rstan
Bayesian Semiparametric Mixture Cure (Frailty) Models
Kızılaslan, Fatih, Vitelli, Valeria
In recent years, mixture cure models have gained increasing popularity in survival analysis as an alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model, particularly in settings where a subset of patients is considered cured. The proportional hazards mixture cure model is especially advantageous when the presence of a cured fraction can be reasonably assumed, providing a more accurate representation of long-term survival dynamics. In this study, we propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian framework for the semiparametric mixture cure model, which accommodates both the inclusion and exclusion of a frailty component, allowing for greater flexibility in capturing unobserved heterogeneity among patients. Samples from the posterior distribution are obtained using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, leveraging a hierarchical structure inspired by Bayesian Lasso. Comprehensive simulation studies are conducted across diverse scenarios to evaluate the performance and robustness of the proposed models. Bayesian model comparison and assessment are performed using various criteria. Finally, the proposed approaches are applied to two well-known datasets in the cure model literature: the E1690 melanoma trial and a colon cancer clinical trial.
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Connecting the Dots: Towards Continuous Time Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Continuous time Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is introduced, as a powerful alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for continuous target distributions. The method is constructed in two steps: First Hamiltonian dynamics are chosen as the deterministic dynamics in a continuous time piecewise deterministic Markov process. Under very mild restrictions, such a process will have the desired target distribution as an invariant distribution. Secondly, the numerical implementation of such processes, based on adaptive numerical integration of second order ordinary differential equations is considered. The numerical implementation yields an approximate, yet highly robust algorithm that, unlike conventional Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, enables the exploitation of the complete Hamiltonian trajectories (and hence the title). The proposed algorithm may yield large speedups and improvements in stability relative to relevant benchmarks, while incurring numerical errors that are negligible relative to the overall Monte Carlo errors.
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