Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are a widely used framework for modeling systems whose probabilistic structure evolves over time. Standard inference methods focus on local conditional distributions and can miss larger-scale patterns in how dependencies between variables organize and change over time. We introduce a topological approach to this problem. To each DBN we associate a time-varying graph, called a Dynamic Bayesian Graph (DBG), by assigning to each edge a strength that measures variation in its conditional dependence across parent configurations, and retaining edges whose strength exceeds a chosen threshold. We show that this construction fits within the dynamic graph framework of Kim and Mémoli, enabling the use of tools from topological data analysis. Applying persistent homology to a DBG produces a barcode, which records the merging and disappearance of connected groups of strongly dependent variables over time. We prove that this barcode is stable: small perturbations in the conditional probability tables of the DBN lead to small changes in the resulting barcode. This yields a principled and noise-resistant summary of how dependency structure evolves in a dynamic Bayesian network.

Security around Beijing's historic Tiananmen Square has been heightened for days, with rumours on social media swirling of a special parade or some big, choreographed event. Preparations for this major event have started with a whisper, but China appears ready to put on a show for US President Donald Trump. The visit will include talks, a banquet, and a visit to the Temple of Heaven, a complex of imperial temples where emperors would pray for a good harvest. And both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be hoping the visit will bear fruit. This summit between the world's two most powerful leaders is set to be one of the most consequential encounters for years.

At the core of scientific computing and much of modern machine learning (ML) lies the challenge of estimating the eigenvalues of high-dimensional Hermitian matrices. Such matrices, including kernels, Hessians, and graph representations, encode the intrinsic geometry and connectivity of the data and models built on them, rendering the pursuit of efficient spectral techniques a primary concern for both theory and practice. Studying eigenspectra has become a prominent approach to understanding performance and guiding training in deep learning [10, 20, 36, 53]. In many cases, the spectra of such matrices have non-trivial structure, often containing spikes, multiple multi-modal bulks, and heavy-tails [14, 25]. Conventional algorithms to extract eigenvalue information from these matrices have required that the data are able to be stored in memory, scratch space, or can at least be accessed as an implicit operator (via matrix-vector products). More recently, a new class of algorithms has emerged that is able to provide highly-accurate estimates of the eigenvalues (or summary functionals thereof [2]) of matrices, even without implicit or explicit access to the full matrix, i.e., of so-called impalpable matrices [1]. One such method, termed Free Decompression (FD), shows great promise as a tool for gaining access to the spectral distributions of such impalpable matrices. The central premise is that by appropriately sampling a small sub-matrix from the large impalpable matrix of interest, one can evolve a partial differential equation (PDE) in the Stieltjes transform of a spectral density in the decompression ratio to the desired matrix dimension.

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Techniques for concept extraction, such as sparse autoencoders and transcoders, aim to extract high-level symbolic concepts from low-level nonsymbolic representations. When these extracted concepts are used for downstream tasks such as model steering and unlearning, it is essential to understand their guarantees, or lack thereof. In this work, we present a unified theoretical framework for unsupervised concept extraction, in which we frame the task of concept extraction as identifying a generative model. We present a general meta-theorem for identifiability, which reduces the problem of establishing identifiability guarantees to the problem of characterizing the intersection of two sets. As we demonstrate on a range of widely-used approaches, this meta-theorem substantially simplifies the task of proving such guarantees, thus paving the way for the development of new, principled approaches for concept extraction.

We study the consistency of surrogate risks for robust binary classification. It is common to learn robust classifiers by adversarial training, which seeks to minimize the expected 0-1 loss when each example can be maliciously corrupted within a small ball. We give a simple and complete characterization of the set of surrogate loss functions that are consistent, i.e., that can replace the 0-1loss without affecting the minimizing sequences of the original adversarial risk, for any data distribution. We also prove a quantitative version of adversarial consistency for the ρ-margin loss. Our results reveal that the class of adversarially consistent surrogates is substantially smaller than in the standard setting, where many common surrogates are known to be consistent.