Many applications require statistically valid inference across many related "tasks", while using only a handful of high-quality labels per hypothesis. In AI evaluation, these tasks may correspond to model behaviors across prompts, subgroups, or hypotheses; in social science surveys, they may correspond to related questions, populations, or measurement conditions. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) uses abundant but inexpensive proxy measurements to improve inference from limited, "ground-truth" labels, but commonly used methods treat tasks independently and therefore fail to exploit shared structure across related tasks. This limitation is especially important in settings where only a small number of labels are available per task. To address this issue, we introduce a multi-task prediction-powered inference framework that uses labeled data from related tasks to improve power while preserving task-specific inference. Our methods exploit the shared structure in the proxy-ground-truth relationship through cross-task recalibration, while retaining within-task rectification and power tuning to construct accurate point estimates and confidence intervals. We prove that efficiency gains beyond power-tuned PPI are only possible when the proxy-ground-truth relationship contains nonlinear structure; affine cross-task recalibrations are asymptotically equivalent to using the original proxy. We complement our theoretical findings with experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets, as well as a case study auditing language models on election-related information during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Using a large human-annotation study, we show that cross-task recalibration can substantially reduce confidence interval widths when labels are scarce.

Recent advancements in vision-language models (VLMs) have leveraged large language models (LLMs) to achieve performance on par with closed-source systems like GPT-4V. However, deploying these models in real-world scenarios, particularly on resource-constrained devices, remains challenging due to their substantial computational demands. This has spurred interest in distilling knowledge from large VLMs into smaller, more efficient counterparts. A key challenge arises here from the diversity of VLM architectures, which are built on different LLMs and employ varying token types-differing in vocabulary size, token splits, and token index ordering. To address this challenge of limitation to a specific VLM type, we present Generation after Recalibration (GenRecal), a general-purpose distillation framework for VLMs. GenRecal incorporates a Recalibrator that aligns and adapts feature representations between heterogeneous VLMs, enabling effective knowledge transfer across different types of VLMs. Through extensive experiments on multiple challenging benchmarks, we demonstrate that GenRecal significantly improves baseline performances, eventually outperforming large-scale open- and closed-source VLMs.

Recent work has uncovered promising ways to extract well-calibrated confidence estimates from language models (LMs), where the model's confidence score reflects how likely it is to be correct. However, while LMs may appear well-calibrated over broad distributions, this often hides significant miscalibration within narrower slices (e.g., systemic over-confidence in math can balance out systemic under-confidence in history, yielding perfect calibration in aggregate). To attain well-calibrated confidence estimates for any slice of a distribution, we propose a new framework for few-shot slice-specific recalibration. Specifically, we train a recalibration model that takes in a few unlabeled examples from any given slice and predicts a curve that remaps confidence scores to be more accurate for that slice. Our trained model can recalibrate for arbitrary new slices, without using any labeled data from that slice. This enables us to identify domain-specific confidence thresholds above which the LM's predictions can be trusted, and below which it should abstain. Experiments show that our few-shot recalibrator consistently outperforms existing calibration methods, for instance improving calibration error for PaLM2-Large on MMLU by 16%, as compared to temperature scaling.