We develop a near-optimal testing procedure under the framework of Gaussian differential privacy for simple as well as one- and two-sided tests under monotone likelihood ratio conditions. Our mechanism is based on a private mean estimator with data-driven clamping bounds, whose population risk matches the private minimax rate up to logarithmic factors. Using this estimator, we construct private test statistics that achieve the same asymptotic relative efficiency as the non-private, most powerful tests while maintaining conservative type I error control. In addition to our theoretical results, our numerical experiments show that our private tests outperform competing DP methods and offer comparable power to the non-private most powerful tests, even at moderately small sample sizes and privacy loss budgets.

In large-scale supervised learning, penalized logistic regression (PLR) effectively addresses the overfitting problem by introducing regularization terms yet its performance still depends on efficient variable selection strategies. This paper theoretically demonstrates that label noise stemming from manual labeling, which is solely related to classification difficulty, represents a type of beneficial noise for variable selection in PLR. This benefit is reflected in a more accurate estimation of the selected non-zero coefficients when compared with the case where only truth labels are used. Under large-scale settings, the sample size for PLR can become very large, making it infeasible to store on a single machine. In such cases, distributed computing methods are required to handle PLR model with manual labeling. This paper presents a partition-insensitive parallel algorithm founded on the ADMM (alternating direction method of multipliers) algorithm to address PLR by incorporating manual labeling. The partition insensitivity of the proposed algorithm refers to the fact that the solutions obtained by the algorithm will not change with the distributed storage of data. In addition, the algorithm has global convergence and a sublinear convergence rate. Experimental results indicate that, as compared with traditional variable selection classification techniques, the PLR with manually-labeled noisy data achieves higher estimation and classification accuracy across multiple large-scale datasets.

In numerous predictive scenarios, the predictive model affects the sampling distribution; for example, job applicants often meticulously craft their resumes to navigate through a screening systems. Such shifts in distribution are particularly prevalent in the realm of social computing, yet, the strategies to learn these shifts from data remain remarkably limited. Inspired by a microeconomic model that adeptly characterizes agents' behavior within labor markets, we introduce a novel approach to learn the distribution shift. Our method is predicated on a reverse causal model, wherein the predictive model instigates a distribution shift exclusively through a finite set of agents' actions. Within this framework, we employ a microfoundation model for the agents' actions and develop a statistically justified methodology to learn the distribution shift map, which we demonstrate to be effective in minimizing the performative prediction risk.

We consider the hypothesis testing problem of detecting a shift between the means of two multivariate normal distributions in the high-dimensional setting, allowing for the data dimension p to exceed the sample size n.

Numerous robust estimators exist as alternatives to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when a completely observed ground-up loss severity sample dataset is available. However, the options for robust alternatives to MLE become significantly limited when dealing with grouped loss severity data, with only a handful of methods like least squares, minimum Hellinger distance, and optimal bounded influence function available. This paper introduces a novel robust estimation technique, the Method of Truncated Moments (MTuM), specifically designed to estimate the tail index of a Pareto distribution from grouped data. Inferential justification of MTuM is established by employing the central limit theorem and validating them through a comprehensive simulation study.

Continuous-time event sequences, i.e., sequences consisting of continuous time stamps and associated event types ("marks"), are an important type of sequential data with many applications, e.g., in clinical medicine or user behavior modeling. Since these data are typically modeled autoregressively (e.g., using neural Hawkes processes or their classical counterparts), it is natural to ask questions about future scenarios such as "what kind of event will occur next" or "will an event of type $A$ occur before one of type $B$". Unfortunately, some of these queries are notoriously hard to address since current methods are limited to naive simulation, which can be highly inefficient. This paper introduces a new typology of query types and a framework for addressing them using importance sampling. Example queries include predicting the $n^\text{th}$ event type in a sequence and the hitting time distribution of one or more event types. We also leverage these findings further to be applicable for estimating general "$A$ before $B$" type of queries. We prove theoretically that our estimation method is effectively always better than naive simulation and show empirically based on three real-world datasets that it is on average 1,000 times more efficient than existing approaches.

Performance optimization of deep learning models is conducted either manually or through automatic architecture search, or a combination of both. On the other hand, their performance strongly depends on the target hardware and how successfully the models were trained. We propose to use a multi-dimensional Pareto frontier to re-define the efficiency measure of candidate deep learning models, where several variables such as training cost, inference latency, and accuracy play a relative role in defining a dominant model. Furthermore, a random version of the multi-dimensional Pareto frontier is introduced to mitigate the uncertainty of accuracy, latency, and throughput of deep learning models in different experimental setups. These two complementary methods can be combined to perform objective benchmarking of deep learning models. Our proposed method is applied to a wide range of deep image classification models trained on ImageNet data. Our method combines competing variables with stochastic nature in a single relative efficiency measure. This allows ranking deep learning models that run efficiently on different hardware, and combining inference efficiency with training efficiency objectively.

Various conceptual and descriptive models of conversational search have been proposed in the literature -- while useful, they do not provide insights into how interaction between the agent and user would change in response to the costs and benefits of the different interactions. In this paper, we develop two economic models of conversational search based on patterns previously observed during conversational search sessions, which we refer to as: Feedback First where the agent asks clarifying questions then presents results, and Feedback After where the agent presents results, and then asks follow up questions. Our models show that the amount of feedback given/requested depends on its efficiency at improving the initial or subsequent query and the relative cost of providing said feedback. This theoretical framework for conversational search provides a number of insights that can be used to guide and inform the development of conversational search agents. However, empirical work is needed to estimate the parameters in order to make predictions specific to a given conversational search setting.