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Function-Valued Causal Influence in Nonlinear Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Causal discovery in time series is increasingly performed using nonlinear machine-learning models, yet the resulting causal relationships are almost always summarized by scalar edge scores. We argue that this practice obscures the true object learned by nonlinear autoregressive models: a state-dependent function whose effect varies across regimes, magnitudes, and contexts. We formalize function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures and show that scalar causal scores constitute a severe information bottleneck, conflating between-state variation with within-state residual noise. Using Neural Additive Vector Autoregression as a representative architecture, we introduce a practical framework based on Individual Conditional Expectation for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models. Through controlled synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors, including monotonic, thresholded, saturating, and sign-changing effects. An applied case study on democratic development further shows that function-valued analysis reveals regime-specific and asymmetric causal structure systematically missed by score-centric approaches.


SCALAR: Benchmarking SAE Interaction Sparsity in Toy LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mechanistic interpretability aims to decompose neural networks into interpretable features and map their connecting circuits. The standard approach trains sparse autoencoders (SAEs) on each layer's activations. However, SAEs trained in isolation don't encourage sparse cross-layer connections, inflating extracted circuits where upstream features needlessly affect multiple downstream features. Current evaluations focus on individual SAE performance, leaving interaction sparsity unexamined. We introduce SCALAR (Sparse Connectivity Assessment of Latent Activation Relationships), a benchmark measuring interaction sparsity between SAE features. We also propose "Staircase SAEs", using weight-sharing to limit upstream feature duplication across downstream features. Using SCALAR, we compare TopK SAEs, Jacobian SAEs (JSAEs), and Staircase SAEs. Staircase SAEs improve relative sparsity over TopK SAEs by $59.67\% \pm 1.83\%$ (feedforward) and $63.15\% \pm 1.35\%$ (transformer blocks). JSAEs provide $8.54\% \pm 0.38\%$ improvement over TopK for feedforward layers but cannot train effectively across transformer blocks, unlike Staircase and TopK SAEs which work anywhere in the residual stream. We validate on a $216$K-parameter toy model and GPT-$2$ Small ($124$M), where Staircase SAEs maintain interaction sparsity improvements while preserving feature interpretability. Our work highlights the importance of interaction sparsity in SAEs through benchmarking and comparing promising architectures.