared principles and patterns across spatial regions and scales. We further integrate the geo-aware embedding into a gated spatio-temporal graph neural network. This design enables the model to learn complex spatial and temporal patterns guided by geographic and hydrological context, even with sparse or no observational data. We evaluate Geo-STARS's efficacy in predicting stream water temperature, which is a master factor for water quality. Using real-world datasets spanning 37 years across multiple watersheds along the eastern coast of the United States, Geo-STARS demonstrates its superior generalization performance across both regions and scales, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. These results highlight the promise of Geo-STARS for scalable, data-efficient environmental monitoring and decision-making.
Detecting Legend Items on Historical Maps Using GPT-4o with In-Context Learning
Kirsanova, Sofia, Chiang, Yao-Yi, Duan, Weiwei
Historical map legends are critical for interpreting cartographic symbols. However, their inconsistent layouts and unstructured formats make automatic extraction challenging. Prior work focuses primarily on segmentation or general optical character recognition (OCR), with few methods effectively matching legend symbols to their corresponding descriptions in a structured manner. We present a method that combines LayoutLMv3 for layout detection with GPT-4o using in-context learning to detect and link legend items and their descriptions via bounding box predictions. Our experiments show that GPT-4 with structured JSON prompts outperforms the baseline, achieving 88% F-1 and 85% IoU, and reveal how prompt design, example counts, and layout alignment affect performance. This approach supports scalable, layout-aware legend parsing and improves the indexing and searchability of historical maps across various visual styles.
Graph Enhanced Trajectory Anomaly Detection
Mbuya, Jonathan Kabala, Pfoser, Dieter, Anastasopoulos, Antonios
Trajectory anomaly detection is essential for identifying unusual and unexpected movement patterns in applications ranging from intelligent transportation systems to urban safety and fraud prevention. Existing methods only consider limited aspects of the trajectory nature and its movement space by treating trajectories as sequences of sampled locations, with sampling determined by positioning technology, e.g., GPS, or by high-level abstractions such as staypoints. Trajectories are analyzed in Euclidean space, neglecting the constraints and connectivity information of the underlying movement network, e.g., road or transit networks. The proposed Graph Enhanced Trajectory Anomaly Detection (GETAD) framework tightly integrates road network topology, segment semantics, and historical travel patterns to model trajectory data. GETAD uses a Graph Attention Network to learn road-aware embeddings that capture both physical attributes and transition behavior, and augments these with graph-based positional encodings that reflect the spatial layout of the road network. A Transformer-based decoder models sequential movement, while a multiobjective loss function combining autoregressive prediction and supervised link prediction ensures realistic and structurally coherent representations. To improve the robustness of anomaly detection, we introduce Confidence Weighted Negative Log Likelihood (CW NLL), an anomaly scoring function that emphasizes high-confidence deviations. Experiments on real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that GETAD achieves consistent improvements over existing methods, particularly in detecting subtle anomalies in road-constrained environments. These results highlight the benefits of incorporating graph structure and contextual semantics into trajectory modeling, enabling more precise and context-aware anomaly detection.
A Probabilistic Framework for Imputing Genetic Distances in Spatiotemporal Pathogen Models
Stone, Haley, Du, Jing, Xue, Hao, Scotch, Matthew, Heslop, David, Zรผfle, Andreas, MacIntyre, Chandini Raina, Salim, Flora
Pathogen genome data offers valuable structure for spatial models, but its utility is limited by incomplete sequencing coverage. We propose a probabilistic framework for inferring genetic distances between unsequenced cases and known sequences within defined transmission chains, using time-aware evolutionary distance modeling. The method estimates pairwise divergence from collection dates and observed genetic distances, enabling biologically plausible imputation grounded in observed divergence patterns, without requiring sequence alignment or known transmission chains. Applied to highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5 cases in wild birds in the United States, this approach supports scalable, uncertainty-aware augmentation of genomic datasets and enhances the integration of evolutionary information into spatiotemporal modeling workflows.
UQGNN: Uncertainty Quantification of Graph Neural Networks for Multivariate Spatiotemporal Prediction
Yu, Dahai, Zhuang, Dingyi, Jiang, Lin, Xu, Rongchao, Ye, Xinyue, Bu, Yuheng, Wang, Shenhao, Wang, Guang
Spatiotemporal prediction plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications such as urban planning, transportation optimization, disaster response, and pandemic control. In recent years, researchers have made significant progress by developing advanced deep learning models for spatiotemporal prediction. However, most existing models are deterministic, i.e., predicting only the expected mean values without quantifying uncertainty, leading to potentially unreliable and inaccurate outcomes. While recent studies have introduced probabilistic models to quantify uncertainty, they typically focus on a single phenomenon (e.g., taxi, bike, crime, or traffic crashes), thereby neglecting the inherent correlations among heterogeneous urban phenomena. To address the research gap, we propose a novel Graph Neural Network with Uncertainty Quantification, termed UQGNN for multivariate spatiotemporal prediction. UQGNN introduces two key innovations: (i) an Interaction-aware Spatiotemporal Embedding Module that integrates a multivariate diffusion graph convolutional network and an interaction-aware temporal convolutional network to effectively capture complex spatial and temporal interaction patterns, and (ii) a multivariate probabilistic prediction module designed to estimate both expected mean values and associated uncertainties. Extensive experiments on four real-world multivariate spatiotemporal datasets from Shenzhen, New York City, and Chicago demonstrate that UQGNN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification. For example, on the Shenzhen dataset, UQGNN achieves a 5% improvement in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
MuST2-Learn: Multi-view Spatial-Temporal-Type Learning for Heterogeneous Municipal Service Time Estimation
Asif, Nadia, Hong, Zhiqing, Ren, Shaogang, Zhang, Xiaonan, Shang, Xiaojun, Yuan, Yukun
Non-emergency municipal services such as city 311 systems have been widely implemented across cities in Canada and the United States to enhance residents' quality of life. These systems enable residents to report issues, e.g., noise complaints, missed garbage collection, and potholes, via phone calls, mobile applications, or webpages. However, residents are often given limited information about when their service requests will be addressed, which can reduce transparency, lower resident satisfaction, and increase the number of follow-up inquiries. Predicting the service time for municipal service requests is challenging due to several complex factors: dynamic spatial-temporal correlations, underlying interactions among heterogeneous service request types, and high variation in service duration even within the same request category. In this work, we propose MuST2-Learn: a Multi-view Spatial-Temporal-Type Learning framework designed to address the aforementioned challenges by jointly modeling spatial, temporal, and service type dimensions. In detail, it incorporates an inter-type encoder to capture relationships among heterogeneous service request types and an intra-type variation encoder to model service time variation within homogeneous types. In addition, a spatiotemporal encoder is integrated to capture spatial and temporal correlations in each request type. The proposed framework is evaluated with extensive experiments using two real-world datasets. The results show that MuST2-Learn reduces mean absolute error by at least 32.5%, which outperforms state-of-the-art methods.