However, on-body displacement of sensors is inevitable since the device cannot be firmly worn at a fixed position across different sessions.

Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCEs) are widely recognized for their efficient computational performance in surrogate modeling. Yet, a robust framework to quantify local model errors is still lacking. While the local uncertainty of PCE prediction can be captured using bootstrap resampling, other methods offering more rigorous statistical guarantees are needed, especially in the context of small training datasets. Recently, conformal predictions have demonstrated strong potential in machine learning, providing statistically robust and model-agnostic prediction intervals. Due to its generality and versatility, conformal prediction is especially valuable, as it can be adapted to suit a variety of problems, making it a compelling choice for PCE-based surrogate models. In this contribution, we explore its application to PCE-based surrogate models. More precisely, we present the integration of two conformal prediction methods, namely the full conformal and the Jackknife+ approaches, into both full and sparse PCEs. For full PCEs, we introduce computational shortcuts inspired by the inherent structure of regression methods to optimize the implementation of both conformal methods. For sparse PCEs, we incorporate the two approaches with appropriate modifications to the inference strategy, thereby circumventing the non-symmetrical nature of the regression algorithm and ensuring valid prediction intervals. Our developments yield better-calibrated prediction intervals for both full and sparse PCEs, achieving superior coverage over existing approaches, such as the bootstrap, while maintaining a moderate computational cost.

The impressive generalization performance of modern neural networks is attributed in part to their ability to implicitly memorize complex training patterns.Inspired by this, we explore a novel mechanism to improve model generalization via explicit memorization.Specifically, we propose the residual-memorization (ResMem) algorithm, a new method that augments an existing prediction model (e.g., a neural network) by fitting the model's residuals with a nearest-neighbor based regressor.The final prediction is then the sum of the original model and the fitted residual regressor.By construction, ResMem can explicitly memorize the training labels.We start by formulating a stylized linear regression problem and rigorously show that ResMem results in a more favorable test risk over a base linear neural network.Then, we empirically show that ResMem consistently improves the test set generalization of the original prediction model across standard vision and natural language processing benchmarks.

In video analysis, an important challenge is insufficient annotated data due to the rare occurrence of the critical patterns, and we need to provide discriminative frame-level representation with limited annotation in some applications. Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) is suitable for this scenario. However, many MIL models paid attention to analyzing the relationships between instance representations and aggregating them, but neglecting the critical information from the MIL problem itself, which causes difficultly achieving ideal instance-level performance compared with the supervised model.To address this issue, we propose the $\textbf{\textit{Regressor-Guided MIL network} (RGMIL)}$, which effectively produces discriminative instance-level representations in a general multi-classification scenario. In the proposed method, we make full use of the $\textit{regressor}$ through our newly introduced $\textit{aggregator}$, $\textbf{\textit{Regressor-Guided Pooling} (RGP)}$. RGP focuses on simulating the correct inference process of humans while facing similar problems without introducing new parameters, and the MIL problem can be accurately described through the critical information from the $\textit{regressor}$ in our method.

Accurate forecasting of urban air pollution is essential for protecting public health and guiding mitigation policies. While Deep Learning (DL) and hybrid pipelines dominate recent research, their complexity and limited interpretability hinder operational use. This study investigates whether lightweight additive models -- Facebook Prophet (FBP) and NeuralProphet (NP) -- can deliver competitive forecasts for particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$, PM$_{10}$) in Beijing, China. Using multi-year pollutant and meteorological data, we applied systematic feature selection (correlation, mutual information, mRMR), leakage-safe scaling, and chronological data splits. Both models were trained with pollutant and precursor regressors, with NP additionally leveraging lagged dependencies. For context, two machine learning baselines (LSTM, LightGBM) and one traditional statistical model (SARIMAX) were also implemented. Performance was evaluated on a 7-day holdout using MAE, RMSE, and $R^2$. Results show that FBP consistently outperformed NP, SARIMAX, and the learning-based baselines, achieving test $R^2$ above 0.94 for both pollutants. These findings demonstrate that interpretable additive models remain competitive with both traditional and complex approaches, offering a practical balance of accuracy, transparency, and ease of deployment.

A large language model's (LLM's) out-of-distribution (OOD) generalisation ability is crucial to its deployment. Previous work assessing LLMs' generalisation performance, however, typically focuses on a single out-of-distribution dataset. This approach may fail to precisely evaluate the capabilities of the model, as the data shifts encountered once a model is deployed are much more diverse. In this work, we investigate whether OOD generalisation results generalise. More specifically, we evaluate a model's performance across multiple OOD testsets throughout a finetuning run; we then evaluate the partial correlation of performances across these testsets, regressing out in-domain performance. This allows us to assess how correlated are generalisation performances once in-domain performance is controlled for. Analysing OLMo2 and OPT, we observe no overarching trend in generalisation results: the existence of a positive or negative correlation between any two OOD testsets depends strongly on the specific choice of model analysed.

Given a training dataset, the goal of dataset distillation is to derive a synthetic dataset such that models trained on the latter perform as well as those trained on the training dataset. In this work, we develop and analyze an efficient dataset distillation algorithm for supervised learning, specifically regression in $\mathbb{R}^d$, based on matching the losses on the training and synthetic datasets with respect to a fixed set of randomly sampled regressors without any model training. Our first key contribution is a novel performance guarantee proving that our algorithm needs only $\tilde{O}(d^2)$ sampled regressors to derive a synthetic dataset on which the MSE loss of any bounded linear model is nearly the same as its MSE loss on the given training data. In particular, the model optimized on the synthetic data has close to minimum loss on the training data, thus performing nearly as well as the model optimized on the latter. Complementing this, we also prove a matching lower bound of $Ω(d^2)$ for the number of sampled regressors showing the tightness of our analysis. Our second contribution is to extend our algorithm to offline RL dataset distillation by matching the Bellman loss, unlike previous works which used a behavioral cloning objective. This is the first such method which leverages both, the rewards and the next state information, available in offline RL datasets, without any policy model optimization. Our algorithm generates a synthetic dataset whose Bellman loss with respect to any linear action-value predictor is close to the latter's Bellman loss on the offline RL training dataset. Therefore, a policy associated with an action-value predictor optimized on the synthetic dataset performs nearly as well as that derived from the one optimized on the training data. We conduct experiments to validate our theoretical guarantees and observe performance gains.