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OceanForecastBench: A Benchmark Dataset for Data-Driven Global Ocean Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Global ocean forecasting aims to predict key ocean variables such as temperature, salinity, and currents, which is essential for understanding and describing oceanic phenomena. In recent years, data-driven deep learning-based ocean forecast models, such as XiHe, WenHai, LangYa and AI-GOMS, have demonstrated significant potential in capturing complex ocean dynamics and improving forecasting efficiency. Despite these advancements, the absence of open-source, standardized benchmarks has led to inconsistent data usage and evaluation methods. This gap hinders efficient model development, impedes fair performance comparison, and constrains interdisciplinary collaboration. To address this challenge, we propose OceanForecastBench, a benchmark offering three core contributions: (1) A high-quality global ocean reanalysis data over 28 years for model training, including 4 ocean variables across 23 depth levels and 4 sea surface variables. (2) A high-reliability satellite and in-situ observations for model evaluation, covering approximately 100 million locations in the global ocean. (3) An evaluation pipeline and a comprehensive benchmark with 6 typical baseline models, leveraging observations to evaluate model performance from multiple perspectives. OceanForecastBench represents the most comprehensive benchmarking framework currently available for data-driven ocean forecasting, offering an open-source platform for model development, evaluation, and comparison. The dataset and code are publicly available at: https://github.com/Ocean-Intelligent-Forecasting/OceanForecastBench.


Controlling Steering Angle for Cooperative Self-driving Vehicles utilizing CNN and LSTM-based Deep Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A fundamental challenge in autonomous vehicles is adjusting the steering angle at different road conditions. Recent state-of-the-art solutions addressing this challenge include deep learning techniques as they provide end-to-end solution to predict steering angles directly from the raw input images with higher accuracy. Most of these works ignore the temporal dependencies between the image frames. In this paper, we tackle the problem of utilizing multiple sets of images shared between two autonomous vehicles to improve the accuracy of controlling the steering angle by considering the temporal dependencies between the image frames. This problem has not been studied in the literature widely. We present and study a new deep architecture to predict the steering angle automatically by using Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) in our deep architecture. Our deep architecture is an end-to-end network that utilizes CNN, LSTM and fully connected (FC) layers and it uses both present and futures images (shared by a vehicle ahead via Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication) as input to control the steering angle. Our model demonstrates the lowest error when compared to the other existing approaches in the literature.


Optuna vs Code Llama: Are LLMs a New Paradigm for Hyperparameter Tuning?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Optimal hyperparameter selection is critical for maximizing the performance of neural networks in computer vision, particularly as architectures become more complex. This work explores the use of large language models (LLMs) for hyperparameter optimization by fine-tuning a parameter-efficient version of Code Llama using LoRA. The resulting model produces accurate and computationally efficient hyperparameter recommendations across a wide range of vision architectures. Unlike traditional methods such as Optuna, which rely on resource-intensive trial-and-error procedures, our approach achieves competitive or superior Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) while substantially reducing computational overhead. Importantly, the models evaluated span image-centric tasks such as classification, detection, and segmentation, fundamental components in many image manipulation pipelines including enhancement, restoration, and style transfer . Our results demonstrate that LLM-based optimization not only rivals established Bayesian methods like Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE), but also accelerates tuning for real-world applications requiring perceptual quality and low-latency processing.


Echo State Networks for Bitcoin Time Series Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Forecasting stock and cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to high volatility and non-stationarity, influenced by factors like economic changes and market sentiment. Previous research shows that Echo State Networks (ESNs) can effectively model short-term stock market movements, capturing nonlinear patterns in dynamic data. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to explore ESNs for cryptocurrency forecasting, especially during extreme volatility. We also conduct chaos analysis through the Lyapunov exponent in chaotic periods and show that our approach outperforms existing machine learning methods by a significant margin. Our findings are consistent with the Lyapunov exponent analysis, showing that ESNs are robust during chaotic periods and excel under high chaos compared to Boosting and Naïve methods.


WaveHiTS: Wavelet-Enhanced Hierarchical Time Series Modeling for Wind Direction Nowcasting in Eastern Inner Mongolia

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wind direction forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing wind energy production, but faces significant challenges due to the circular nature of directional data, error accumulation in multi-step forecasting, and complex meteorological interactions. This paper presents a novel model, WaveHiTS, which integrates wavelet transform with Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series to address these challenges. Our approach decomposes wind direction into U-V components, applies wavelet transform to capture multi-scale frequency patterns, and utilizes a hierarchical structure to model temporal dependencies at multiple scales, effectively mitigating error propagation. Experiments conducted on real-world meteorological data from Inner Mongolia, China demonstrate that WaveHiTS significantly outperforms deep learning models (RNN, LSTM, GRU), transformer-based approaches (TFT, Informer, iTransformer), and hybrid models (EMD-LSTM). The proposed model achieves RMSE values of approximately 19.2°-19.4° compared to 56°-64° for deep learning recurrent models, maintaining consistent accuracy across all forecasting steps up to 60 minutes ahead. Moreover, WaveHiTS demonstrates superior robustness with vector correlation coefficients (VCC) of 0.985-0.987 and hit rates of 88.5%-90.1%, substantially outperforming baseline models. Ablation studies confirm that each component-wavelet transform, hierarchical structure, and U-V decomposition-contributes meaningfully to overall performance. These improvements in wind direction nowcasting have significant implications for enhancing wind turbine yaw control efficiency and grid integration of wind energy.


Machine Learning Models for Soil Parameter Prediction Based on Satellite, Weather, Clay and Yield Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Efficient nutrient management and precise fertilization are essential for advancing modern agriculture, particularly in regions striving to optimize crop yields sustainably. The AgroLens project endeavors to address this challenge by develop ing Machine Learning (ML)-based methodologies to predict soil nutrient levels without reliance on laboratory tests. By leveraging state of the art techniques, the project lays a foundation for acionable insights to improve agricultural productivity in resource-constrained areas, such as Africa. The approach begins with the development of a robust European model using the LUCAS Soil dataset and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to estimate key soil properties, including phosphorus, potassium, nitrogen, and pH levels. This model is then enhanced by integrating supplementary features, such as weather data, harvest rates, and Clay AI-generated embeddings. This report details the methodological framework, data preprocessing strategies, and ML pipelines employed in this project. Advanced algorithms, including Random Forests, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Fully Connected Neural Networks (FCNN), were implemented and finetuned for precise nutrient prediction. Results showcase robust model performance, with root mean square error values meeting stringent accuracy thresholds. By establishing a reproducible and scalable pipeline for soil nutrient prediction, this research paves the way for transformative agricultural applications, including precision fertilization and improved resource allocation in underresourced regions like Africa.


H-AddiVortes: Heteroscedastic (Bayesian) Additive Voronoi Tessellations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper introduces the Heteroscedastic AddiVortes model, a Bayesian non-parametric regression framework that simultaneously models the conditional mean and variance of a response variable using adaptive Voronoi tessellations. By employing a sum-of-tessellations approach for the mean and a product-of-tessellations approach for the variance, the model provides a flexible and interpretable means to capture complex, predictor-dependent relationships and heteroscedastic patterns in data. This dual-layer representation enables precise inference, even in high-dimensional settings, while maintaining computational feasibility through efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and conjugate prior structures. We illustrate the model's capability through both simulated and real-world datasets, demonstrating its ability to capture nuanced variance structures, provide reliable predictive uncertainty quantification, and highlight key predictors influencing both the mean response and its variability. Empirical results show that the Heteroscedastic AddiVortes model offers a substantial improvement in capturing distributional properties compared to both homoscedastic and heteroscedastic alternatives, making it a robust tool for complex regression problems in various applied settings.


Data-Driven Transfer Learning Framework for Estimating Turning Movement Counts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Urban transportation networks are vital for the efficient movement of people and goods, necessitating effective traffic management and planning. An integral part of traffic management is understanding the turning movement counts (TMCs) at intersections, Accurate TMCs at intersections are crucial for traffic signal control, congestion mitigation, and road safety. In general, TMCs are obtained using physical sensors installed at intersections, but this approach can be cost-prohibitive and technically challenging, especially for cities with extensive road networks. Recent advancements in machine learning and data-driven approaches have offered promising alternatives for estimating TMCs. Traffic patterns can vary significantly across different intersections due to factors such as road geometry, traffic signal settings, and local driver behaviors. This domain discrepancy limits the generalizability and accuracy of machine learning models when applied to new or unseen intersections. In response to these limitations, this research proposes a novel framework leveraging transfer learning (TL) to estimate TMCs at intersections by using traffic controller event-based data, road infrastructure data, and point-of-interest (POI) data. Evaluated on 30 intersections in Tucson, Arizona, the performance of the proposed TL model was compared with eight state-of-the-art regression models and achieved the lowest values in terms of Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error.


The Performance of the LSTM-based Code Generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) in Forecasting Time Series Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As an intriguing case is the goodness of the machine and deep learning models generated by these LLMs in conducting automated scientific data analysis, where a data analyst may not have enough expertise in manually coding and optimizing complex deep learning models and codes and thus may opt to leverage LLMs to generate the required models. This paper investigates and compares the performance of the mainstream LLMs, such as ChatGPT, PaLM, LLama, and Falcon, in generating deep learning models for analyzing time series data, an important and popular data type with its prevalent applications in many application domains including financial and stock market. This research conducts a set of controlled experiments where the prompts for generating deep learning-based models are controlled with respect to sensitivity levels of four criteria including 1) Clarify and Specificity, 2) Objective and Intent, 3) Contextual Information, and 4) Format and Style. While the results are relatively mix, we observe some distinct patterns. We notice that using LLMs, we are able to generate deep learning-based models with executable codes for each dataset seperatly whose performance are comparable with the manually crafted and optimized LSTM models for predicting the whole time series dataset. We also noticed that ChatGPT outperforms the other LLMs in generating more accurate models. Furthermore, we observed that the goodness of the generated models vary with respect to the ``temperature'' parameter used in configuring LLMS. The results can be beneficial for data analysts and practitioners who would like to leverage generative AIs to produce good prediction models with acceptable goodness.


DiffBatt: A Diffusion Model for Battery Degradation Prediction and Synthesis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Battery degradation remains a critical challenge in the pursuit of green technologies and sustainable energy solutions. Despite significant research efforts, predicting battery capacity loss accurately remains a formidable task due to its complex nature, influenced by both aging and cycling behaviors. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel general-purpose model for battery degradation prediction and synthesis, DiffBatt. Leveraging an innovative combination of conditional and unconditional diffusion models with classifier-free guidance and transformer architecture, DiffBatt achieves high expressivity and scalability. DiffBatt operates as a probabilistic model to capture uncertainty in aging behaviors and a generative model to simulate battery degradation. The performance of the model excels in prediction tasks while also enabling the generation of synthetic degradation curves, facilitating enhanced model training by data augmentation. In the remaining useful life prediction task, DiffBatt provides accurate results with a mean RMSE of 196 cycles across all datasets, outperforming all other models and demonstrating superior generalizability. This work represents an important step towards developing foundational models for battery degradation.