reliability
Beyond Greedy Exits: Improved Early Exit Decisions for Risk Control and Reliability
Early-Exit Deep Neural Networks enable adaptive inference by allowing prediction at intermediary layers, significantly reducing computational costs and latency. Most of the early exit strategies greedily exit a sample at an intermediary layer if the confidence in class prediction exceeds a predefined threshold that is set using a static validation set. This is problematic as the model might be overconfident in a wrong class. Also, they are not robust to distribution shifts encountered in deployment, which can undermine model trustworthiness and accuracy. To address these challenges, we propose UAT that adapts the threshold for exit decisions using a Multi-Armed Bandit framework, enabling online, unsupervised adjustment of exit decisions. UAT makes decisions based on a new reward function that assesses predictive certainty and its reliability to balance computational efficiency and prediction quality while penalizing unnecessary late exits. We provide guarantees on risk achieved by UAT and validate its performance on diverse tasks spanning vision-language understanding, text generation, and classification. Our framework demonstrates consistent improvements in speedup (1.70 2.10) with a minimal performance drop (< 2%) as compared to full model performance. Our source code is available at https://github.com/Div290/UAT.
Risk Management for Mitigating Benchmark Failure Modes: BenchRisk
Large language model (LLM) benchmarks inform LLM use decisions (e.g., "is this LLM safe to deploy for my use case and context?"). However, benchmarks may be rendered unreliable by various failure modes that impact benchmark bias, variance, coverage, or people's capacity to understand benchmark evidence. Using the National Institute of Standards and Technology's risk management process as a foundation, this research iteratively analyzed 26 popular benchmarks, identifying 57 potential failure modes and 196 corresponding mitigation strategies. The mitigations reduce failure likelihood and/or severity, providing a frame for evaluating "benchmark risk," which is scored to provide a metaevaluation benchmark: BenchRisk. Higher scores indicate that benchmark users are less likely to reach an incorrect or unsupported conclusion about an LLM. All 26 scored benchmarks present significant risk within one or more of the five scored dimensions (comprehensiveness, intelligibility, consistency, correctness, and longevity), which points to important open research directions for the field of LLM benchmarking. The BenchRisk workflow allows for comparison between benchmarks; as an open-source tool, it also facilitates the identification and sharing of risks and their mitigations.
Measurement noise limits the advantage of nonlinear models over linear models in biomedical prediction
Schulz, Marc-Andre, Ritter, Kerstin
On biomedical tabular data, flexible models such as deep networks, gradient-boosted trees, and kernel methods are repeatedly matched or beaten by linear and logistic regression given the same features. The usual reaction is to treat this as a model-side shortfall, to be fixed with more data, a better architecture, or tuning, on the assumption that the nonlinear structure is there and the model has failed to capture it. We argue that these fixes cannot help when the binding limit is the measurement rather than the model, as it frequently is in biomedicine. Additive noise blurs the population-optimal predictor, and because blurring removes a function's fine, rapidly varying detail before its broad shape, it erases nonlinear structure faster than linear structure. A degree-$k$ interaction is attenuated by the $k$-th power of feature reliability, while the linear part is attenuated only once. At the reliabilities typical of biomedical measurement, the nonlinear advantage can vanish even when the underlying biology is strongly nonlinear, and what the noise removes cannot be recovered by a larger cohort or a more flexible model, only by better measurement. The nonlinearity is hidden, not absent, and a tie between linear and flexible models is not by itself a verdict on the biology. These pieces are classical, drawn from measurement-error statistics, psychometrics, and Gaussian analysis, and we assemble them into an exact excess-risk identity. Measurement reliability is one of three conditions, alongside sample size and feature representation, that must align for a flexible model to help, and together they leave only a narrow window that most biomedical tasks fall outside. Across 140 UK Biobank tasks, the gap between flexible and linear models, where it exists, carries the predicted noise signature, and the three conditions can be separated by intervention but not by a benchmark alone.
Multi-Objective Hyperparameter Selection via Hypothesis Testing on Reliability Graphs
The selection of hyperparameters, such as prompt templates in large language models (LLMs), must often strike a balance between reliability and cost. In many cases, structural relationships between the expected reliability levels of the hyperparameters can be inferred from prior information and held-out data - e.g., longer prompt templates may be more detailed and thus more reliable. However, existing hyperparameter selection methods either do not provide formal reliability guarantees or are unable to incorporate structured knowledge in the hyperparameter space. This paper introduces reliability graph-based Pareto testing (RG-PT), a novel multi-objective hyperparameter selection framework that maintains formal reliability guarantees in terms of false discovery rate (FDR), while accounting for known relationships among hyperparameters via a directed acyclic graph. Edges in the graph reflect expected reliability and cost trade-offs among hyperparameters, which are inferred via the Bradley-Terry (BT) ranking model from prior information and held-out data. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that RG-PT significantly outperforms existing methods such as learn-then-test (LTT) and Pareto testing (PT) through a more efficient exploration of the hyperparameter space.
Deliberation on Priors: Trustworthy Reasoning of Large Language Models on Knowledge Graphs
Knowledge graph-based retrieval-augmented generation seeks to mitigate hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) caused by insufficient or outdated knowledge. However, existing methods often fail to fully exploit the prior knowledge embedded in knowledge graphs (KGs), particularly their structural information and explicit or implicit constraints. The former can enhance the faithfulness of LLMs' reasoning, while the latter can improve the reliability of response generations. Motivated by these, we propose a trustworthy reasoning framework, termed Deliberation over Priors (\texttt{DP}), which sufficiently utilizes the priors contained in KGs. Specifically, \texttt{DP} adopts a progressive knowledge distillation strategy that integrates structural priors into LLMs through a combination of supervised fine-tuning and Kahneman-Tversky Optimization, thereby improving the faithfulness of relation path generation. Furthermore, our framework employs a reasoning-introspection strategy, which guides LLMs to perform refined reasoning verification based on extracted constraint priors, ensuring the reliability of response generation. Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that \texttt{DP} achieves new state-of-the-art performance, especially a H@1 improvement of 13% on the ComplexWebQuestions dataset, and generates highly trustworthy responses. We also conduct various analyses to verify its flexibility and practicality.
Wisdom is Knowing What not to Say: Hallucination-Free LLMs Unlearning via Attention Shifting
The increase in computing power and the necessity of AI-assisted decision-making boost the growing application of large language models (LLMs). Along with this, the potential retention of sensitive data of LLMs has spurred increasing research into machine unlearning. However, existing unlearning approaches face a critical dilemma: Aggressive unlearning compromises model utility, while conservative strategies preserve utility but risk hallucinated responses. This significantly limits LLMs' reliability in knowledge-intensive applications. To address this, we introduce a novel Attention-Shifting (AS) framework for selective unlearning.
Geometric Logit Decoupling for Energy-Based Graph Out-of-distribution Detection
GNNs have achieved remarkable performance across a range of tasks, but their reliability under distribution shifts remains a significant challenge. In particular, energy-based OOD detection methods--which compute energy scores from GNN logits--suffer from unstable performance due to a fundamental coupling between the norm and direction of node embeddings. Our analysis reveals that this coupling leads to systematic misclassification of high-norm OOD samples and hinders reliable ID-OOD separation. Interestingly, GNNs also exhibit a desirable inductive bias known as angular clustering, where embeddings of the same class align in direction. Motivated by these observations, we propose GeoEnergy (Geometric Logit Decoupling for Energy-Based OOD Detection), a plug-and-play framework that enforces hyperspherical logit geometry by normalizing class weights while preserving embedding norms. This decoupling yields more structured energy distributions, sharper intra-class alignment, and improved calibration. GeoEnergy can be integrated into existing energy-based GNNs without retraining or architectural modification. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GeoEnergy consistently improves OOD detection performance and confidence reliability across various benchmarks and distribution shifts.
Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems
Greenbury, Sam F., Jersakova, Radka, Conti, Paolo, Famili, Marjan, Sprague, Christopher Iliffe, Brown, Edwin, McEwen, Jason D.
Two dominant approaches have emerged for generating probabilistic forecasts of physical systems: generative models, such as diffusion or flow matching; and ensembles of deterministic models with stochasticity injected, trained using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) loss. While both approaches have demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, the reliability of their uncertainties has not been systematically assessed. We address this gap by developing a framework to evaluate both approaches across diverse 2D spatiotemporal physical systems, under matched model size and computational budget. We assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation by inspecting the empirical coverage of predictive intervals, while also considering accuracy and computational efficiency metrics. CRPS-trained ensembles typically achieve more reliable uncertainties on both single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts, demonstrating better coverage than the standard alternative of training generative models in a latent space. Moreover, the CRPS approach offers significantly faster inference. When generative models are trained in ambient rather than a compressed latent space, which is often infeasible for high-dimensional problems, they exhibit comparable coverage to CRPS-trained ensembles, though with substantially larger inference latency. In contrast, when CRPS-trained ensembles are trained in latent space they do not show a marked degradation in coverage with respect to ambient space. Both generative models and CRPS-trained ensembles demonstrate good predictive accuracy. To facilitate future research and application, we release AutoCast, a modular framework implementing both generative models and CRPS-trained ensembles, alongside AutoSim, a flexible dataset generation package for rapid prototyping.
Structured Spectral Reasoning for Frequency-Adaptive Multimodal Recommendation
Multimodal recommendation aims to integrate collaborative signals with heterogeneous content such as visual and textual information, but remains challenged by modality-specific noise, semantic inconsistency, and unstable propagation over user-item graphs. These issues are often exacerbated by naive fusion or shallow modeling strategies, leading to degraded generalization and poor robustness. While recent work has explored the frequency domain as a lens to separate stable from noisy signals, most methods rely on static filtering or reweighting, lacking the ability to reason over spectral structure or adapt to modality-specific reliability. To address these challenges, we propose a Structured Spectral Reasoning (SSR) framework for frequency-aware multimodal recommendation. Our method follows a four-stage pipeline: (i) Decompose graph-based multimodal signals into spectral bands via graph-guided transformations to isolate semantic granularity; (ii) Modulate band-level reliability with spectral band masking, a training-time masking with representation-consistency objective that suppresses brittle frequency components; (iii) Fuse complementary frequency cues using hyperspectral reasoning with low-rank cross-band interaction; and (iv) Align modality-specific spectral features via contrastive regularization to promote semantic and structural consistency. Experiments on three real-world benchmarks show consistent gains over strong baselines, particularly under sparse and cold-start settings. Additional analyses indicate that structured spectral modeling improves robustness and provides clearer diagnostics of how different bands contribute to performance.