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Nonparametric Regression Discontinuity Designs with Survival Outcomes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Quasi-experimental evaluations are central for generating real-world causal evidence and complementing insights from randomized trials. The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that can be used to estimate the causal effect of treatments that are assigned based on a running variable crossing a threshold. Such threshold-based rules are ubiquitous in healthcare, where predictive and prognostic biomarkers frequently guide treatment decisions. However, standard RD estimators rely on complete outcome data, an assumption often violated in time-to-event analyses where censoring arises from loss to follow-up. To address this issue, we propose a nonparametric approach that leverages doubly robust censoring corrections and can be paired with existing RD estimators. Our approach can handle multiple survival endpoints, long follow-up times, and covariate-dependent variation in survival and censoring. We discuss the relevance of our approach across multiple areas of applications and demonstrate its usefulness through simulations and the prostate component of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial where our new approach offers several advantages, including higher efficiency and robustness to misspecification. We have also developed an open-source software package, $\texttt{rdsurvival}$, for the $\texttt{R}$ language.


RDD: Retrieval-Based Demonstration Decomposer for Planner Alignment in Long-Horizon Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To tackle long-horizon tasks, recent hierarchical vision-language-action (VLAs) frameworks employ vision-language model (VLM)-based planners to decompose complex manipulation tasks into simpler sub-tasks that low-level visuomotor policies can easily handle. Typically, the VLM planner is finetuned to learn to decompose a target task. This finetuning requires target task demonstrations segmented into sub-tasks by either human annotation or heuristic rules. However, the heuristic subtasks can deviate significantly from the training data of the visuomotor policy, which degrades task performance. To address these issues, we propose a Retrieval-based Demonstration Decomposer (RDD) that automatically decomposes demonstrations into sub-tasks by aligning the visual features of the decomposed sub-task intervals with those from the training data of the low-level visuomotor policies. Our method outperforms the state-of-the-art sub-task decomposer on both simulation and real-world tasks, demonstrating robustness across diverse settings. Code and more results are available at rdd-neurips.github.io.


On the consistency theory of high dimensional variable screening

Neural Information Processing Systems

V ariable screening is a fast dimension reduction technique for assisting high dimensional feature selection. As a preselection method, it selects a moderate size subset of candidate variables for further refining via feature selection to produce the final model. The performance of variable screening depends on both computational efficiency and the ability to dramatically reduce the number of variables without discarding the important ones. When the data dimension p is substantially larger than the sample size n, variable screening becomes crucial as 1) Faster feature selection algorithms are needed; 2) Conditions guaranteeing selection consistency might fail to hold. This article studies a class of linear screening methods and establishes consistency theory for this special class. In particular, we prove the restricted diagonally dominant (RDD) condition is a necessary and sufficient condition for strong screening consistency.


Exploration by Random Distribution Distillation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Exploration remains a critical challenge in online reinforcement learning, as an agent must effectively explore unknown environments to achieve high returns. Currently, the main exploration algorithms are primarily count-based methods and curiosity-based methods, with prediction-error methods being a prominent example. In this paper, we propose a novel method called \textbf{R}andom \textbf{D}istribution \textbf{D}istillation (RDD), which samples the output of a target network from a normal distribution. RDD facilitates a more extensive exploration by explicitly treating the difference between the prediction network and the target network as an intrinsic reward. Furthermore, by introducing randomness into the output of the target network for a given state and modeling it as a sample from a normal distribution, intrinsic rewards are bounded by two key components: a pseudo-count term ensuring proper exploration decay and a discrepancy term accounting for predictor convergence. We demonstrate that RDD effectively unifies both count-based and prediction-error approaches. It retains the advantages of prediction-error methods in high-dimensional spaces, while also implementing an intrinsic reward decay mode akin to the pseudo-count method. In the experimental section, RDD is compared with more advanced methods in a series of environments. Both theoretical analysis and experimental results confirm the effectiveness of our approach in improving online exploration for reinforcement learning tasks.


Recursive Decomposition with Dependencies for Generic Divide-and-Conquer Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reasoning tasks are crucial in many domains, especially in science and engineering. Although large language models (LLMs) have made progress in reasoning tasks using techniques such as chain-of-thought and least-to-most prompting, these approaches still do not effectively scale to complex problems in either their performance or execution time. Moreover, they often require additional supervision for each new task, such as in-context examples. In this work, we introduce Recursive Decomposition with Dependencies (RDD), a scalable divide-and-conquer method for solving reasoning problems that requires less supervision than prior approaches. Our method can be directly applied to a new problem class even in the absence of any task-specific guidance. Furthermore, RDD supports sub-task dependencies, allowing for ordered execution of sub-tasks, as well as an error recovery mechanism that can correct mistakes made in previous steps. We evaluate our approach on two benchmarks with six difficulty levels each and in two in-context settings: one with task-specific examples and one without. Our results demonstrate that RDD outperforms other methods in a compute-matched setting as task complexity increases, while also being more computationally efficient.


Online Collision Risk Estimation via Monocular Depth-Aware Object Detectors and Fuzzy Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a monitoring framework that infers the level of autonomous vehicle (AV) collision risk based on its object detector's performance using only monocular camera images. Essentially, the framework takes two sets of predictions produced by different algorithms and associates their inconsistencies with the collision risk via fuzzy inference. The first set of predictions is obtained through retrieving safety-critical 2.5D objects from a depth map, and the second set comes from the AV's 3D object detector. We experimentally validate that, based on Intersection-over-Union (IoU) and a depth discrepancy measure, the inconsistencies between the two sets of predictions strongly correlate to the safety-related error of the 3D object detector against ground truths. This correlation allows us to construct a fuzzy inference system and map the inconsistency measures to an existing collision risk indicator. In particular, we apply various knowledge- and data-driven techniques and find using particle swarm optimization that learns general fuzzy rules gives the best mapping result. Lastly, we validate our monitor's capability to produce relevant risk estimates with the large-scale nuScenes dataset and show it can safeguard an AV in closed-loop simulations.


Predicting the Target Word of Game-playing Conversations using a Low-Rank Dialect Adapter for Decoder Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dialect adapters that improve the performance of LLMs for NLU tasks on certain sociolects/dialects/national varieties ('dialects' for the sake of brevity) have been reported for encoder models. In this paper, we extend the idea of dialect adapters to decoder models in our architecture called LoRDD. Using MD-3, a publicly available dataset of word game-playing conversations between dialectal speakers, our task is Target Word Prediction (TWP) from a masked conversation. LoRDD combines task adapters and dialect adapters where the latter employ contrastive learning on pseudo-parallel conversations from MD-3. Our results for en-IN conversations on two models (Mistral and Gemma) show that LoRDD outperforms four baselines on TWP, while bridging the performance gap with en-US by 12% on word similarity and 25% on accuracy. The focused contribution of LoRDD is in its promise for dialect adaptation of decoder models.


On the consistency theory of high dimensional variable screening

Neural Information Processing Systems

Variable screening is a fast dimension reduction technique for assisting high dimensional feature selection. As a preselection method, it selects a moderate size subset of candidate variables for further refining via feature selection to produce the final model. The performance of variable screening depends on both computational efficiency and the ability to dramatically reduce the number of variables without discarding the important ones. When the data dimension p is substantially larger than the sample size n, variable screening becomes crucial as 1) Faster feature selection algorithms are needed; 2) Conditions guaranteeing selection consistency might fail to hold. This article studies a class of linear screening methods and establishes consistency theory for this special class. In particular, we prove the restricted diagonally dominant (RDD) condition is a necessary and sufficient condition for strong screening consistency.


ATM Fraud Detection using Streaming Data Analytics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Gaining the trust and confidence of customers is the essence of the growth and success of financial institutions and organizations. Of late, the financial industry is significantly impacted by numerous instances of fraudulent activities. Further, owing to the generation of large voluminous datasets, it is highly essential that underlying framework is scalable and meet real time needs. To address this issue, in the study, we proposed ATM fraud detection in static and streaming contexts respectively. In the static context, we investigated a parallel and scalable machine learning algorithms for ATM fraud detection that is built on Spark and trained with a variety of machine learning (ML) models including Naive Bayes (NB), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Tree (GBT), and Multi-layer perceptron (MLP). We also employed several balancing techniques like Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) and its variants, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), to address the rarity in the dataset. In addition, we proposed a streaming based ATM fraud detection in the streaming context. Our sliding window based method collects ATM transactions that are performed within a specified time interval and then utilizes to train several ML models, including NB, RF, DT, and K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN). We selected these models based on their less model complexity and quicker response time. In both contexts, RF turned out to be the best model. RF obtained the best mean AUC of 0.975 in the static context and mean AUC of 0.910 in the streaming context. RF is also empirically proven to be statistically significant than the next-best performing models.


Top Apache Spark Interview Questions with Answers

#artificialintelligence

List of Data Engineer Interview questions for Apache Spark... Apache Spark Spark Architecture Apache Spark follows a master/slave architecture with two main daemons and a cluster manager - i. Master Daemon — (Master/Driver Process) ii. Worker Daemon -(Slave Process) A spark cluster has a single Master and any number of Slaves/Workers. The driver and the…