Almost 50% depression patients face the risk of going into relapse. The risk increases to 80% after the second episode of depression. Although, depression detection from social media has attained considerable attention, depression relapse detection has remained largely unexplored due to the lack of curated datasets and the difficulty of distinguishing relapse and non-relapse users. In this work, we present ReDepress, the first clinically validated social media dataset focused on relapse, comprising 204 Reddit users annotated by mental health professionals. Unlike prior approaches, our framework draws on cognitive theories of depression, incorporating constructs such as attention bias, interpretation bias, memory bias and rumination into both annotation and modeling. Through statistical analyses and machine learning experiments, we demonstrate that cognitive markers significantly differentiate relapse and non-relapse groups, and that models enriched with these features achieve competitive performance, with transformer-based temporal models attaining an F1 of 0.86. Our findings validate psychological theories in real-world textual data and underscore the potential of cognitive-informed computational methods for early relapse detection, paving the way for scalable, low-cost interventions in mental healthcare.

Stroke is the second most frequent cause of death world wide with an annual mortality of around 5.5 million. Recurrence rates of stroke are between 5 and 25% in the first year. As mortality rates for relapses are extraordinarily high (40%) it is of utmost importance to reduce the recurrence rates. We address this issue by detecting patients at risk of stroke recurrence at an early stage in order to enable appropriate therapy planning. To this end we collected 3D intracranial CTA image data and recorded concomitant heart diseases, the age and the gender of stroke patients between 2010 and 2024. We trained single- and multimodal deep learning based neural networks for binary relapse detection (Task 1) and for relapse free survival (RFS) time prediction together with a subsequent classification (Task 2). The separation of relapse from non-relapse patients (Task 1) could be solved with tabular data (AUC on test dataset: 0.84). However, for the main task, the regression (Task 2), our multimodal XSRD-net processed the modalities vision:tabular with 0.68:0.32 according to modality contribution measures. The c-index with respect to relapses for the multimodal model reached 0.68, and the AUC is 0.71 for the test dataset. Final, deeper interpretability analysis results could highlight a link between both heart diseases (tabular) and carotid arteries (vision) for the detection of relapses and the prediction of the RFS time. This is a central outcome that we strive to strengthen with ongoing data collection and model retraining.

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune and inflammatory neurological disorder characterised by episodes of symptom exacerbation, known as relapses. In this study, we investigate the role of environmental factors in relapse occurrence among MS patients, using data from the H2020 BRAINTEASER project. We employed predictive models, including Random Forest (RF) and Logistic Regression (LR), with varying sets of input features to predict the occurrence of relapses based on clinical and pollutant data collected over a week. The RF yielded the best result, with an AUC-ROC score of 0.713. Environmental variables, such as precipitation, NO2, PM2.5, humidity, and temperature, were found to be relevant to the prediction.

In the last decade, the United States has lost more than 500,000 people from an overdose involving prescription and illicit opioids (https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/epidemic/index.html) making it a national public health emergency (USDHHS, 2017). To more effectively prevent unintentional opioid overdoses, medical practitioners require robust and timely tools that can effectively identify at-risk patients. Community-based social media platforms such as Reddit allow self-disclosure for users to discuss otherwise sensitive drug-related behaviors, often acting as indicators for opioid use disorder. Towards this, we present a moderate size corpus of 2500 opioid-related posts from various subreddits spanning 6 different phases of opioid use: Medical Use, Misuse, Addiction, Recovery, Relapse, Not Using. For every post, we annotate span-level extractive explanations and crucially study their role both in annotation quality and model development. We evaluate several state-of-the-art models in a supervised, few-shot, or zero-shot setting. Experimental results and error analysis show that identifying the phases of opioid use disorder is highly contextual and challenging. However, we find that using explanations during modeling leads to a significant boost in classification accuracy demonstrating their beneficial role in a high-stakes domain such as studying the opioid use disorder continuum. The dataset will be made available for research on Github in the formal version.

Electronic health record (EHR) data are increasingly used to support real-world evidence (RWE) studies. Yet its ability to generate reliable RWE is limited by the lack of readily available precise information on the timing of clinical events such as the onset time of heart failure. We propose a LAbel-efficienT incidenT phEnotyping (LATTE) algorithm to accurately annotate the timing of clinical events from longitudinal EHR data. By leveraging the pre-trained semantic embedding vectors from large-scale EHR data as prior knowledge, LATTE selects predictive EHR features in a concept re-weighting module by mining their relationship to the target event and compresses their information into longitudinal visit embeddings through a visit attention learning network. LATTE employs a recurrent neural network to capture the sequential dependency between the target event and visit embeddings before/after it. To improve label efficiency, LATTE constructs highly informative longitudinal silver-standard labels from large-scale unlabeled patients to perform unsupervised pre-training and semi-supervised joint training. Finally, LATTE enhances cross-site portability via contrastive representation learning. LATTE is evaluated on three analyses: the onset of type-2 diabetes, heart failure, and the onset and relapses of multiple sclerosis. We use various evaluation metrics present in the literature including the $ABC_{gain}$, the proportion of reduction in the area between the observed event indicator and the predicted cumulative incidences in reference to the prediction per incident prevalence. LATTE consistently achieves substantial improvement over benchmark methods such as SAMGEP and RETAIN in all settings.

This paper presents the approach and results of USC SAIL's submission to the Signal Processing Grand Challenge 2023 - e-Prevention (Task 2), on detecting relapses in psychotic patients. Relapse prediction has proven to be challenging, primarily due to the heterogeneity of symptoms and responses to treatment between individuals. We address these challenges by investigating the use of sleep behavior features to estimate relapse days as outliers in an unsupervised machine learning setting. We extract informative features from human activity and heart rate data collected in the wild, and evaluate various combinations of feature types and time resolutions. We found that short-time sleep behavior features outperformed their awake counterparts and larger time intervals. Our submission was ranked 3rd in the Task's official leaderboard, demonstrating the potential of such features as an objective and non-invasive predictor of psychotic relapses.

Background: Stratifying cancer patients according to risk of relapse can personalize their care. In this work, we provide an answer to the following research question: How to utilize machine learning to estimate probability of relapse in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer patients? Methods: For predicting relapse in 1,387 early-stage (I-II), non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients from the Spanish Lung Cancer Group data (65.7 average age, 24.8% females, 75.2% males) we train tabular and graph machine learning models. We generate automatic explanations for the predictions of such models. For models trained on tabular data, we adopt SHAP local explanations to gauge how each patient feature contributes to the predicted outcome. We explain graph machine learning predictions with an example-based method that highlights influential past patients. Results: Machine learning models trained on tabular data exhibit a 76% accuracy for the Random Forest model at predicting relapse evaluated with a 10-fold cross-validation (model was trained 10 times with different independent sets of patients in test, train and validation sets, the reported metrics are averaged over these 10 test sets). Graph machine learning reaches 68% accuracy over a 200-patient, held-out test set, calibrated on a held-out set of 100 patients. Conclusions: Our results show that machine learning models trained on tabular and graph data can enable objective, personalised and reproducible prediction of relapse and therefore, disease outcome in patients with early-stage NSCLC. With further prospective and multisite validation, and additional radiological and molecular data, this prognostic model could potentially serve as a predictive decision support tool for deciding the use of adjuvant treatments in early-stage lung cancer. Keywords: Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer, Tumor Recurrence Prediction, Machine Learning

While the emergence of large administrative claims data provides opportunities for research, their use remains limited by the lack of clinical annotations relevant to disease outcomes, such as recurrence in breast cancer (BC). Several challenges arise from the annotation of such endpoints in administrative claims, including the need to infer both the occurrence and the date of the recurrence, the right-censoring of data, or the importance of time intervals between medical visits. Deep learning approaches have been successfully used to label temporal medical sequences, but no method is currently able to handle simultaneously right-censoring and visit temporality to detect survival events in medical sequences. We propose EDEN (Event DEtection Network), a time-aware Long-Short-Term-Memory network for survival analyses, and its custom loss function. Our method outperforms several state-of-the-art approaches on real-world BC datasets. EDEN constitutes a powerful tool to annotate disease recurrence from administrative claims, thus paving the way for the massive use of such data in BC research.

Artificial intelligence (AI) may be able to identify alcoholics at risk of relapsing after treatment, researchers say. Patients often return to heavy drinking during and after treatment, and may require multiple tries before they can achieve long-term abstinence from unhealthy alcohol use. AI may allow care providers and patients to predict drinking relapses and adjust treatment before they occur, Yale University researchers found. In a new study, the investigators used clinical data and a form of AI called machine learning to develop models to predict relapses among patients in an outpatient treatment program. Data from more than 1,300 U.S. adults in a 16-week clinical trial of treatments in 11 centers were used to develop and test the predictive models.

According to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the term real-world data (RWD) refers to routinely collected data relating to patient health status and the delivery of healthcare services, and real-world evidence (RWE) is the clinical evidence regarding the usage and potential benefits or risks of a medical product derived from the analysis of RWD. Both RWD and RWE have increasingly attracted attention in the healthcare industry for years now, and rightly so, considering that the healthcare analytics market is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 28.9% between now and 2026. There's no doubt that within this massive data trove, there exist countless insights that could streamline care delivery, help physicians diagnose disease faster, and improve treatment strategies – if only we could identify them. This data revolution we are experiencing in the healthcare industry necessitates the appropriate tools and approaches to work with higher dimensional data sources to truly harvest the insights buried in RWD. Machine learning, an area of artificial intelligence (AI) consisting of a collection of methodologies that focus on algorithmically learning efficient representations of data and extracting insights from data, offers promise and has consistently been gaining traction within the industry in the context of RWD.