Causal sensitivity analysis aims to provide bounds for causal effect estimates in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, existing methods for causal sensitivity analysis are per-instance procedures, meaning that changes to the dataset, causal query, sensitivity level, or treatment require new computation. Here, we instead present an in-context learning approach. Specifically, we propose an amortized approach to causal sensitivity analysis based on prior-data fitted networks. A key challenge is that the sensitivity bounds are not directly available when sampling training data. To address this, we develop a general prior-data construction that is applicable across the class of generalized treatment sensitivity models. Our construction involves a Lagrangian scalarization of the objective to generate training labels for the bounds through a tradeoff between causal effect min/max-imization and sensitivity model violation, which avoids model-specific analytical derivations. We further show that, under standard convexity and linearity conditions, our objective recovers the full Pareto frontier of solutions. Empirically, we demonstrate our amortized approach across various datasets, causal queries, and sensitivity levels, where our approach achieves a test-time computation that is orders of magnitude faster than per-instance methods. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first foundation model for in-context learning for causal sensitivity analysis.

This paper presents a new efficient black-box attribution method built on HilbertSchmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC). Based on Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS), HSIC measures the dependence between regions of an input image and the output of a model using the kernel embedding of their distributions. It thus provides explanations enriched by RKHS representation capabilities. HSIC can be estimated very efficiently, significantly reducing the computational cost compared to other black-box attribution methods. Our experiments show that HSIC is up to 8 times faster than the previous best black-box attribution methods while being as faithful. Indeed, we improve or match the state-of-the-art of both black-box and white-box attribution methods for several fidelity metrics on Imagenet with various recent model architectures. Importantly, we show that these advances can be transposed to efficiently and faithfully explain object detection models such as YOLOv4. Finally, we extend the traditional attribution methods by proposing a new kernel enabling an ANOVA-like orthogonal decomposition of importance scores based on HSIC, allowing us to evaluate not only the importance of each image patch but also the importance of their pairwise interactions.

In uncertainty quantification, evaluating sensitivity measures under specific conditions (i.e., conditional Sobol' indices) is essential for systems with parameterized responses, such as spatial fields or varying operating conditions. Traditional approaches often rely on point-wise modeling, which is computationally expensive and may lack consistency across the parameter space. This paper demonstrates that for a pre-trained global Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) model, the analytical conditional Sobol' indices are inherently embedded within its basis functions. By leveraging the tensor-product property of PCE bases, we reformulate the global expansion into a set of analytical coefficient fields that depend on the conditioning variables. Based on the preservation of orthogonality under conditional probability measures, we derive closed-form expressions for conditional variances and Sobol' indices. This framework bypasses the need for repetitive modeling or additional sampling, transforming conditional sensitivity analysis into a purely algebraic post-processing step. Numerical benchmarks indicate that the proposed method ensures physical coherence and offers superior numerical robustness and computational efficiency compared to conventional point-wise approaches.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Fairness metrics are a core tool in the fair machine learning literature (FairML),used to determine that ML models are, in some sense, "fair." Real-world data,however, are typically plagued by various measurement biases and other violatedassumptions, which can render fairness assessments meaningless. We adapt toolsfrom causal sensitivity analysis to the FairML context, providing a general frame-work which (1) accommodates effectively any combination of fairness metric andbias that can be posed in the "oblivious setting"; (2) allows researchers to inves-tigate combinations of biases, resulting in non-linear sensitivity; and (3) enablesflexible encoding of domain-specific constraints and assumptions. Employing thisframework, we analyze the sensitivity of the most common parity metrics under 3varieties of classifier across 14 canonical fairness datasets. Our analysis reveals thestriking fragility of fairness assessments to even minor dataset biases. We show thatcausal sensitivity analysis provides a powerful and necessary toolkit for gaugingthe informativeness of parity metric evaluations.

We consider the problem of active learning for global sensitivity analysis of expensive black-box functions. Our aim is to efficiently learn the importance of different input variables, e.g., in vehicle safety experimentation, we study the impact of the thickness of various components on safety objectives. Since function evaluations are expensive, we use active learning to prioritize experimental resources where they yield the most value. We propose novel active learning acquisition functions that directly target key quantities of derivative-based global sensitivity measures (DGSMs) under Gaussian process surrogate models.We showcase the first application of active learning directly to DGSMs, and develop tractable uncertainty reduction and information gain acquisition functions for these measures. Through comprehensive evaluation on synthetic and real-world problems, our study demonstrates how these active learning acquisition strategies substantially enhance the sample efficiency of DGSM estimation, particularly with limited evaluation budgets. Our work paves the way for more efficient and accurate sensitivity analysis in various scientific and engineering applications.