Forecasting the evolution of complex dynamical systems remains a fundamentally challenging task, primarily due to pronounced nonlinear interactions, high-dimensional state spaces, and the concomitant requirement for rigorous and reliable uncertainty quantification. Contemporary reduced-order modelling (ROM) frameworks frequently exhibit inherent trade-offs among predictive accuracy, numerical stability, and interpretability, and thus often fail to achieve an optimal balance among these competing objectives. To address these limitations, we propose a framework for forecasting complex dynamical systems via a kernel autonomous ordinary differential equation approach based on Gaussian Processes and Quadratic Order Model Reduction. Our base method, the Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equations model, allows accurate short-term forecasting with uncertainty quantification, and it provably converges to the real autonomous equation in the smooth case. We integrate it with quadratic order reduced-order modelling and sphere projection for learning the latent dynamics efficiently while preserving stability. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our full model outperforms ROM forecasting methods such as Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition, Bagging Optimised Dynamic Mode Decomposition and Linear and Nonlinear Disambiguation Optimisation in terms of accuracy or computational costs. These results demonstrate the potential of the framework as a robust and stable tool for forecasting complex dynamical systems with rigorous uncertainty quantification.

Kernel-based quadrature rules are becoming important in machine learning and statistics, as they achieve super n convergence rates in numerical integration, and thus provide alternatives to Monte Carlo integration in challenging settings where integrands are expensive to evaluate or where integrands are high dimensional. These rules are based on the assumption that the integrand has a certain degree of smoothness, which is expressed as that the integrand belongs to a certain reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). However, this assumption can be violated in practice (e.g., when the integrand is a black box function), and no general theory has been established for the convergence of kernel quadratures in such misspecified settings. Our contribution is in proving that kernel quadratures can be consistent even when the integrand does not belong to the assumed RKHS, i.e., when the integrand is less smooth than assumed. Specifically, we derive convergence rates that depend on the (unknown) lesser smoothness of the integrand, where the degree of smoothness is expressed via powers of RKHSs or via Sobolev spaces.

Finally, we provide experiments on real data comparing NTK and the Laplace kernel, along with a larger class ofγ-exponential kernels. We show that these perform almost identically.

Statistical leverage scores emerged as a fundamental tool for matrix sketching and column sampling with applications to low rank approximation, regression, random feature learning and quadrature.

We now move to the misspecified case.

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The random features method, proposed by Rahimi and Recht [2008], maps the data to a finite dimensional feature space as a random approximation to the feature space of RBF kernels. With explicit finite dimensional feature vectors available, the original KSVM is converted to a linear support vector machine (LSVM), that can be trained by faster algorithms (Shalev-Shwartz et al.

In this paper, we show that the smoothness of the estimators, and not the dimension, is the key: benign overfitting is possible if and only if the estimator's derivatives are large enough.