reg
Controlling False Discovery in Arbitrarily Structured Hypothesis Spaces via Reproducing Kernels
Perets, Binyamin, Mannor, Shie
Large-scale hypothesis testing is central to modern science, where controlling the False Discovery Rate (FDR) has become the standard approach to managing false positives across many simultaneous tests. Hypotheses rarely exist in isolation; they often exhibit structure through proximity, connectivity, or hierarchy. This structure represents both a challenge and an opportunity: while classical methods treat these dependencies as obstacles requiring conservative correction, leveraging them can substantially increase discovery power. Here, we reframe structured FDR control as a regularized learning problem. By optimizing within a suitable Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), we introduce a framework that unifies continuous domains, graphs, and hierarchies under a single algorithm through kernel choice alone. This formulation enables smooth solutions in place of the piecewise-constant fits of prior methods, principled likelihood-based hyperparameter selection rather than heuristic tuning, and inference at unobserved locations which in turn supports sample-efficient experimental design. Building on this estimator, we provide two decision rules which we prove to control the FDR. We validate our method on two sources: spatial locations derived from high-dimensional real-world datasets, and a differential gene expression task utilizing protein-protein interaction graphs.
Supplementary material for " Regret Bounds for Multilabel Classification in Sparse Label Regimes "
This appendix contains all proofs of the results mentioned in the main body of the paper, plus further results which have been omitted there due to space limits. We recall the following lemma which upper bounds the probability measure of the ball around a point x X that contains its kth nearest neighbors. The proof immediately follows from the multiplicative Chernoff bound (see, e.g., Lemma 3.2 in [28]). When combined with Assumption 5.1 we obtain the following corollary. Corollary A.2. Suppose that the measure-smoothness assumption (Assumption 5.1) holds with parameters ฮป, Cฮป, k k.
Prediction-powered Inference by Mixture of Experts
Gu, Yanwu, Kong, Linglong, Xia, Dong
The rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) industry has produced diverse yet powerful prediction tools, each with its own network architecture, training strategy, data-processing pipeline, and domain-specific strengths. These tools create new opportunities for semi-supervised inference, in which labeled data are limited and expensive to obtain, whereas unlabeled data are abundant and widely available. Given a collection of predictors, we treat them as a mixture of experts (MOE) and introduce an MOE-powered semi-supervised inference framework built upon prediction-powered inference (PPI). Motivated by the variance reduction principle underlying PPI, the proposed framework seeks the mixture of experts that achieves the smallest possible variance. Compared with standard PPI, the MOE-powered inference framework adapts to the unknown performance of individual predictors, benefits from their collective predictive power, and enjoys a best-expert guarantee. The framework is flexible and applies to mean estimation, linear regression, quantile estimation, and general M-estimation. We develop non-asymptotic theory for the MOE-powered inference framework and establish upper bounds on the coverage error of the resulting confidence intervals. Numerical experiments demonstrate the practical effectiveness of MOE-powered inference and corroborate our theoretical findings.