Large language model (LLM) watermarks enable authentication of text provenance, curb misuse of machine-generated text, and promote trust in AI systems. Current watermarks operate by changing the next-token predictions output by an LLM. The updated (i.e., watermarked) predictions depend on random side information produced, for example, by hashing previously generated tokens. LLM watermarking is particularly challenging when next-token predictions are near-deterministic. In fact, over 90% of next-token distributions are low-entropy, with more than half of the probability mass on a single token.

Online portfolio selection seeks to determine a sequence of allocations to maximize capital growth. Classical universal strategies asymptotically match the best constant-rebalanced portfolio but ignore potential forecasts, whereas heuristic methods often collapse when belief fails. We formalize this tension in a learningaugmented setting in which an investor observes (possibly erroneous) predictions prior to each decision moment, and we introduce the Rebalanced Arithmetic Mean portfolio with predictions (RAM). Under arbitrary return sequences, we prove that RAM captures at least a constant fraction of the hindsight-optimal wealth when forecasts are perfect while still exceeding the geometric mean of the sequence even when the predictions are adversarial. Comprehensive experiments on largescale equity data strengthen our theory, spanning both synthetic prediction streams and production-grade machine-learning models. RAM advantages over universalportfolio variants equipped with side information across various regimes. These results demonstrate that modest predictive power can be reliably converted into tangible gains without sacrificing worst-case guarantees.

Matrix factorization is a fundamental method in statistics and machine learning for inferring and summarizing structure in multivariate data. Modern data sets often come with "side information" of various forms (images, text, graphs) that can be leveraged to improve estimation of the underlying structure. However, existing methods that leverage side information are limited in the types of data they can incorporate, and they assume specific parametric models. Here, we introduce a novel method for this problem, covariate-moderated empirical Bayes matrix factorization (cEBMF).

We study a relaxation of the problem of coupling probability distributions -- a list of samples is generated from one distribution and an accept is declared if any one of these samples is identical to the sample generated from the other distribution. We propose a novel method for generating samples, which extends the Gumbelmax sampling suggested in Daliri et al. [9] for coupling probability distributions. We also establish a corresponding lower bound on the acceptance probability, which we call the list matching lemma. We next discuss two applications of our setup. First, we develop a new mechanism for multi-draft speculative sampling that is simple to implement and achieves performance competitive with baselines such as SpecTr [38] and SpecInfer [34] across a range of language tasks. Our method also guarantees a certain degree of drafter invariance with respect to the output tokens which is not supported by existing schemes. We also provide a theoretical lower bound on the token level acceptance probability. As our second application, we consider distributed lossy compression with side information in a setting where a source sample is compressed and available to multiple decoders, each with independent side information. We propose a compression technique that is based on our generalization of Gumbel-max sampling and show that it provides significant gains in experiments involving synthetic Gaussian sources and the MNIST image dataset.

Matrix factorization is a fundamental method in statistics and machine learning for inferring and summarizing structure in multivariate data. Modern data sets often come with side information of various forms (images, text, graphs) that can be leveraged to improve estimation of the underlying structure. However, existing methods that leverage side information are limited in the types of data they can incorporate, and they assume specific parametric models. Here, we introduce a novel method for this problem, (cEBMF).

This paper addresses structured out-of-distribution (OOD) testing in high-stakes machine learning applications. Traditional conformal methods rely on joint exchangeability, making it difficult to incorporate auxiliary information such as spatiotemporal or grouping structures. To overcome this limitation, we propose the structure-adaptive conformal q-value (SCQ), a significance index that integrates individual test evidence with structural patterns. We also develop pseudo-score-guided transductive automated model selection (P-TAMS), which adapts conformalized model selection to structured OOD testing across a toolbox of candidate models. Together, SCQ and P-TAMS form a unified framework under pairwise exchangeability, providing finite-sample error-rate control, improved power, and enhanced interpretability. Experiments on simulated and real data demonstrate that the proposed approach controls the false discovery rate and performs well across diverse settings.

Modern matrix completion problems often involve heterogeneous data whose rows simultaneously belong to many meta-categories, such as demographic and age groups in recommendation systems, or region and recording session labels in neural electrophysiological experiments. Standard low-rank estimators impose a single global latent geometry, which can recover average structure but may smooth away subgroup-specific variation, especially when observations are unevenly distributed across groups. We introduce Group-Aware Matrix Estimation (GAME), a convex estimator for overlapping subgroup-wise low-rank matrix estimation. GAME regularizes category-specific submatrices through overlapping nuclear-norm penalties, allowing related groups to borrow information while preserving local latent structure in a shared coordinate system. We provide finite-sample guarantees for both reconstruction error and subgroup-specific subspace recovery, showing how performance depends on sampling density, subgroup rank, and overlap structure. Experiments on synthetic, recommendation, ecological, and neuroscience datasets show that GAME is most beneficial in structured missingness regimes, where subgroup-aware regularization improves both reconstruction accuracy and latent subspace fidelity. Across these benchmarks, GAME is competitive or best among global low-rank, side-information, and modern imputation baselines, with the largest gains when subgroups exhibit distinct low-rank structure.

Low-rank matrix completion is a widely studied problem with many variants. Inductive matrix completion (IMC) incorporates row and column side information to significantly narrow the search space. Prior work falls into two regimes: methods that exploit this structure to achieve reduced sample complexity but only in noiseless settings, and methods that handle noise but require sample complexity matching the ambient matrix dimension, forfeiting the sample efficiency that side information should provide. In this paper, we close this gap by studying noisy IMC with a nonconvex projected gradient descent algorithm with spectral initialization. Our main technical contribution is establishing a regularity condition for the IMC loss function that holds at the reduced sample complexity determined by the effective problem size, scaling with the side information dimension a rather than the ambient dimension n. This directly yields linear convergence and an estimation error that both depend only on the effective problem size rather than the ambient matrix dimension. We further extend our analysis to the inexact side information setting, demonstrating that the reduced sample complexity is maintained and the estimation error is order-optimal with respect to the inexactness of the side information. Extensive simulations and real-world experiments on the MovieLens dataset validate our theoretical findings.