As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale--particularly in online domains--there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansion, a considerably weaker assumption than Luce's choice axiom. We show that the PCMC model significantly outperforms both the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model and a mixed MNL (MMNL) model in prediction tasks on both synthetic and empirical datasets known to exhibit violations of Luce's axiom. Our analysis also synthesizes several recent observations connecting the Multinomial Logit model and Markov chains; the PCMC model retains the Multinomial Logit model as a special case.

Interestingly, most of these works are either not applicable to, or have not been tested on, node-level tasks.

Based on the upper bound, we obtain new algorithms for approximate RUM learning and variations thereof.

Robot models, particularly those trained with large amounts of data, have recently shown a plethora of real-world manipulation and navigation capabilities. Several independent efforts have shown that given sufficient training data in an environment, robot policies can generalize to demonstrated variations in that environment. However, needing to finetune robot models to every new environment stands in stark contrast to models in language or vision that can be deployed zero-shot for open-world problems. In this work, we present Robot Utility Models (RUMs), a framework for training and deploying zero-shot robot policies that can directly generalize to new environments without any finetuning. To create RUMs efficiently, we develop new tools to quickly collect data for mobile manipulation tasks, integrate such data into a policy with multi-modal imitation learning, and deploy policies on-device on Hello Robot Stretch, a cheap commodity robot, with an external mLLM verifier for retrying. We train five such utility models for opening cabinet doors, opening drawers, picking up napkins, picking up paper bags, and reorienting fallen objects. Our system, on average, achieves 90% success rate in unseen, novel environments interacting with unseen objects. Moreover, the utility models can also succeed in different robot and camera set-ups with no further data, training, or fine-tuning. Primary among our lessons are the importance of training data over training algorithm and policy class, guidance about data scaling, necessity for diverse yet high-quality demonstrations, and a recipe for robot introspection and retrying to improve performance on individual environments. Our code, data, models, hardware designs, as well as our experiment and deployment videos are open sourced and can be found on our project website: https://robotutilitymodels.com

Rethink convolution-based graph neural networks (GNN) -- they characteristically suffer from limited expressiveness, over-smoothing, and over-squashing, and require specialized sparse kernels for efficient computation. Here, we design a simple graph learning module entirely free of convolution operators, coined random walk with unifying memory (RUM) neural network, where an RNN merges the topological and semantic graph features along the random walks terminating at each node. Relating the rich literature on RNN behavior and graph topology, we theoretically show and experimentally verify that RUM attenuates the aforementioned symptoms and is more expressive than the Weisfeiler-Lehman (WL) isomorphism test. On a variety of node- and graph-level classification and regression tasks, RUM not only achieves competitive performance, but is also robust, memory-efficient, scalable, and faster than the simplest convolutional GNNs.

A special case that has received significant attention is the Plackett-Luce model, for which fast inference methods for maximum likelihood estimators are available. This paper develops conditions on general random utility models that enable fast inference within a Bayesian framework through MC-EM, providing concave loglikelihood functions and bounded sets of global maxima solutions. Results on both real-world and simulated data provide support for the scalability of the approach and capability for model selection among general random utility models including Plackett-Luce.

Given data on the choices made by consumers for different offer sets, a key challenge is to develop parsimonious models that describe and predict consumer choice behavior while being amenable to prescriptive tasks such as pricing and assortment optimization. The marginal distribution model (MDM) is one such model, that requires only the specification of marginal distributions of the random utilities. This paper aims to establish necessary and sufficient conditions for given choice data to be consistent with the MDM hypothesis, inspired by the utility of similar characterizations for the random utility model (RUM). This endeavor leads to an exact characterization of the set of choice probabilities that the MDM can represent. Verifying the consistency of choice data with this characterization is equivalent to solving a polynomial-sized linear program. Since the analogous verification task for RUM is computationally intractable and neither of these models subsumes the other, MDM is helpful in striking a balance between tractability and representational power. The characterization is convenient to be used with robust optimization for making data-driven sales and revenue predictions for new unseen assortments. When the choice data lacks consistency with the MDM hypothesis, finding the best-fitting MDM choice probabilities reduces to solving a mixed integer convex program. The results extend naturally to the case where the alternatives can be grouped based on the similarity of the marginal distributions of the utilities. Numerical experiments show that MDM provides better representational power and prediction accuracy than multinominal logit and significantly better computational performance than RUM.

In this work we consider the problem of fitting Random Utility Models (RUMs) to user choices. Given the winner distributions of the subsets of size $k$ of a universe, we obtain a polynomial-time algorithm that finds the RUM that best approximates the given distribution on average. Our algorithm is based on a linear program that we solve using the ellipsoid method. Given that its corresponding separation oracle problem is NP-hard, we devise an approximate separation oracle that can be viewed as a generalization of the weighted feedback arc set problem to hypergraphs. Our theoretical result can also be made practical: we obtain a heuristic that is effective and scales to real-world datasets.