A growing number of techniques leverage the spatial structures that underlie many real-world datasets. Despite these advances, the complementary task of estimating spatial structures and understanding their role within these techniques has often been overlooked. In neurophysiological data analysis specifically, numerous methods exist to estimate brain connectivity, but most are not explicitly model-based, dynamic, multivariate, or directed. To address these limitations, we previously introduced noise-driven heat modelling on graphs for neurophysiological connectivity estimation. In this study, we extend this framework by relaxing earlier noise assumptions and adding regularisation to improve robustness. We also develop a simulation procedure to characterise and evaluate our technique in a controlled setting. Finally, we demonstrate that the technique is able to capture meaningful spatial structure across two experiments, each using two real-world datasets. The explicit model formulation of our connectivity estimator has the potential to improve the interpretability of graph-based techniques across a wide range of applications. The code implementing our method is available at https://github.com/sgoerttler/Heat_Connectivity.

In reinforcement learning with sparse rewards, demonstrations can accelerate learning, but determining when to imitate them remains challenging. We propose Smooth Policy Regularisation from Demonstrations (SPReD), a framework that addresses the fundamental question: when should an agent imitate a demonstration versus follow its own policy? SPReD uses ensemble methods to explicitly model Q-value distributions for both demonstration and policy actions, quantifying uncertainty for comparisons. We develop two complementary uncertainty-aware methods: a probabilistic approach estimating the likelihood of demonstration superiority, and an advantage-based approach scaling imitation by statistical significance.

We study the privacy of releasing posterior sample paths from a Gaussian process (GP) when the entire training set including covariates and responses is private. Unlike standard differential-privacy (DP) mechanisms that add external noise, posterior sampling is random by construction. We show that this intrinsic randomness yields DP guarantees by deriving explicit Rényi-DP bounds for GP posterior sample-path release. The bounds separate posterior-mean leakage from data-dependent posterior-covariance leakage showing that meaningful privacy depends sharply on effective ridge regularisation. We apply membership-inference attacks to show that empirical leakage follows the predicted dependence on regularisation, posterior variance and the number of released posterior sample-paths. Utility experiments on downstream posterior-sampling tasks identify noisy-observation regimes where privacy-compatible regularisation preserves useful decisions with modest utility loss. When stronger privacy is needed, the intrinsic guarantee can be sharpened by adding calibrated GP noise, providing an explicit additional privacy knob.

We study online convex optimisation on ℓp-balls in Rd for p > 2. While always sub-linear, the optimal regret exhibits a shift between the high-dimensional setting (d > T), when the dimension d is greater than the time horizon T and the low-dimensional setting (d T). We show that Follow-the-Regularised-Leader (FTRL) with time-varying regularisation which is adaptive to the dimension regime is anytime optimal for all dimension regimes. Motivated by this, we ask whether it is possible to obtain anytime optimality of FTRL with fixed non-adaptive regularisation. Our main result establishes that for separable regularisers, adaptivity in the regulariser is necessary, and that any fixed regulariser will be sub-optimal in one of the two dimension regimes. Finally, we provide lower bounds which rule out sublinear regret bounds for the linear bandit problem in sufficiently high-dimension for all ℓp-balls with p 1.

Wide neural networks in the feature-learning regime drive modern deep learning, and yet they remain far less studied than their kernel-regime counterparts. We consider a critical yet under-explored difference between these two regimes: the regulariser and prior implied by gradient flow training. This canonical regularisation property is well-studied in kernel regime networks -- of all the infinite global minima, gradient flow selects exactly the vanishing ridge solution -- and underpins the celebrated NN-GP correspondence, precisely allowing the modelling of noise during training. However, we prove ridge regularisation biases gradient flow in feature-learning regime networks, even in the infinitesimal limit of vanishing regularisation. Over training, ridge distorts the inductive bias of the network, with a particular damage done to pretrained networks where the implicit prior is informative. We resolve this by axiomatising the canonical regulariser as a regime-agnostic function-space energy and lift, which uniquely identifies ridge in the kernel regime, and crucially generalises to the feature-learning regime. By studying the Riemannian geometry of feature-learning networks, we derive geodesic ridge from our framework, generalising ridge to the feature-learning regime. Correspondingly, we prove the canonical function-space prior is a Riemannian Gibbs Process, generalising the more familiar Gaussian Process. As a practical contribution, we propose arc ridge as a minimax-robust, scalable surrogate to geodesic ridge, revealing a deep relationship between early stopping and canonical regularisation across learning regimes. Finally, we demonstrate the consequences of our theory empirically on both image processing and NLP transfer-learning problems.

We develop a Bayesian tree ensemble model to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in censored survival data with high-dimensional covariates. Instead of imposing sparsity through the tree structure, we place a horseshoe prior directly on the step heights to achieve adaptive global-local shrinkage. This strategy allows flexible regularisation and reduces noise. We develop a reversible jump Gibbs sampler to accommodate the non-conjugate horseshoe prior within the tree ensemble framework. We show through extensive simulations that the method accurately estimates treatment effects in high-dimensional covariate spaces, at various sparsity levels, and under non-linear treatment effect functions. We further illustrate the practical utility of the proposed approach by a re-analysis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) survival data from The Cancer Genome Atlas.

We introduce a general framework that extends Bayesian inference by allowing the researcher to explicitly encode confidence in each source of uncertainty within the model. This mechanism provides a new handle for model design and regularisation control. Building on this framework, we develop a general approach for inducing sparsity in statistical models and illustrate its use in linear and logistic regression, as well as in Bayesian neural networks.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Generalised linear models for multi-class classification problems are one of the fundamental building blocks of modern machine learning tasks. In this manuscript, we characterise the learning of a mixture of KGaussians with generic means and covariances via empirical risk minimisation (ERM) with any convex loss and regularisation. In particular, we prove exact asymptotics characterising the ERM estimator in high-dimensions, extending several previous results about Gaussian mixture classification in the literature. We exemplify our result in two tasks of interest in statistical learning: a) classification for a mixture with sparse means, where we study the efficiency of `1 penalty with respect to `2; b) max-margin multiclass classification, where we characterise the phase transition on the existence of the multi-class logistic maximum likelihood estimator for K >2. Finally, we discuss how our theory can be applied beyond the scope of synthetic data, showing that in different cases Gaussian mixtures capture closely the learning curve of classification tasks in real data sets.

Unlike MI, some GEMINIs do not require regularisations when training.