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Online Bayesian Calibration under Gradual and Abrupt System Changes
Bayesian model calibration is central to digital twins and computer experiments, as it aligns model outputs with field observations by estimating calibration parameters and correcting systematic model bias. Classical Bayesian calibration introduces latent parameters and a discrepancy function to model bias, but suffers from parameter--discrepancy confounding and is typically formulated as an offline procedure under a stationary data-generating assumption. These limitations are restrictive in modern digital twin applications, where systems evolve over time and may exhibit gradual drift and abrupt regime shifts. While data assimilation methods enable sequential updates, they generally do not explicitly model systematic bias and are less effective under abrupt changes. We propose Bayesian Recursive Projected Calibration (BRPC), an online Bayesian calibration framework for streaming data under simulator mismatch and nonstationarity. BRPC extends projected calibration to the online setting by separating a discrepancy-free particle update for calibration parameters from a conditional Gaussian process update for discrepancy, preserving identifiability while enabling bias-aware adaptation under gradual system evolution. To handle abrupt changes, BRPC is integrated with restart mechanisms that detect regime shifts and reset the calibration process. We establish theoretical guarantees for both components, including tracking performance under gradual evolution and false-alarm and detection behavior for restart mechanisms. Empirical studies on synthetic and plant-simulation benchmarks show that BRPC improves calibration accuracy under gradual changes, while restart-augmented BRPC further improves robustness and predictive performance under abrupt regime shifts compared to sliding-window Bayesian calibration and data assimilation baselines.
AFast Scale-Invariant Algorithm for Non-negative Least Squares with Non-negative Data
Nonnegative (linear) least square problems are a fundamental class of problems that is well-studied in statistical learning and for which solvers have been implemented in many of the standard programming languages used within the machine learning community. The existing off-the-shelf solvers view the non-negativity constraint in these problems as an obstacle and, compared to unconstrained least squares, perform additional effort to address it. However, in many of the typical applications, the data itself is nonnegative as well, and we show that the nonnegativity in this case makes the problem easier. In particular, while the worst-case dimension-independent oracle complexity for unconstrained least squares problems necessarily scales with one of the data matrix constants (typically the spectral norm) and these problems are solved to additive error, we show that nonnegative least squares problems with nonnegative data are solvable to multiplicative error and with complexity independent of any matrix constants. The algorithm we introduce is accelerated and based on a primal-dual perspective. We further show how to provably obtain linear convergence using adaptive restart coupled with our method and demonstrate its effectiveness on large-scale data via numerical experiments.
The Cost of Learning under Multiple Change Points
Gafni, Tomer, Iyengar, Garud, Zeevi, Assaf
We consider an online learning problem in environments with multiple change points. In contrast to the single change point problem that is widely studied using classical "high confidence" detection schemes, the multiple change point environment presents new learning-theoretic and algorithmic challenges. Specifically, we show that classical methods may exhibit catastrophic failure (high regret) due to a phenomenon we refer to as endogenous confounding. To overcome this, we propose a new class of learning algorithms dubbed Anytime Tracking CUSUM (ATC). These are horizon-free online algorithms that implement a selective detection principle, balancing the need to ignore "small" (hard-to-detect) shifts, while reacting "quickly" to significant ones. We prove that the performance of a properly tuned ATC algorithm is nearly minimax-optimal; its regret is guaranteed to closely match a novel information-theoretic lower bound on the achievable performance of any learning algorithm in the multiple change point problem. Experiments on synthetic as well as real-world data validate the aforementioned theoretical findings.
Windows won't boot? Safe Mode is the lifeline you need
PCWorld explains how Safe Mode serves as a critical troubleshooting tool when Windows fails to boot by loading only essential system components. Safe Mode enables users to identify problematic drivers, uninstall recent programs, run system repairs like SFC and DISM, and access System Restore. Key diagnostic tools include boot logging to identify crash-causing drivers, Device Manager for driver rollbacks, and startup management through Task Manager. If your Windows PC won't start properly or keeps crashing, Safe Mode can help you identify the cause and fix the problem. In Safe Mode, Windows only loads the most essential drivers and services, skips third-party autostart programs, and uses a simple graphical user interface. This allows you to disable faulty drivers, software, or malware-since these do not run in Safe Mode.