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CauSTream: Causal Spatio-Temporal Representation Learning for Streamflow Forecasting

Wan, Shu, Shah, Reepal, Sabo, John, Liu, Huan, Candan, K. Selçuk

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Streamflow forecasting is crucial for water resource management and risk mitigation. While deep learning models have achieved strong predictive performance, they often overlook underlying physical processes, limiting interpretability and generalization. Recent causal learning approaches address these issues by integrating domain knowledge, yet they typically rely on fixed causal graphs that fail to adapt to data. We propose CauStream, a unified framework for causal spatiotemporal streamflow forecasting. CauSTream jointly learns (i) a runoff causal graph among meteorological forcings and (ii) a routing graph capturing dynamic dependencies across stations. We further establish identifiability conditions for these causal structures under a nonparametric setting. We evaluate CauSTream on three major U.S. river basins across three forecasting horizons. The model consistently outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods, with performance gaps widening at longer forecast windows, indicating stronger generalization to unseen conditions. Beyond forecasting, CauSTream also learns causal graphs that capture relationships among hydrological factors and stations. The inferred structures align closely with established domain knowledge, offering interpretable insights into watershed dynamics. CauSTream offers a principled foundation for causal spatiotemporal modeling, with the potential to extend to a wide range of scientific and environmental applications.


CoTAL: Human-in-the-Loop Prompt Engineering for Generalizable Formative Assessment Scoring

Cohn, Clayton, S, Ashwin T, Mohammed, Naveeduddin, Biswas, Gautam

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) have created new opportunities to assist teachers and support student learning. While researchers have explored various prompt engineering approaches in educational contexts, the degree to which these approaches generalize across domains--such as science, computing, and engineering--remains underexplored. In this paper, we introduce Chain-of-Thought Prompting + Active Learning (CoTAL), an LLM-based approach to formative assessment scoring that (1) leverages Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) to align assessments and rubrics with curriculum goals, (2) applies human-in-the-loop prompt engineering to automate response scoring, and (3) incorporates chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting and teacher and student feedback to iteratively refine questions, rubrics, and LLM prompts. Our findings demonstrate that CoTAL improves GPT-4's scoring performance across domains, achieving gains of up to 38.9% over a non-prompt-engineered baseline (i.e., without labeled examples, chain-of-thought prompting, or iterative refinement). Teachers and students judge CoTAL to be effective at scoring and explaining responses, and their feedback produces valuable insights that enhance grading accuracy and explanation quality.


Identifying Trustworthiness Challenges in Deep Learning Models for Continental-Scale Water Quality Prediction

Xia, Xiaobo, Liu, Xiaofeng, Liu, Jiale, Fang, Kuai, Lu, Lu, Oymak, Samet, Currie, William S., Liu, Tongliang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Water quality is foundational to environmental sustainability, ecosystem resilience, and public health. Deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, offer transformative potential for large-scale water quality prediction and scientific insights generation. However, their widespread adoption in high-stakes decision-making, such as pollution mitigation and equitable resource allocation, is prevented by unresolved trustworthiness challenges including fairness, uncertainty, interpretability, robustness, generalizability, and reproducibility. In this work, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of trustworthiness in a continental-scale multi-task LSTM model predicting 20 water quality variables (encompassing physical/chemical processes, geochemical weathering, and nutrient cycling) across 482 U.S. basins. Our investigation uncovers systematic patterns of model performance disparities linked to basin characteristics, the inherent complexity of biogeochemical processes, and variable predictability, emphasizing critical performance fairness concerns. We further propose methodological frameworks for quantitatively evaluating critical aspects of trustworthiness, including uncertainty, interpretability, and robustness, identifying key limitations that could challenge reliable real-world deployment. This work serves as a timely call to action for advancing trustworthy data-driven methods for water resources management and provides a pathway to offering critical insights for researchers, decision-makers, and practitioners seeking to leverage artificial intelligence (AI) responsibly in environmental management.


Multi-Objective Optimization of Water Resource Allocation for Groundwater Recharge and Surface Runoff Management in Watershed Systems

Sharifi, Abbas, Naeini, Hajar Kazemi, Ahmadi, Mohsen, Asadi, Saeed, Varmaghani, Abbas

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Land degradation and air pollution are primarily caused by the salinization of soil and desertification that occurs from the drying of salinity lakes and the release of dust into the atmosphere because of their dried bottom. The complete drying up of a lake has caused a community environmental catastrophe. In this study, we presented an optimization problem to determine the total surface runoff to maintain the level of salinity lake (Urmia Lake). The proposed process has two key stages: identifying the influential factors in determining the lake water level using sensitivity analysis approaches based upon historical data and optimizing the effective variable to stabilize the lake water level under changing design variables. Based upon the Sobol'-Jansen and Morris techniques, the groundwater level and total surface runoff flow are highly effective with nonlinear and interacting impacts of the lake water level. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, we found that it may be possible to effectively manage lake levels by adjusting total surface runoff. We used genetic algorithms, non-linear optimization, and pattern search techniques to solve the optimization problem. Furthermore, the lake level constraint is established based on a pattern as a constant number every month. In order to maintain a consistent pattern of lake levels, it is necessary to increase surface runoff by approximately 8.7 times during filling season. It is necessary to increase this quantity by 33.5 times during the draining season. In the future, the results may serve as a guide for the rehabilitation of the lake.


Spatio-temporal Causal Learning for Streamflow Forecasting

Wan, Shu, Shah, Reepal, Deng, Qi, Sabo, John, Liu, Huan, Selçuk, K.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Streamflow plays an essential role in the sustainable planning and management of national water resources. Traditional hydrologic modeling approaches simulate streamflow by establishing connections across multiple physical processes, such as rainfall and runoff. These data, inherently connected both spatially and temporally, possess intrinsic causal relations that can be leveraged for robust and accurate forecasting. Recently, spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have been adopted, excelling in various domains, such as urban traffic management, weather forecasting, and pandemic control, and they also promise advances in streamflow management. However, learning causal relationships directly from vast observational data is theoretically and computationally challenging. In this study, we employ a river flow graph as prior knowledge to facilitate the learning of the causal structure and then use the learned causal graph to predict streamflow at targeted sites. The proposed model, Causal Streamflow Forecasting (CSF) is tested in a real-world study in the Brazos River basin in Texas. Our results demonstrate that our method outperforms regular spatio-temporal graph neural networks and achieves higher computational efficiency compared to traditional simulation methods. By effectively integrating river flow graphs with STGNNs, this research offers a novel approach to streamflow prediction, showcasing the potential of combining advanced neural network techniques with domain-specific knowledge for enhanced performance in hydrologic modeling.


Reinforcement Learning for Sociohydrology

Roy, Tirthankar, Srivastava, Shivendra, Zhang, Beichen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this study, we discuss how reinforcement learning (RL) provides an effective and efficient framework for solving sociohydrology problems. The efficacy of RL for these types of problems is evident because of its ability to update policies in an iterative manner - something that is also foundational to sociohydrology, where we are interested in representing the co-evolution of human-water interactions. We present a simple case study to demonstrate the implementation of RL in a problem of runoff reduction through management decisions related to changes in land-use land-cover (LULC). We then discuss the benefits of RL for these types of problems and share our perspectives on the future research directions in this area.


Toward Routing River Water in Land Surface Models with Recurrent Neural Networks

Lima, Mauricio, Deck, Katherine, Dunbar, Oliver R. A., Schneider, Tapio

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning is playing an increasing role in hydrology, supplementing or replacing physics-based models. One notable example is the use of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for forecasting streamflow given observed precipitation and geographic characteristics. Training of such a model over the continental United States has demonstrated that a single set of model parameters can be used across independent catchments, and that RNNs can outperform physics-based models. In this work, we take a next step and study the performance of RNNs for river routing in land surface models (LSMs). Instead of observed precipitation, the LSM-RNN uses instantaneous runoff calculated from physics-based models as an input. We train the model with data from river basins spanning the globe and test it in streamflow hindcasts. The model demonstrates skill at generalization across basins (predicting streamflow in unseen catchments) and across time (predicting streamflow during years not used in training). We compare the predictions from the LSM-RNN to an existing physics-based model calibrated with a similar dataset and find that the LSM-RNN outperforms the physics-based model. Our results give further evidence that RNNs are effective for global streamflow prediction from runoff inputs and motivate the development of complete routing models that can capture nested sub-basis connections.


Precise Robotic Weed Spot-Spraying for Reduced Herbicide Usage and Improved Environmental Outcomes -- A Real-World Case Study

Azghadi, Mostafa Rahimi, Olsen, Alex, Wood, Jake, Saleh, Alzayat, Calvert, Brendan, Granshaw, Terry, Fillols, Emilie, Philippa, Bronson

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Precise robotic weed control plays an essential role in precision agriculture. It can help significantly reduce the environmental impact of herbicides while reducing weed management costs for farmers. In this paper, we demonstrate that a custom-designed robotic spot spraying tool based on computer vision and deep learning can significantly reduce herbicide usage on sugarcane farms. We present results from field trials that compare robotic spot spraying against industry-standard broadcast spraying, by measuring the weed control efficacy, the reduction in herbicide usage, and the water quality improvements in irrigation runoff. The average results across 25 hectares of field trials show that spot spraying on sugarcane farms is 97% as effective as broadcast spraying and reduces herbicide usage by 35%, proportionally to the weed density. For specific trial strips with lower weed pressure, spot spraying reduced herbicide usage by up to 65%. Water quality measurements of irrigation-induced runoff, three to six days after spraying, showed reductions in the mean concentration and mean load of herbicides of 39% and 54%, respectively, compared to broadcast spraying. These promising results reveal the capability of spot spraying technology to reduce herbicide usage on sugarcane farms without impacting weed control and potentially providing sustained water quality benefits.


Differentiable, learnable, regionalized process-based models with physical outputs can approach state-of-the-art hydrologic prediction accuracy

Feng, Dapeng, Liu, Jiangtao, Lawson, Kathryn, Shen, Chaopeng

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predictions of hydrologic variables across the entire water cycle have significant value for water resource management as well as downstream applications such as ecosystem and water quality modeling. Recently, purely data-driven deep learning models like long short-term memory (LSTM) showed seemingly-insurmountable performance in modeling rainfall-runoff and other geoscientific variables, yet they cannot predict untrained physical variables and remain challenging to interpret. Here we show that differentiable, learnable, process-based models (called {\delta} models here) can approach the performance level of LSTM for the intensively-observed variable (streamflow) with regionalized parameterization. We use a simple hydrologic model HBV as the backbone and use embedded neural networks, which can only be trained in a differentiable programming framework, to parameterize, enhance, or replace the process-based model modules. Without using an ensemble or post-processor, {\delta} models can obtain a median Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.732 for 671 basins across the USA for the Daymet forcing dataset, compared to 0.748 from a state-of-the-art LSTM model with the same setup. For another forcing dataset, the difference is even smaller: 0.715 vs. 0.722. Meanwhile, the resulting learnable process-based models can output a full set of untrained variables, e.g., soil and groundwater storage, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and baseflow, and later be constrained by their observations. Both simulated evapotranspiration and fraction of discharge from baseflow agreed decently with alternative estimates. The general framework can work with models with various process complexity and opens up the path for learning physics from big data.


On the Use of Dimension Reduction or Signal Separation Methods for Nitrogen River Pollution Source Identification

Hatipoğlu, Güray

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Identification of the current and expected future pollution sources to rivers is crucial for sound environmental management. For this purpose numerous approaches were proposed that can be clustered under physical based models, stable isotope analysis and mixing methods, mass balance methods, time series analysis, land cover analysis, and spatial statistics. Another extremely common method is Principal Component Analysis, as well as its modifications, such as Absolute Principal Component Score. they have been applied to the source identification problems for nitrogen entry to rivers. This manuscript is checking whether PCA can really be a powerful method to uncover nitrogen pollution sources considering its theoretical background and assumptions. Moreover, slightly similar techniques, Independent Component Analysis and Factor Analysis will also be considered.