Members of Congress, the U.S. military, and prominent technologists have raised the alarm that the U.S. is at risk of losing an Artificial Intelligence (AI) arms race. China already has leveraged strategic investment and planning, access to massive data, and suspect business practices to surpass the U.S. in some aspects of AI implementation. There are worries that this competition could extend to the military sphere with serious consequences for U.S. national security. During the prior Cold War arms race era, U.S. policymakers and the military expressed consternation about a so-called "missile gap" with the USSR that potentially gave the Soviets military superiority. Echoes of gap anxiety continue today.

Are China's ambitions to "lead the world" in artificial intelligence (AI) by 2030 credible? China's rapid emergence as an AI powerhouse is often hyped and sensationalized, variously provoking alarm and enthusiasm that can sometimes overshadow the reality of real progress. At the same time, critical challenges remain in China's quest to become "the world's premier AI innovation center" and build up an AI industry of 1 trillion RMB (about $150 billion) in the process. In China's "rise" in AI, the active efforts of private enterprises have predated more recent policy support. However, since the State Council released the New Generation AI Development Plan in July 2017, there have been a number of indicators that its implementation is advancing throughout all levels of government.

The Defense Science Board's much-anticipated "Autonomy" study sees promise and peril in the years ahead. The good news: autonomy, artificial intelligence, and machine learning could revolutionize the way the military spies on enemies, defends its troops, or speeds its supplies to the front lines. The bad news: AI in commercial and academic settings is moving faster than the military can keep up. Among the most startling recommendations in the study: the United States should take "immediate action" to figure out how to defeat new AI-enabled operations.