regressor
Calibrating conditional risk
Vasilyev, Andrey, Wang, Yikai, Li, Xiaocheng, Chen, Guanting
We introduce and study the problem of calibrating conditional risk, which involves estimating the expected loss of a prediction model conditional on input features. We analyze this problem in both classification and regression settings and show that it is fundamentally equivalent to a standard regression task. For classification settings, we further establish a connection between conditional risk calibration and individual/conditional probability calibration, and develop theoretical insights for the performance metric. This reveals that while conditional risk calibration is related to existing uncertainty quantification problems, it remains a distinct and standalone machine learning problem. Empirically, we validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the practical implications of conditional risk calibration in the learning to defer (L2D) framework. Our systematic experiments provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments, offering guidance for future research in uncertainty-aware decision-making.
Demographic Parity Tails for Regression
Le, Naht Sinh, Denis, Christophe, Hebiri, Mohamed
Demographic parity (DP) is a widely studied fairness criterion in regression, enforcing independence between the predictions and sensitive attributes. However, constraining the entire distribution can degrade predictive accuracy and may be unnecessary for many applications, where fairness concerns are localized to specific regions of the distribution. To overcome this issue, we propose a new framework for regression under DP that focuses on the tails of target distribution across sensitive groups. Our methodology builds on optimal transport theory. By enforcing fairness constraints only over targeted regions of the distribution, our approach enables more nuanced and context-sensitive interventions. Leveraging recent advances, we develop an interpretable and flexible algorithm that leverages the geometric structure of optimal transport. We provide theoretical guarantees, including risk bounds and fairness properties, and validate the method through experiments in regression settings.
- North America > United States > California (0.04)
- Europe > France (0.04)
Graph Energy Matching: Transport-Aligned Energy-Based Modeling for Graph Generation
Balcerak, Michal, Shit, Suprosana, Prabhakar, Chinmay, Kaltenbach, Sebastian, Albergo, Michael S., Du, Yilun, Menze, Bjoern
Energy-based models for discrete domains, such as graphs, explicitly capture relative likelihoods, naturally enabling composable probabilistic inference tasks like conditional generation or enforcing constraints at test-time. However, discrete energy-based models typically struggle with efficient and high-quality sampling, as off-support regions often contain spurious local minima, trapping samplers and causing training instabilities. This has historically resulted in a fidelity gap relative to discrete diffusion models. We introduce Graph Energy Matching (GEM), a generative framework for graphs that closes this fidelity gap. Motivated by the transport map optimization perspective of the Jordan-Kinderlehrer-Otto (JKO) scheme, GEM learns a permutation-invariant potential energy that simultaneously provides transport-aligned guidance from noise toward data and refines samples within regions of high data likelihood. Further, we introduce a sampling protocol that leverages an energy-based switch to seamlessly bridge: (i) rapid, gradient-guided transport toward high-probability regions to (ii) a mixing regime for exploration of the learned graph distribution. On molecular graph benchmarks, GEM matches or exceeds strong discrete diffusion baselines. Beyond sample quality, explicit modeling of relative likelihood enables targeted exploration at inference time, facilitating compositional generation, property-constrained sampling, and geodesic interpolation between graphs.
- Asia > Middle East > Jordan (0.24)
- North America > United States > Massachusetts (0.04)
- Europe > Switzerland > Zürich > Zürich (0.04)
- North America > United States > Illinois > Cook County > Chicago (0.04)
- North America > United States > California (0.04)
- Europe > Spain > Catalonia > Barcelona Province > Barcelona (0.04)
Consistency of the $k$-Nearest Neighbor Regressor under Complex Survey Designs
We study the consistency of the $k$-nearest neighbor regressor under complex survey designs. While consistency results for this algorithm are well established for independent and identically distributed data, corresponding results for complex survey data are lacking. We show that the $k$-nearest neighbor regressor is consistent under regularity conditions on the sampling design and the distribution of the data. We derive lower bounds for the rate of convergence and show that these bounds exhibit the curse of dimensionality, as in the independent and identically distributed setting. Empirical studies based on simulated and real data illustrate our theoretical findings.
- North America > United States > New York > New York County > New York City (0.14)
- North America > United States > Texas (0.04)
- Asia > China (0.04)
- North America > United States > Pennsylvania > Allegheny County > Pittsburgh (0.04)
- North America > Canada (0.04)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.14)
- South America > Paraguay > Asunción > Asunción (0.04)
- Europe > France (0.04)